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Wednesday, April 5, 2017

Severe Thunderstorm Coverage PM Edition
Wednesday, April 5, 2017



SEVERE WEATHER LIVE BLOG
April 5, 2017
6:30 pm

This is where material will go for live coverage for people who don't have facebook. Posts will be in reverse chronological order (newest at the top and oldest at the bottom).

You can also click on the graphics/maps to embiggen them to a larger size.

Local Public Safety Radio Traffic

Live Audio of local Public Safety Radio Traffic so you can be aware of what areas to avoid and so you can get the gist of local weather conditions is available at MaconScan.com. It is a function of public safety to have radio traffic available so the public can be aware of potential local hazards and they can know when it is dangerous to be out and about and what areas to avoid for their own safety.

LIVE BLOG BEGINS BELOW THIS POINT




**11:35 pm**



I believe the worst is over for us in Macon County and we've only got one more band of heavy rain to come through, and it is not really producing much lightning. Most of the severe stuff was to the south of us. Goodnight, people!

The image above is a frame grab from a video of a lightning strike somewhere between Otto and Highlands as seen from Franklin, NC.





**10:40 pm**



Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1026 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

GAZ010-017-NCZ062>064-060315-
Rabun GA-Habersham GA-Transylvania NC-Southern Jackson NC-Macon NC-
1026 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

...A SERIES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HABERSHAM...RABUN...SOUTHEASTERN MACON...TRANSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM EDT...

At 1022 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a series of strong thunderstorms moving from Clayton, Georgia to Brevard, North Carolina, with a forward speed around 50 mph. These thunderstorms  will bring wind gusts of 45 mph to the ground across mountain areas along the Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina state borders.  In addition, very heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour  will be possible in the heaviest downpours.

Locations to be impacted include...
Clayton, Brevard, Highlands, Mountain City, Rosman, Tiger, Dillard,
Sky Valley, Cashiers and Lake Toxaway.

The wind gusts may be strong enough to knock down a few trees, especially in locations with saturated soil conditions. In addition, deep ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas may  result. Do not drive through any flooded roadways. Turn around and  find another route.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across flooded roads.



**9:35 pm**


The Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland has issued a Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion regarding the potential for flooding caused by already areas already saturated by previous rounds of rain coupled with more rain on the way over the next few hours could cause flooding. A map and the text of the discussion follows.



MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0104
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
935 PM EDT WED APR 05 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN AL...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
GA...WESTERN SC

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 060130Z - 060530Z

SUMMARY...REDEVELOPING BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS GIVEN THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 IR DATA SHOWS ADDITIONAL COOLING OF CONVECTIVE TOPS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING. A WELL-DEFINED INSTABILITY AXIS IS POOLED FROM THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE NORTH UP ACROSS EASTERN AL AND INTO NORTHWEST GA...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WHICH COUPLED WITH LARGER SCALE ASCENT ARRIVING FROM THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS HELPING TO FACILITATE THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN GA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THIS WILL TEND TO ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO...BUT THE CONCERN WILL BE AT LEAST SHORT-TERM HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL BE FALLING OVER AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY AGGRAVATE RUNOFF CONCERNS AND PROMOTE AT LEAST SOME SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS GIVEN THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.









**9:25 pm**



Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
924 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

GAZ010-017-NCZ062-060200-
Rabun GA-Habersham GA-Macon NC-
924 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HABERSHAM...RABUN AND MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

At 924 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 4 miles northeast of Hiawassee to 14 miles southeast of Hayesville to 7 miles north of Cleveland, and moving northeast at 65 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Franklin, Clayton, Highlands, Mountain City, Tiger, Dillard, Sky Valley, MOCCASIN CREEK STATE PARK, Lake Burton and Moccasin Creek State Park.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and TV stations, as well as local cable TV outlets for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.




**8:40 pm**



The line of storms that formed a couple of hours ago in central Tennessee are coming past the Chattanooga area at this time and some of them have become quite strong. The map is from ZoomRadar.com, a good source for radar of severe storms and, if you click on the glowing green car icons, you can see live video streaming from storm chasers. The red star indicates the location of Franklin, NC.





**8:00 pm**

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued a Mesoscale Discussion regarding conditions that are favorable for the continued develop of severe thunderstorms. The storms headed our way will be encountering a wedge of cool air that may limit their potential to produce tornadoes when they cross our region. It is possible the storms may weaken below the severe threshold. the full text is posted below the map.



Mesoscale Discussion 0452
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0657 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017

   Areas affected...Central and eastern Kentucky...central and eastern
   Tennessee...eastern Alabama...and northwestern Georgia

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 127...

   Valid 052357Z - 060045Z

   CORRECTED FOR TEXT

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 127 continues.

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms capable of all severe modes continue across the region at this time.

   DISCUSSION...The severe weather threat continues across portions of WW 127 just ahead of a surface trough/dryline that extends from central Kentucky southward to near Selma, Alabama.  Storms just ahead of this trough have developed into broken bands with occasional mesocyclones and bow echoes across central Kentucky.  The presence of backed low-level flow across this region and around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE has fostered updraft rotation in a few of the more isolated cells.

   Farther south, more cellular convection has developed amidst a weakly capped, moderately unstable airmass.  A few mesocyclones have developed with the stronger storms, although somewhat veered flow in Alabama has fostered splitting supercells and have perhaps hindered the tornado threat there somewhat.  Furthermore, low-level backed flow in portions of far eastern Alabama and northern Georgia has occurred amidst cooler surface temperatures as the region remains influenced by an ongoing MCS farther east across South Carolina.

Thus far, storms have not been able organize stronger low-level mesocyclogenesis as a result of the more backed low-level flow, likely owing to cellular convection becoming quickly elevated once the move into the rain-cooled airmass over Georgia/far eastern Alabama.  The tornado potential still remains with this activity, especially as cells cross into this rain-cooled airmass.  Damaging wind gusts and especially large hail remain likely with this activity.

   With time, storms across KY/TN portions will reach the eastern    extent of WW 127 within the next 1-2 hours.  The eastern extent of  the severe threat is uncertain with this activity owing to a more stable downstream airmass.


**6:40 pm**



A little over 200 Duke Energy customers are without electrical service in the Nantahala area. A map above approximates the area impacted by this outage.
Duke Energy is currently assessing the damage and has no estimate of when service will be restored. An additional customer is out on Hurst Circle in the Franklin area and there is no estimate of a time power might be restored at that location as well.




**6:30 pm**

Storms are firing up to our west along and ahead of a cold front that is making its way to our region. They will arrive sometime after 8 pm and are expected to quickly exit Macon County. These storms will have the potential to produce large and and damaging winds.

The National Weather Service has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook that includes Macon County. The text follows

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A round of thunderstorms will move into the region this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. These thunderstorms will present primary threats of large hail and damaging winds.


..THURSDAY...High winds possible. In the wake of the cold front, strong west to northwest winds will develop across the area. Winds may become strong enough from Thursday into Thursday night to cause at least isolated downed trees and power lines. Accumulating snow will also be possible at the highest elevations.

..FRIDAY...High winds possible. Threat for elevated winds continues into Friday, tapering off Friday afternoon.









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