Black Swans and Wild Skies

CATASTROPHIC BLACK SWANS

The arrival of global guerrillas -- small groups that can successfully fight wars against states -- is merely the first expression of a much larger trend line. The larger trend is a radical improvement in the productivity of warfare through the use of mechanisms outside of the control of the state. Since there have been no strides in eliminating the drivers of warfare at the small group level (in fact, just the opposite has happened) and our core systems remain hopelessly concentrated/interconnected, the use of this newly emergent productivity is inevitable.

If we follow this trend line, the path in development is clear. First, over the next decade, the size of the group necessary for global warfare will continue to decrease and decentralize (through a near term shift to systems disruption and open source organizational forms). Second, we will eventually reach a point when the weaponry available to these groups will enable them to initiate a catastrophic black swan (an event that is impossible to predict).

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I am not all that sure an al-Qaeda nuke smuggled into a U.S. city would destroy our country, nor three or four. It would hurt us, for sure, but I believe that Katrina taught us that these things are survivable. The fabric of American Society will not be rent asunder.

Wild Skies

The clouds were spectacular yesterday, and I have an example for you below.