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Tuesday, May 19, 2020

Daily Weather Briefing for Tuesday, May 19, 2020






OUTLOOK

A large upper low will linger over the Tennessee Valley Region through the middle of the week as it slowly weakens. This pattern will generate multiple rounds of precipitation across much of the region that continues into the latter half of the week. More typical late spring weather is expected to return over the weekend.



General Forecast Through Thursday


Today

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 5pm. Patchy fog in the morning. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the 60s to near 70. Winds out of the south 5 to 7 mph in the morning, then becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tuesday Night

Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11pm. Lows in the 50s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog before 10am. Highs in the 50s to the lower 70s. Winds out of the east 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 10pm, then showers likely between 10pm and 2am, then a chance of rain after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with lows from around 50 to the upper 40s. Calm winds early, then increasing to come out of the east around 5 mph by mid-morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday

A chance of rain before 11am, then showers likely between 11am and 3pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with highs ranging from the mid-60s to near 70. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday Night

A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 3am, then a chance of showers after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the 50s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.


Hazards

There is an increasing likelihood of excessive rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday, as periodic waves of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region. The threat for flooding will increase after sunrise on Tuesday and will remain elevated through Thursday. Across the mountains, the threat for landslide activity may also increase from tosday into Wednesday. Eventually, the flood threat along main stem rivers will also increase and remain elevated through Thursday.

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Tropical Weather
(The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th)



Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
715 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression One, located over the western Atlantic Ocean off the east-central coast of Florida.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2020. Until then, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.


Information on Tropical Storm Arthur



Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
500 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

Arthur's cloud pattern has continued to take on a generally post-tropical appearance, though a recent convective burst near its center suggests that it isn't quite post-tropical yet. Satellite imagery and earlier scatterometer data also indicate the presence of a developing warm front near the cyclone's center, and this could be contributing the the development of the aforementioned convective burst. ASCAT-C data that arrived early this morning showed maximum winds of 45-50 kt, and this was the primary basis for the initial intensity.

Virtually no change was made to the intensity forecast. Despite the recent increase of convection near Arthur's center, extratropical transition should finish fairly soon. Slight strengthening due to baroclinic forcing is possible through the afternoon, but the cyclone is forecast to begin spinning down by tonight or Wednesday morning. The global and regional models indicate that the system will dissipate within about 72 h, and this is reflected in the official forecast.

Only small adjustments were made to the track forecast, which remains near the multi-model consensus. As Arthur weakens it should be steered generally southward around the east side of a low-level ridge. The models differ on how quickly the southward turn will occur, but all agree on that general scenario. The latest NHC forecast is a little west of the previous one after 24 h.

Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coasts during the next couple of days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 37.0N 70.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 36.9N 68.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 20/0600Z 36.1N 66.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 20/1800Z 34.6N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/0600Z 33.3N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 21/1800Z 32.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED



End Daily Weather Segment







Begin COVID-19 Update




Here are some numbers from the CDC, the NCDHHS, and the Johns Hopkins Dashboard. Macon Media prefers the Johns Hopkins Dashboard because the counts include those non-residents that are left out of the CDC and NCDHHS numbers.

The CDC website [LINK] reports 18,512 people in North Carolina are infected, 659 have died, and infections are widespread, the NCDHHS website [LINK] reports 19,023 confirmed cases from 255,755 targeted tests, and 511 hospitalized and 661 deaths in the state. The Johns Hopkins Dashboard [LINK] reports 19,208 people infected and 693 deaths (these include non-residents located in NC).

Resources for Reliable Information about the Corona Virus (COVID-19) [LINK]







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Published at 5:30am on Tuesday, May 19, 2020




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