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Thursday, July 11, 2019

Daily Weather Briefing for Thursday, July 11, 2019





Outlook

A weak front dropping down from the northwest today into Friday will bring another round of numerous showers and storms. A slow warming trend with decreased thunderstorm chances can be expected late this weekend into early next week.

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THREE DAY GFS FORECAST
This animated image shows a forecast of precipitation, air pressure and thickness level (cold-air damming) for three days in six-hour increments.
Green, Yellow, and Red indicate rain. Orange and Purple Indicate Freezing Rain or other freezing precipitation. Blue indicates snow.





WEATHER SPONSOR



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Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC. Visit our Facebook page at:
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Weather Hazards

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Any thunderstorm that develops will be capable of producing strong gusty winds, brief heavy rainfall, and cloud to ground lightning. A few of these thunderstorms may become severe and produce damaging wind gusts. In addition, localized flooding and flash flooding will be possible if thunderstorms persist over the same areas.


**Note** A Tropical Weather Outlook section has been added to the daily weather briefing for the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and since those tend to run long when there is activity, that section has been added between the daily forecasts for the four regions of the county and the almanac section so people can get to their daily forecasts with minimal interference.




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WEATHER FORECAST MAPS

Forecast maps for 7 am, 1 pm, and 7 pm.
[click on any image in this article to enlarge]




FRANKLIN AREA FORECAST


Today

A chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after noon. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high in the mid-80s. Light winds out of the southwest. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 7pm. Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low in the mid-to-upper 60s. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 3pm. Patchy fog in the morning. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high in the mid-80s. Light and variable winds increasing to come out of the northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday Night

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low in the mid-60s. Light winds out of the northwest. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high in the mid-80s. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night

A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a chance of showers between 11pm and 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 30%.



OTTO AREA FORECAST

Today

A chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after noon. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high in the mid-80s. Calm winds increasing to come out of the southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low in the mid-to-upper 60s. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Patchy fog in the morning. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high in the lower 80s. Winds out of the west 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday Night

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low in the mid-60s. Light winds out of the northwest. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high in the low-to-mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night

A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a chance of showers between 11pm and 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low in the mid-60s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.




HIGHLANDS PLATEAU FORECAST

Today

A chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after noon. Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Calm winds increasing to come out of the southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tonight

A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low in the mid-60s. Winds out of the southwest around 6 mph. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Winds out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday Night

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low in the low-to-mid 60s. Winds out of the northwest around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night

A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a chance of showers between 11pm and 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low in the mid-60s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.



NANTAHALA AREA FORECAST

Today

A chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after noon. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Calm winds increasing to come out of the southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8pm. Patchy fog before 2am, then patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, onwith a low in the mid-60s. Light winds out of the southwest. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high in the mid-to-upper 70s. Winds out of the west 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday Night

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low in the low-to-mid 60s. Winds out of the west around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night

A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then a chance of showers between midnight and 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low in the low-to-mid 60s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK



Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, located over the northern Gulf of Mexico. (a copy is posted below)

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.



Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

The system is becoming better organized, and it is almost a tropical depression. Satellite images show a persistent area of deep convection near the estimated center with loosely organized bands surrounding that feature. Earlier, the NOAA Hurricane Hunters found that the pressure has dropped a little to 1009 mb, although the center is not yet well defined. The estimated initial intensity is still 25 kt based on surface observations and the NOAA dropsonde data.

The broad low is moving west-southwestward at about 8 kt. The track models are in general agreement that a mid-level ridge centered over the Rockies should cause the system to move slowly westward on Thursday and west-northwestward on Friday. After that time, however, the models diverge considerably with some solutions showing an abrupt northward turn toward a weakness in the ridge and others showing a more gradual one. The latest GFS run has shifted to the west of its previous track, closer to the previous NHC forecast, while the HWRF model has shifted to the right. Based on the overall guidance spread, this track forecast is nudged to the east of the previous forecast to be closer to the various consensus models, which typically are the most reliable. However, this forecast is still near the western edge of the model envelope. It should be noted that track errors are typically larger for potential tropical cyclones than more mature systems. In addition, the run-to-run consistency in the track models has been poor, so confidence in the details of the forecast is not high at the moment.

Since the system is still in the formative stage, only slow strengthening is likely during the next 12 hours or so. However, after that time more significant strengthening is likely due to very warm SSTs across the northern Gulf of Mexico, a fairly moist atmosphere, and a favorable upper-level pattern over the system. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and shows the system becoming a tropical storm on Thursday and a hurricane by late Friday. Additional strengthening is likely beyond the 48-hour point and the time it makes landfall, which is predicted to occur in a little less than 3 days. This forecast is fairly close to the IVCN and HCCA models.

Key Messages:

1. A tropical depression is expected to form on Thursday over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for this system to strengthen to a hurricane that will bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to the central Gulf Coast.

2. A dangerous storm surge is possible in portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Additional storm surge watches may be needed on Thursday. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and listen to any advice given by local officials.

3. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for much of the Louisiana coast and additional tropical storm or hurricane watches and warnings could be needed on Thursday. Residents in the watch area should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant, especially along and east of the track of the system.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 27.7N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 11/1200Z 27.6N 88.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 12/0000Z 27.6N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 27.9N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 28.3N 91.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 30.2N 92.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 15/0000Z 32.8N 92.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 16/0000Z 35.5N 92.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND


Tropical Tidbits

Here is a discussion of the tropical situation from one of the best amateur meteorologists on the internet.


Website tropicaltidbits.com
Patreon patreon.com/Tropicaltidbits
Youtube Page (Latest Uploads) https://www.youtube.com/user/Meridionaljet/videos?view=0&flow=grid
Facebook facebook.com/tropicaltidbits/
Twitter twitter.com/TropicalTidbits

An outlook from Mark Suddoth of HurricaneTrack.com that was posted July 10th


You can follow Mark's work at the following locations:

Website http://hurricanetrack.com/
Youtube Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxxWE4Xpsv_UU5QGT7S-jyA
Twitter https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack
Facebook https://www.facebook.com/HurricaneTrack/

Video of the 2018 Hurricane Season as experienced by Mark and his cameras is available at Amazon https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07SPFJKL3/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=tracking+the+hurricanes+2018&qid=1559674211&s=gateway&sr=8-1




Macon Media Almanac for July 11, 2019

Highest Temperature 93°F in Franklin in 1981
Lowest Temperature 42°F in Highlands in 1918
Greatest Rainfall 6.57 inches in Highlands in 1948
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snow has been recorded on this date since records started being kept in 1872


Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of July
Data available from 1872 to 2018

Highest Temperature 101°F in Franklin on 07-29-1952
Lowest Temperature 34°F in Highlands on 07-27-1911
Greatest Rainfall 21.15 inches in Highlands on 07-29-1879
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873

Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of July
Data available from 1870 to 2018

Highest Temperature 109°F Albemarle, Stanly County 07-28-1940
Lowest Temperature 32°F Celo, Yancey County 07-10-1961
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 21.15 in Highlands, Macon County 07-29-1879

Monthly Averages

Warmest Weather Station 81.3°F Fayetteville, Cumberland County
Coldest Weather Station 60.4°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 7.97 in Wilmington, New Hanover County
Driest Weather Station 2.97 in Asheville, Buncombe County




Published at 4:20am on July 11, 2019


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