...Threats of severe weather and flash flooding will impact areas from the Southern Plains to the Southeast today and Monday...
...An increase in snow will occur through the Rockies...
A low pressure system moving through the Southern Plains will be the primary driver for both the severe weather and flash flooding in the southern U.S. over the next few days. A cold front is currently moving eastward across central Texas this morning. This will eventually combine with a secondary low pressure system and emerging warm front that will lift north from the Gulf of Mexico during the day today. The merged system will bring plenty of moisture and instability across Texas as it continues to slowly progress eastward, reaching the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. The best convection is expected to develop along and just ahead of the cold front. The Storm Prediction Center has placed eastern Texas, central and northern Louisiana, and far southwest Mississippi in a moderate risk of severe weather for today through tonight (please check www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov for more information). There will also be a slight risk for flash flooding across eastern Texas and portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Flash flood watches are currently in effect along the Gulf Coast as a result. The low pressure system will then eject northeastward during the day Monday--pushing the risk of severe weather and flash flooding eastward as well. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of the Southeast in a Moderate Risk for severe weather for Monday. In addition, the northward progression of the system will result in rain and thunderstorm chances for much of the eastern U.S. Monday and Tuesday.
Another cold front will drop southeast across the Intermountain West and Rockies over the next couple of days. This will bring precipitation chances to these regions, with higher elevation snow expected today, generally in the northern Rockies. As the front progresses southward tonight and Monday, precipitation will occur throughout the Central Great Basin and Central Rockies--including higher elevation snow. Precipitation/snow is expected to increase Monday night into Tuesday, mainly across Colorado, as a low pressure system develops and intensifies along the southern extent of the frontal boundary as it pushes across the Southern Rockies and Southwest.
Dry high pressure will dominate the local weather pattern through Sunday before rain chances increase on Monday. A strong upper system and associated cold front will move into the picture for Monday afternoon and evening yielding greater chances for showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe. Conditions will dry out through Tuesday before another cold frontal system moves in on Wednesday evening bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. The end of the week will be highlighted by the return to below normal temperatures and temperatures that will be below freezing Thursday night and early Friday. The higher elevations (above 4,000 feet or so) could see some snow if enough moisture is present.
Weather Almanac for April 2nd (1872-2016)
Record weather events for this date in Macon County
Highest Temperature 85°F at the Coweeta Experimental Statio in 1946
Lowest Temperature 15°F in Highlands in 1987
Greatest Rainfall 4.30 inches in Highlands in 1920
Greatest Snowfall 0.5 inches in Highlands in 1915
THREE DAY OUTLOOK
Sunny with highs near the lower 70s. Calm winds in the morning, then from the southeast in the afternoon.
Increasing clouds and lows near 50 and calm winds. Slight chance of rain, mainly after 3 am.
Cloudy with highs near the mid to upper 60s and winds from the southeast 5 to 10 mph. Rain chances increase from 30% at 6 am to near 100% at 6 pm. Rainfall amounts between a half an inch to an inch is possible. Rain will be heavy at times, with the potential for flash flooding. Severe thunderstorms are also possible in the late afternoon time frame.
Showers and thunderstorms with lows near the lower 50s and winds out of the southeast before midnight and then shifting to come out of the southwest and west after midnight. Locations that are hit by thunderstorms could see torrential rainfall. Rainfall amounts between half an inch and an inch are possible.
Mostly sunny with highs near the low to mid 70s and winds out of the west between 5 to 10 mph. Rain chances end by 7 am or so.
Partly cloudy with-lows in the mid 40s.
No hazardous weather expected today. The National Weather Service expects that severe thunderstorms will arrive in the region Monday afternoon with the main concerns being damaging winds, large hail and torrential rainfall. Localized flash flooding is possible in locations that are hit by multiple storms.
A copy of the Hazardous Weather Outlook that has been issued by the National Weather Service is posted below:
..MONDAY...Severe weather possible. A potent upper level system will move atop the region Monday afternoon through overnight. Conditions are expected to be favorable for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms. The primary threats will be damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding. Although the tornado threat is lower for this region, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
As always, you can check to see what advisories, watches and warnings are in effect for Macon County by visiting http://is.gd/MACONWARN
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BUILDING A RECOVERY COMMUNITY
APRIL 6th at 6 pm in the Drake Education Center at 210 Phillips Street
Donald McDonald will be the main speaker.
For more information, contact Kay 706-970-9987 or Perry 828-200-3000
2016 FIRE SIZE PRESENTATION
The United States Forest Service will be making a presentation will cover the organization of suppression resources, cooperative efforts, suppression repair activities and future Forest Service restoration activities at Tartan Hall on April 6th.
More information is on the blog at http://thunderpigblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/2016-fire-size-presentation-scheduled.html
SYRINGE EXCHANGE PROGRAM
On January 1, 2017, the Syringe Exchange Program of Franklin began operating a comprehensive harm reduction program to address the opioid epidemic that is effecting western NC. Opioid overdose reversal kits including naloxone are available free of charge. If you have any questions about our services or if you know someone interested in volunteering, please contact Stephanie Almeida at 828-475-1920.
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Published at 5:15 am on April 2, 2017
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