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Thursday, July 30, 2020

News and Weather Briefing for July 30, 2020







OUTLOOK

An active weather pattern will persist across the region into the weekend with typical mid-summer warmth and numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. From Sunday onward, our attention will turn to the tropics.


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General Forecast Through Saturday Night


Today

Widespread dense fog in the morning. Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Highs ranging from the lower 70s in the higher elevations to the lower 80s in the lower elevations. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms likely before 11pm, then a chance of showers. Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday

Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Highs ranging from the mid-70s in the higher elevation to the mid-80s in the lower elevations. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday Night

Showers and thunderstorms likely before 2am, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Light winds out of the west. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 4pm. Partly sunny, with highs ranging from the mid-70s in the higher elevations to the mid-80s in the lower elevations. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night

Showers and thunderstorms likely before 11pm, then a chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


Hazards

Thunderstorms will be numerous to widespread again today and Friday, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and gusty winds could accompany any storm. Thunderstorms will also be slow-moving, producing heavy rain over a short period of time. Flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas will be possible. A few storms may produce more significant flash flooding. An isolated severe storm can not be ruled out.

Air Quality



An H5 low will move across eastern Canada today, resulting in an upper-level trough over the eastern US. A shortwave is expected to move into the mid-Atlantic region, which will help provide lift; with abundant moisture in place, this will result in widespread showers and thunderstorms and plentiful cloud cover. The unsettled weather will help keep air quality Code Green.



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Tropical Weather
(The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th)

Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan








Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Isaias, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea.

1. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, located a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during the next day or two before environmental conditions become unfavorable.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE



Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM AST Wed Jul 29 2020

Observations from recent scatterometer passes over the system show that it now has a sufficiently well-defined center to be designated as a tropical cyclone. The current intensity is estimated to be 45 kt, but these winds are currently occurring over the Atlantic waters well to the north and northeast of the center. Since the cyclone is expected to move over Hispaniola on Thursday some weakening is likely within the next 24 hours. However since Isaias has such a broad wind field, the weakening will probably not be as significant as in a typical tropical cyclone with a small radius of maximum winds. Also, a re-formation of the center to the north of Hispaniola may occur. Later in the forecast period some strengthening is likely, although this may be offset by southwesterly wind shear on the order of 20 kt in 2-3 days. The official forecast is close to the intensity model consensus but well below the latest LGEM guidance.

The scatterometer data show that the center of the system is south of the previously estimated track, so there is a lot of uncertainty in the initial motion estimate of 285/17 kt. Isaias should move on a west-northwestward to northwestward track on the southern and southwestern side of a mid-tropospheric ridge. In 2-3 days, the system is expected to turn north-northwestward due to a weakness in the ridge and an approaching trough. Later in the forecast period, the trough should cause Isaias to turn toward the northeast. The official track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one and a little west of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks. It should be noted that further adjustments to the forecast tracks are indeed possible, especially after Isaias moves north of Hispaniola.


Key Messages:

1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and over the southeastern Bahamas.

2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through tonight and will spread westward to portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos and the Central Bahamas on Thursday and Friday. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for these areas. Do not focus on the details of the track forecast, as rainfall and wind hazards will extend far from the center of the system.

3. While this system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and Florida later this week and this weekend, it is too soon to determine the location or magnitude of those impacts. Interests there should monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast over the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 15.8N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 17.6N 69.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 19.4N 72.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 31/1200Z 21.4N 74.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 01/0000Z 22.9N 77.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 24.8N 79.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 26.6N 80.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 03/0000Z 30.0N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 04/0000Z 35.0N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND




End Daily Weather Segment








Begin COVID-19 Update




Here are some numbers from the CDC, the NCDHHS, and the Johns Hopkins Dashboard. Macon Media prefers the Johns Hopkins Dashboard because the counts include those non-residents that are left out of the CDC and NCDHHS numbers.

The CDC website [LINK] reports 116,087 people in North Carolina are infected, 1,820 have died, and infections are widespread, the NCDHHS website [LINK] reports 117,850 confirmed cases from 1,691,434 targeted tests, and 1,291 hospitalized and 1,865 deaths in the state. The Johns Hopkins Dashboard [LINK] reports 118,387 people infected and 1,888 deaths.

North Carolina Coronavirus Map and Case Count [LINK] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/north-carolina-coronavirus-cases.html

Data from Macon County Public Health as of July 27th and graph by Macon Media of data from May 30th to July 27th [LINK


Please note there is a gap for Saturdays and Sundays starting two weekends ago since the health department will no longer be reporting numbers on those days.





448 Detected Cases (+3 in one day)
72 Active Positive (+1 in one day)
373 Recovered (+2 in one day)
3 Death (unchanged in one day)

Testing Data for Macon County

4114 MCPH Tests (+42 in one day)
1335 Tests by Others (unchanged in one day)
5449 Total Tests (+42 in one day)
255 Tests Pending Results (-12 in one day)

And here is the weekly Demographic Update from Macon County Public Health released on Wednesday, July 29th. The next demographic update will be on Wednesday, August 6th.




Infographic from Johns Hopkins University [LINK]



Resources for Reliable Information about the Corona Virus (COVID-19) [LINK]



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Published at 4:45am Thursday, July 30, 2020








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