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Friday, July 31, 2020

News and Weather Briefing for Friday, July 31, 2020







OUTLOOK

Typical mid-summer warmth will persist through the weekend, with numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. From Sunday through early Tuesday, Hurricane Isaias will pass near the Georgia and Carolina coasts. The storm`s most likely impact would be to enhance the risk of heavy rainfall across some portion of our area.



General Forecast Through Sunday Night


Today

Widespread fog in the morning. A chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs ranging from the mid-70s in the higher elevations to the mid-80s in the lower elevations. Calm winds early, then increasing to come out of the northwest around 5 mph by midmorning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight

A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog before 2am, then patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday

A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with highs ranging from the mid-to-upper 70s in the higher elevations to the mid-to-upper 80s in the lower elevations. Calm winds in the morning, then increasing to come out of the south 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday Night

A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a slight chance of showers between 11pm and 2am. Partly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Winds out of the south wind around 5 mph becoming calm before midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday

A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with highs ranging from the mid-70s in the higher elevations to the mid-80s in the lower elevations. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday Night

A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.



Hazards

Numerous thunderstorms are expected today, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will also be slow-moving, producing heavy rain over a short period of time. Flooding of low-lying and poor- drainage areas will be possible. A few storms may produce more significant flash flooding. An isolated severe storm can not be ruled out.


Air Quality



A weak frontal boundary will remain stalled north of the NC/VA border. With ongoing south to southwesterly flow continuing to transport abundant maritime moisture to the region, diurnal heating may result in numerous to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity once again. The increased cloud cover and chances for precipitation will help to impede the formation of ozone, which should hold in the Code Green range. The continued chances for rainfall will also help keep fine particle pollution levels in check and should maintain PM in the Code Green range.



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Tropical Weather
(The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th)

Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan








Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Hurricane Isaias, located near the southeastern Bahamas.

1. An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This low has a small window of opportunity to become a tropical depression today while it moves northward at about 10 mph before environmental conditions become less conducive for development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A westward-moving tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing a limited amount of shower activity. Some slow development of this system is possible while it turns northwestward over the western Atlantic early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Hurricane Isaias



Hurricane Isaias Special Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1200 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter found that Isaias has become a hurricane. Maximum flight-level winds so far were 87 kt at 850 mb, with believable SFMR values of at least 65 kt. A blend of these values gives an initial wind speed of 70 kt. Some further strengthening is likely over the next 24 hours before increasing southwesterly shear could weaken the system. The intensity forecast is modified upward from 5-10 kt through 48 hours and unchanged after that time.

There are no changes to the previous track forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.

2. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas overnight, central and northwestern Bahamas late Friday and Saturday, and Hurricane Warnings are in effect for these areas. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the Florida east coast beginning Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. While storm surge watches are not currently needed for this area, they may be required on Friday if the forecast track shifts closer to the coast. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect South Florida and east-Central Florida beginning late Friday night, potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

4. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge late this weekend from the northeastern Florida coast and
spreading northward along the remainder of the U.S. east coast through early next week. The details of the track and intensity forecast remain uncertain, and it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts, but interests along the entire U.S. east coast should monitor the progress of Isaias and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0400Z 20.4N 72.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 21.6N 73.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 23.5N 76.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 25.2N 77.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 26.7N 79.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 28.3N 79.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 30.0N 79.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 34.6N 76.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 42.0N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH






End Daily Weather Segment








Begin COVID-19 Update




Here are some numbers from the CDC, the NCDHHS, and the Johns Hopkins Dashboard. Macon Media prefers the Johns Hopkins Dashboard because the counts include those non-residents that are left out of the CDC and NCDHHS numbers.

The CDC website [LINK] reports 116,087 people in North Carolina are infected, 1,820 have died, and infections are widespread, the NCDHHS website [LINK] reports 117,850 confirmed cases from 1,691,434 targeted tests, and 1,291 hospitalized and 1,865 deaths in the state. The Johns Hopkins Dashboard [LINK] reports 118,387 people infected and 1,888 deaths.

North Carolina Coronavirus Map and Case Count [LINK]

Data from Macon County Public Health as of July 30th and graph by Macon Media of data from May 30th to July 30th [LINK


Please note there is a gap for Saturdays and Sundays starting two weekends ago since the health department will no longer be reporting numbers on those days.





450 Detected Cases (+7 since Friday)
74 Active Positive (unchanged since Friday)
373 Recovered (+7 in one day since Friday)
3 Death (unchanged since Friday)

Testing Data for Macon County

4114 MCPH Tests (+97 since Friday)
1427 Tests by Others (+30 since Friday)
5541 Total Tests (+265 since Friday)
237 Tests Pending Results (+83 since Friday)


And here is the weekly Demographic Update from Macon County Public Health released on Wednesday, July 29th. The next demographic update will be on Wednesday, August 6th.




Infographic from Johns Hopkins University [LINK]





Resources for Reliable Information about the Corona Virus (COVID-19) [LINK]



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Published at 5:00am Friday, July 31, 2020











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