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Saturday, September 7, 2019

Daily Weather Briefing for Saturday, September 7, 2019




Outlook

Dry and warm, summerlike conditions are expected through the middle of next week, as upper-level high pressure builds across the region. Increasing humidity is expected to allow afternoon showers and thunderstorms to gradually return next week.


THREE DAY GFS FORECAST
This animated image shows a forecast of precipitation, air pressure and thickness level (cold-air damming) for three days in six-hour increments.
Green, Yellow, and Red indicate rain. Orange and Purple Indicate Freezing Rain or other freezing precipitation. Blue indicates snow.





WEATHER SPONSOR



Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing & public safety updates for the month.

Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC. Visit our Facebook page at:
https://www.facebook.com/Adams.Oldcastle.Franklin.NC/

All your masonry needs are available. Our phone number is 828.524.8545, the public is welcome, we’ll help you with your next project.



Weather Hazards

Hazardous weather is not expected today. It is very unlikely that we will experience any severe weather from Hurricane Dorian, especially with a front passing through our area and acting as a barrier for the storm.



**Note** A Tropical Weather Outlook section has been added to the daily weather briefing for the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and since those tend to run long when there is activity, that section has been added between the daily forecasts for the four regions of the county and the almanac section so people can get to their daily forecasts with minimal interference.




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WEATHER FORECAST MAPS

Forecast maps for 7 am, 1 pm, and 7 pm.
[click on any image in this article to enlarge]





FRANKLIN AREA FORECAST

Today

Mostly cloudy through midmorning, then gradual clearing, with a high in the mid-to-upper 80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph by midmorning.

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low in the upper 50s. Light winds out of the north.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high in the upper 80s. Calm winds.

Sunday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Calm winds.

Monday

Sunny, with a high near 90. Calm winds.

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with a low in the mid-60s.




OTTO AREA FORECAST

Today

Mostly cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high in the mid-80s. Winds out of the northwest 3 to 7 mph.

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low in the upper 50s. Winds out of the northwest around 5 mph becoming calm before midnight.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high in the mid-to-upper 80s. Calm winds.

Sunday Night

Mostly clear, with a low in the lower 60s. Calm winds.

Monday

Sunny, with a high near 90. Calm winds.

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with a low in the mid-60s.


HIGHLANDS PLATEAU FORECAST

Today

Sunny, with a high in the mid-70s. Winds out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Winds out of the northeast 3 to 7 mph.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high in the mid-70s. Winds out of the northeast around 5 mph becoming calm by midmorning.

Sunday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Light winds out of the southwest.

Monday

Sunny, with a high in the mid-to-upper 70s. Calm winds.

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with a low in the lower 60s.



NANTAHALA AREA FORECAST

Today

Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Winds out of the northwest 3 to 7 mph.

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low in the mid-50s. Winds out of the northwest around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high in the mid-80s. Light and variable winds.

Sunday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Calm winds.

Monday

Sunny, with a high in the mid-to-upper 80s. Calm winds.

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with a low in the low-to-mid 60s.




TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK Things are starting to heat up
(video from Levi Cowan of Tropical Tidbits and Mark Sudduth of HurricaneTrack.com have been added to this segment below the tropical outlook and will remain as long as they cover this storm)



Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, located offshore of the New England coast, and on Tropical Storm Gabrielle, located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Azores.

1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms a couple hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gradual development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while the system moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.


Hurricane Dorian
(Official Information about Hurricane Dorian is posted below, followed by material from a couple of amateur meteorologists that have a proven track record of being reliable and sober reporters)




Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 56
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

Dorian is gradually becoming less organized. The cyclone is feeling some effects of southwesterly wind shear with most of its deep convection located to the north and east of the estimated center. The initial intensity is lowered a little to 75 kt, which is in good agreement with the latest Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. A pair of ASCAT passes from several hours ago indicate that the wind field has expanded significantly, and tropical-storm-force winds have been observed over far southeastern Massachusetts.

Dorian is racing northeastward, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 050/22 kt. The hurricane is well embedded in the fast mid-latitude flow, and it should continue to move quickly northeastward toward Nova Scotia later today. After the cyclone passes Nova Scotia, it is forecast to move through Newfoundland and Labrador before turning east-northeastward over the far north Atlantic. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and not far from the various consensus aids.

Dorian is expected to gradually weaken due to even stronger southwesterly wind shear and much colder SSTs to the north of the Gulf Stream current. The combined influences of these cold waters and an approaching mid- to upper-level trough should cause Dorian to lose its tropical characteristics in about 24 hours.

However, the post-tropical cyclone will likely still be producing hurricane-force winds as it moves through portions of eastern Canada. The global models are in good agreement that the post-tropical cyclone should slowly weaken and ultimately become absorbed by another extratropical low in 3 to 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the GFS and ECMWF models, which typically handle large extratropical lows better that than the intensity models that are made for tropical cyclones.


Key Messages:

1. Regardless of whether it is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions of eastern Canada beginning later today. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland later today and tonight. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 39.7N 68.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 42.8N 64.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 46.9N 61.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 08/1800Z 50.0N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/0600Z 52.5N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/0600Z 57.5N 36.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED




Today will be the last day of material from Mark until the next storm. Since Levi is primarily a forecaster, his last post on Dorian was before it made the run paralleling the South Carolina coast. Be sure and bookmark their youtube pages for future reference or to go back through and watch their material again.


HurricaneTrack.com

Mark Sudduth is another amateur meteorologist who is sober and not given to unnecessarily dramatize the weather. He just gives us the facts and tells us what he thinks will happen and then he goes and captures video and images of the storms and the damage they leave in their wake. You can follow his work at HurricaneTrack.com or on Youtube. [LINK] https://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanetrack/videos


Try visting https://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanetrack/live to see if there is live video. Mark tends to end streams at or near the 12 hour mark.

Like Macon Media, Mark relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK] https://www.patreon.com/hurricanetrack




Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of September
Data available from 1872 to 2018

Highest Temperature 98°F in Franklin on 09-04-1975
Lowest Temperature 27°F in Franklin on 09-30-1967
Greatest Rainfall 11.87 inches in Highlands on 09-27-1964
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873

Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of September
Data available from 1870 to 2018

Highest Temperature 109°F Weldon, Halifax County 09-07-1954
Lowest Temperature 23°F Marion, McDowell County 09-28-2000
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 19.30 in Southport, Brunswick County 09-16-1999

Monthly Averages

Warmest Weather Station 75.4°F Morehead City, Carteret County
Coldest Weather Station 55.0°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 8.93 in Southport, Brunswick County
Driest Weather Station 2.94 in Marshall, Madison County



Published at 5:20am on September 7, 2019


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