The Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland has issued a Mesoscale Discussion regarding the heavy rainfall that is headed our way. An inch or two of rain is expected in Macon County with isolated locations with southward facing slopes potentially seeing 3 inches. The local National Weather Service Office may issue flood watches or warnings if conditions warrant.
Be careful if you have to travel in the next few hours and watch out for water ponding or water runoff on the roadways. Slow down and increase your following distance.
A copy of the discussion is posted below.
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0022
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019
Areas affected...Enter areas affected
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 232016Z - 240300Z
Summary...Locally heavy rainfall remains possible across portions of southeast MS, southern AL into portions of GA/TN/NC this evening. 1-3" will be possible with the greatest risk of 3-4" totals across southern AL. This may lead to localized flash flooding through 03z.
Discussion...Ahead of a broad mid/upper level trough moving through the central/southern US, a surge of Gulf moisture has advected northward, bringing PWATs of 1.5" into portions of southern MS/AL. A recent RAP analysis showed a narrow axis of MUCAPE of a few hundred J/kg as far north as central AL, as a warm front gradually lifts northward.
Across southern MS and AL, there is a narrow time range where the best forcing and limited instability overlap across southeast MS and into southern AL where hourly rain totals of 1 to locally 2" will remain possible. The mean flow remains favorable for training and repeating rounds of storms with 850 mb winds out of the southwest at 50-60 kts. There is a decent signal seen in the hi-res models and supported by the HREF mean for areal averages of 1-2" through 03z with localized higher amounts reaching 3-4". These types of totals could support localized flash flooding, particularly over sensitive and urban areas.
Further north across northern GA, eastern TN, and southwest NC, moderate rainfall is expected for a several hour period through this evening all within a broad area of isentropic lift. Although rainfall totals will be on the lower side (1-2", locally higher amounts possible), this rainfall falling on colder/harder grounds in terrain areas could result in flooding and possibly isolated flash flooding. Hi-res models are suggesting the higher totals could fall across far northern GA into southwest NC, particularly within any upslope/favored areas.
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Published at 3:51 pm on January 23, 2019
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