OUTLOOK
Rain chances increase across the region through today as tropical moisture from Tropical Storm Isaias interacts with a stalling front. The storm will pass near the Georgia and Carolina coasts today and then through eastern North Carolina tonight, enhancing our risk of heavy rainfall and isolated flooding. A more typical summertime pattern of afternoon and evening thunderstorms will then return for the remainder of the week.
DAY SPONSOR
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Local News Brief
Macon County Board of Education approves Plan B for upcoming school year [LINK]
General Forecast Through Wednesday Night
Today
Patchy fog in the morning. Showers and thunderstorms likely, then occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11am. Highs ranging from near 70 in the higher elevations to near 80 in the lower elevations. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three-quarters of an inch possible.
Monday Night
Patchy fog after midnight. Showers and thunderstorms likely before midnight, then scattered showers.. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from the upper 50s in the higher elevation to the lower 60s in the lower elevations. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tuesday
Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs ranging from the lower 70s in the higher elevations to the low-to-mid 80s in the lower elevations. Calm winds in the morning, then increasing to come out of the west around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with lows ranging from the upper 50s in the higher elevations to the lower 60s in the lower elevations. Light winds out of the north.
Wednesday
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with highs ranging from the low-to-mid 70s in the higher elevation to the low-to-mid 80s in the lower elevations. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Mostly clear, with lows ranging from the upper 50s in the higher elevations to the lower 60s in the lower elevations.
Hazards
Scattered thunderstorms will continue early this morning. Locally heavy rainfall is a concern, as storms may repeatedly move over the same areas, producing an isolated flood risk. Cloud-to-ground lightning may occur with any of the storms.
Tuesday
Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage during the day today, continuing to produce locally heavy rainfall. Isolated flash flooding may occur. As Tropical Storm Isaias makes its nearest pass to our region early Tuesday, breezy and occasionally gusty winds may develop. A few trees could fall in areas where soils are saturated by the heavy rainfall.
Air Quality
As Hurricane Isaias gains latitude today, cloud cover will begin to increase and chances for rainfall will return. The outer rainbands should reach the region this afternoon, with the greatest impacts from the storm expected late today into Tuesday. Although onshore flow and cloud cover will help to keep ozone levels in check, lingering light amounts of Saharan Dust off the southern US coast could filter into the region prior to the arrival of widespread precipitation, resulting in slightly elevated levels of fine particle pollution during the first half of the day. Overall, heavy cloud cover, increasing chances for precipitation, and increasing wind speeds will help to keep daily maximum AQI values in the Code Green range. For more information regarding Tropical Storm Isaias, please navigate to the National Hurricane Center website at http://nhc.noaa.gov.
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Tropical Weather
(The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th)
Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Isaias, located just offshore of east-central Florida.
1. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the area of disturbed weather located a few hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands does not have a surface circulation, and the associated shower activity is not well organized. However, environmental conditions could allow for some slow development of this system during the next several days, with a tropical depression possibly forming later this week. This system is forecast to move northwestward at about 15 mph over the southwestern Atlantic today and on Tuesday and then stall several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda by the middle to latter part of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Tropical Storm Isaias
Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020
Isais has not become better organized on satellite and radar imagery at this time. The cyclone continues to produce vigorous deep convection but this convection continues to be displaced to the northeast of the center, and convective banding features are ill-defined. Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations show that the central pressure has not fallen since earlier today, and flight-level and SFMR-observed surface wind measurements from the aircraft indicate that the intensity remains near 60 kt. Although Isais will be moving through an environment of fairly strong southwesterly shear during the next day or so, it will also be traversing the warm waters of the Gulf Stream with its high oceanic heat content. The latter factor could result in the system becoming a hurricane near landfall. The official forecast is close to the intensity consensus, which keeps Isaias just below hurricane strength.
It should be emphasized that there is little difference between a strong tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane, in terms of impacts.
After landfall, the interaction with land and strong shear should result in steady weakening. Based on the global models, the cyclone is likely to become an extratropical cyclone after it moves into Canada and dissipate over the north Atlantic shortly thereafter.
The motion continues to be slightly west of due north or 345/8 kt. There has been no significant change to the track forecast reasoning. Over the next couple of days, Isaias is expected to accelerate north-northeastward on the east side of a large 500 mb trough over the eastern United States and then turn northeastward in 3 to 4 days as it moves through the mid-latitude westerlies.
The official track forecast is very close to the previous one and similar to the latest corrected dynamical model consensus. This is between the GFS, which shows a slightly faster motion and the ECMWF, which is slightly slower.
Key Messages:
1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of 2 to 4 feet above ground level from Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina along the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along the North Carolina coast from Cape Fear to Duck. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.
2. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area from Florida to Maryland through early Tuesday. Isaias is expected to be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of northern South Carolina and southern North Carolina Monday night, and strong tropical storm force winds are likely with hurricane conditions possible in the Hurricane Watch area.
3. Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic, is expected through midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic.
4. Tropical storm conditions are forecast to spread northward across the remainder of the U.S east coast on Tuesday and early Wednesday. A tropical storm watch is in effect through Long Island Sound and additional watches and warnings will likely be issued on Monday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 28.5N 79.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 29.7N 80.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 32.2N 79.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 35.9N 77.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0000Z 40.5N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/1200Z 45.5N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/0000Z 50.0N 65.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/0000Z 55.5N 56.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
End Daily Weather Segment
Begin COVID-19 Update
Here are some numbers from the CDC, the NCDHHS, and the Johns Hopkins Dashboard. Macon Media prefers the Johns Hopkins Dashboard because the counts include those non-residents that are left out of the CDC and NCDHHS numbers.
The CDC website [LINK] reports 123,876 people in North Carolina are infected, 1,964 have died, and infections are widespread, the NCDHHS website [LINK] reports 125,219 confirmed cases from 1,813,510 targeted tests, and 1,142 hospitalized and 1,924 deaths in the state. The Johns Hopkins Dashboard [LINK] reports 122,298 people infected and 1,942 deaths.
North Carolina Coronavirus Map and Case Count [LINK] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/north-carolina-coronavirus-cases.html
Data from Macon County Public Health as of July 27th and graph by Macon Media of data from May 30th to July 27th [LINK]
Please note there is a gap for Saturdays and Sundays starting two weekends ago since the health department will no longer be reporting numbers on those days.
456 Detected Cases (+6 in one day)
74 Active Positive (unchanged)
379 Recovered (+6 in one day)
3 Deaths (unchanged)
Testing Data for Macon County
4187 MCPH Tests (+73 in one day)
1427 Tests by Others (unchanged)
5614 Total Tests (+73 in one day)
305 Tests Pending Results (+68 in one day)
And here is the weekly Demographic Update from Macon County Public Health released on Wednesday, July 29th. The next demographic update will be on Wednesday, August 6th.
Infographic from Johns Hopkins University [LINK]
Resources for Reliable Information about the Corona Virus (COVID-19) [LINK]
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Published at 4:30am Monday, August 03, 2020
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