Outlook
Dry and warm conditions are expected through the middle of next week, as upper-level high pressure builds across the region. Increasing humidity is expected to allow afternoon showers and thunderstorms to gradually return next week.
Video of the September 2019 Franklin Town Council Meeting
Macon Media has posted a video of the latest meeting of the Franklin Town Council online. [LINK]
THREE DAY GFS FORECAST
This animated image shows a forecast of precipitation, air pressure and thickness level (cold-air damming) for three days in six-hour increments.
Green, Yellow, and Red indicate rain. Orange and Purple Indicate Freezing Rain or other freezing precipitation. Blue indicates snow.
WEATHER SPONSOR
Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing & public safety updates for the month.
Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC. Visit our Facebook page at:
https://www.facebook.com/Adams.Oldcastle.Franklin.NC/
All your masonry needs are available. Our phone number is 828.524.8545, the public is welcome, we’ll help you with your next project.
Weather Hazards
Hazardous weather is not expected today.
**Note** A Tropical Weather Outlook section has been added to the daily weather briefing for the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and since those tend to run long when there is activity, that section has been added between the daily forecasts for the four regions of the county and the almanac section so people can get to their daily forecasts with minimal interference.
CROWDFUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES
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WEATHER FORECAST MAPS
Forecast maps for 7 am, 1 pm, and 7 pm.
[click on any image in this article to enlarge]
FRANKLIN AREA FORECAST
Today
Sunny, with a high in the mid-to-upper 80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Winds out of the northwest around 5 mph becoming calm before midnight.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high in the upper 80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Winds out of the northwest around 5 mph becoming calm before midnight.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 90. Light winds out of the north.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the lower 60s.
OTTO AREA FORECAST
Today
Sunny, with a high in the mid-80s. Winds out of the north 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low in the lower 60s. Winds out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high in the mid-to-upper 80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph by midmorning.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Winds out of the northwest around 5 mph becoming calm before midnight.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high in the upper 80s. Calm winds.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the lower 60s.
HIGHLANDS PLATEAU FORECAST
Today
Sunny, with a high in the mid-70s. Winds out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Winds out of the northwest 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 75. Winds out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the upper 50s. Winds out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph shifting to come out of the east after midnight.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 75. Winds out of the east around 5 mph in the morning becoming light and variable in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
NANTAHALA AREA FORECAST
Today
Patchy fog in the morning. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 80. Winds out of the north 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Winds out of the northwest 3 to 6 mph.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high in the low-to-mid 80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the northwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the mid-to-upper 50s. Light and variable winds.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 85. Light and variable winds.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK we are entering the peak hurricane season
(video from Levi Cowan of Tropical Tidbits and Mark Sudduth of HurricaneTrack.com have been added to this segment below the tropical outlook and will remain as long as they cover this storm)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, located near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and on Tropical Storm Gabrielle, located nearly 1000 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
1. A small area of low pressure located several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda is producing limited showers and thunderstorms, well to the southeast of the center. Development of this system is expected to be limited due to unfavorable upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands are associated with a tropical wave. Development, if any, will be slow to occur while it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
3. A broad area of low pressure along a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean through early next week. Enhanced rainfall is possible across the Cabo Verde Islands through early Friday as the disturbance moves through the region.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Hurricane Dorian
(Official Information about Hurricane Dorian is posted below, followed by material from a couple of amateur meteorologists that have a proven track record of being reliable and sober reporters)
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019
Data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes and surface data nearby Dorian indicate that although the central pressure is a little bit lower, and NOAA Doppler weather radar data from Wilmington and Morehead City indicate that winds have decreased as the circulation of the hurricane expands. The initial intensity is now estimated to be 85 kt.
Dorian is moving toward higher shear, and gradual weakening is anticipated. As indicated in the previous forecast, extratropical transition should begin in about 48 hours and be complete by 72 hours. However, Dorian is forecast to maintain hurricane-force-winds while moving near or over Nova Scotia.
The initial motion is 045 degrees at 11 kt. The hurricane is already embedded in the southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward moving mid-latitude trough. This flow pattern should steer the hurricane on a northeastward track with increasing forward speed. Track guidance continues to be in remarkably good agreement with this solution, and the NHC forecast remains in the middle of the guidance envelope. The current forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory.
The center of Dorian is expected to move very near or over the coastline of eastern North Carolina and the southern Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Residents of these areas should already be prepared for damaging winds, life-threatening storm surges, and flooding rains. It also appears that Dorian will affect portions of eastern Canada with hurricane-force winds.
Key Messages:
1. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian's core, life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast, portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow the advice given by local emergency officials.
2. Flash flooding is occurring, and will continue to become more widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia overnight. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these areas, where significant, life-threatening flash flooding is expected.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 33.8N 77.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 35.0N 75.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 37.2N 72.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 40.2N 67.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 44.5N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 52.5N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0000Z 57.5N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
Thie above is a spaghetti plot showing an ensemble of the various computer forecasts from the GFS computer model on the potential paths DORIAN could take based on potential weather forecasts. The heavy black line shows the OFficial forecast path by the National Hurricane Center. As time progresses, that path will change as the NHC obtains better information.
The reliability of the plots decreases as time progresses on the map. I would mostly ignore anything beyond 48 hours beyond just noting if the models started to show clumping that might be an indicator that the computer models are approaching a consensus.
TROPICAL TIDBITS
Tropical Tidbits is a website run by Macon Media's favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to "make them more exciting." He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.
Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early in the evening on Youtube. [LINK]
Like Macon Media, Levi relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK]
HurricaneTrack.com
Mark Sudduth is another amateur meteorologist who is sober and not given to unnecessarily dramatize the weather. He just gives us the facts and tells us what he thinks will happen and then he goes and captures video and images of the storms and the damage they leave in their wake. You can follow his work at HurricaneTrack.com or on Youtube. [LINK]
Try visiting https://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanetrack/live to see if there is live video. Mark tends to end streams at or near the 12-hour mark.
Like Macon Media, Mark relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK]
Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of September
Data available from 1872 to 2018
Highest Temperature 98°F in Franklin on 09-04-1975
Lowest Temperature 27°F in Franklin on 09-30-1967
Greatest Rainfall 11.87 inches in Highlands on 09-27-1964
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873
Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of September
Data available from 1870 to 2018
Highest Temperature 109°F Weldon, Halifax County 09-07-1954
Lowest Temperature 23°F Marion, McDowell County 09-28-2000
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 19.30 in Southport, Brunswick County 09-16-1999
Monthly Averages
Warmest Weather Station 75.4°F Morehead City, Carteret County
Coldest Weather Station 55.0°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 8.93 in Southport, Brunswick County
Driest Weather Station 2.94 in Marshall, Madison County
Published at 5:00am on September 6, 2019
TROPICAL TIDBITS
Tropical Tidbits is a website run by Macon Media's favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to "make them more exciting." He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.
Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early in the evening on Youtube. [LINK]
Like Macon Media, Levi relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK]
HurricaneTrack.com
Mark Sudduth is another amateur meteorologist who is sober and not given to unnecessarily dramatize the weather. He just gives us the facts and tells us what he thinks will happen and then he goes and captures video and images of the storms and the damage they leave in their wake. You can follow his work at HurricaneTrack.com or on Youtube. [LINK]
Try visiting https://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanetrack/live to see if there is live video. Mark tends to end streams at or near the 12-hour mark.
Like Macon Media, Mark relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK]
Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of September
Data available from 1872 to 2018
Highest Temperature 98°F in Franklin on 09-04-1975
Lowest Temperature 27°F in Franklin on 09-30-1967
Greatest Rainfall 11.87 inches in Highlands on 09-27-1964
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873
Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of September
Data available from 1870 to 2018
Highest Temperature 109°F Weldon, Halifax County 09-07-1954
Lowest Temperature 23°F Marion, McDowell County 09-28-2000
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 19.30 in Southport, Brunswick County 09-16-1999
Monthly Averages
Warmest Weather Station 75.4°F Morehead City, Carteret County
Coldest Weather Station 55.0°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 8.93 in Southport, Brunswick County
Driest Weather Station 2.94 in Marshall, Madison County
Published at 5:00am on September 6, 2019
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