OUTLOOK
An upper-level trough across the Lower Mississippi River Valley will persist through the end of the week. This will result in highs a little below normal and elevated rain chances across the region. The upper trough will weaken over the weekend, allowing temperatures and rain chances to return to near normal as we head into next week.
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Macon Calendar
Read2Me Yard Sale
Read2Me will have their annual "Donation Only" Yard Sale on Saturday, August 22nd from 8:00 am to 12 noon. Location: Premier Marketing parking lot, 261 E Palmer Street across from the downtown Farmer's Market. Proceeds go to sponsoring Macon County children age Birth to 5 in the Dolly Parton Imagination Library.
Rain Date: August 29.
Macon County Cooperative Extension, Christy Bredenkamp will be hosting a Ginseng Workshop in September
The N.C. Cooperative Extension Service is offering a free seminar on Ginseng Production for homeowners
who desire to grow “sang.” This program will be held on Thursday September 3 rd from 6:00 – 8:00 p.m.
online via Zoom.
Topics covered will be: state regulations for growing and hunting “sang”, plant physiology, present and historical use of ginseng and comparing Asian versus American ginseng. Major time and emphasis of the program will be dedicated to the woods simulated cultural practices such as: site selection and preparation, sowing, harvesting, drying the roots and seed stratification.
To register go to the Eventbrite link at https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ginseng-production-tickets-115231454382
For more information contact the Macon County Extension Center at 828 349 2046 or e-mail Christy
Bredenkamp at clbreden@ncsu.edu
News Brief
Members of Cafeteria Teams at Macon Middle School, Mountain View Intermediate School and South Macon Elementary School Cafeteria Teams have tested positive for COVID-19 and have been isolated at home [LINK]
More Macon County COVID-19 News [LINK]
General Forecast Through Thursday Night
Today
Patchy fog. Scattered showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after noon. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs ranging from the upper 60s in the higher elevations to the upper 70s in the lower elevations. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 10pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from the upper 50s in the higher elevations to the low-to-mid 60s in the lower elevations. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday
Areas of fog in the morning. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, then showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Highs ranging from the upper 60s in the higher elevations to the upper 70s in the lower elevations. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Friday Night
Showers and thunderstorms before 4am, then a chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Saturday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with highs ranging from near 70 in the higher elevations to near 80 in the lower elevations. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 10pm, then a chance of showers between 10pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from the mid-to-upper 50s in the higher elevations to the low-to-mid 60s in the lower elevations. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Hazards
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today, especially in the afternoon and early evening. A strong to marginally severe storm or two is possible with isolated damaging wind gusts and small hail possible. Localized flooding is possible area-wide with any training storms.
Small hail and isolated gusty winds possible on Friday with any of the stronger storms. However, confidence in occurrence is low at this time due to the marginal environment. Localized flooding is possible with any training showers or storms.
Air Quality
Macon County, including the ridgetops, will be in the upper range of green today.
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Tropical Weather
(The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th)
Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly developed Tropical Depression Thirteen, located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.
1. A tropical wave and accompanying broad area of low pressure is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea. This system is gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple of days when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This system is moving westward, and interests in Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor its progress. Regardless
of development, this disturbance will likely produce heavy rains across a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico late this week and this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
2. A tropical wave over western Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This wave is expected to move over the far eastern tropical Atlantic on Friday, and some slow development is possible through the weekend while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Tropical Depression Thirteen
Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 19 2020
The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring over the central tropical Atlantic has now developed a well-defined center of circulation and maintained enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression, the thirteenth cyclone of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. The depression already has some banding features on its north and west sides as evident in geostationary satellite and microwave images. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on ASCAT data from around 0100 UTC and a T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB.
The depression has been moving fairly quickly to the west-northwest, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 295/17 kt. It should be noted that the initial motion is somewhat uncertain given that the system has only recently formed. A subtropical ridge currently over the central Atlantic is expected to build westward during the next several days and should be the primary steering feature for the depression through the forecast period. This pattern should keep the depression on a fairly quick west-northwest track during the next several days, taking the cyclone near the northern Leeward Islands by Friday night and near the Greater Antilles and southeastern Bahamas this weekend. The models are in fairly good agreement, but there is some north-south spread with the GFS being on the southern side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF on the northern end. The NHC track forecast lies down the middle of the guidance suite.
The environmental conditions appear generally favorable for the depression to strengthen, with the wind shear expected to remain relatively low while the system moves over warm SSTs and remains in a moist airmass. These conditions should promote gradual strengthening and it seems quite likely that the cyclone will be a tropical storm when it moves near or north of the northern Leeward Islands in a couple of days. The bigger question is how much interaction will there be with the Greater Antilles. If the depression moves on the south side of the guidance envelope, further strengthening would be limited due to land interaction. Conversely, if the system gains more latitude and moves north of these highly topographic islands, it could have the opportunity for more significant intensification. The NHC intensity forecast, which is of low confidence, is roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning late Friday.
2. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday and Tropical Storm Watches could be required for these islands tomorrow.
Interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system.
3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 14.6N 47.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 16.1N 50.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 17.4N 54.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 18.4N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 19.1N 62.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 19.9N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 20.8N 69.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 22.9N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 26.2N 82.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
End Daily Weather Segment
Begin COVID-19 Update
Here are some numbers from the CDC, the NCDHHS, and the Johns Hopkins Dashboard. Macon Media prefers the Johns Hopkins Dashboard because the counts include those non-residents that are left out of the CDC and NCDHHS numbers.
Earth
22,648,500 Detected Infections
792,223 Reported Deaths
USA
5,701,162 Detected Infections
176,342 Reported Deaths COVID-19 now No. 3 cause of death in US [LINK]
North Carolina
CDC [LINK]
146,774 Detected Infections
2,396 Reported Deaths
NCDHHS [LINK]
147,932 Detected Infections
1,978,094 Total Tests
1,001 Reported Current Hospitalizations
2,431 Reported Deaths
Johns Hopkins Dashboard [LINK]
147,925 Detected Infections
2,341 Reported Deaths
North Carolina Coronavirus Map and Case Count [LINK]
Data from Macon County Public Health as of yesterday afternoon and graph by Macon Media of data from May 30th to August 20th [LINK]
Please note there is a gap for Saturdays and Sundays starting two weekends ago since the health department will no longer be reporting numbers on those days.
503 Detected Cases (+6 in one day)
39 Active Positive (+4 in one day)
460 Recovered (+2 in one day)
4 Deaths (unchanged)
Testing Data for Macon County
4603 MCPH Tests (+63 in one day)
1680 Tests by Others (unchanged)
6283 Total Tests (+63 in one day)
140 Tests Pending Results (+9 in one day)
And here is the weekly Demographic Update from Macon County Public Health released on Wednesday, August 5th. The next demographic update will be on Wednesday, August 12th.
Infographic from Johns Hopkins University [LINK]
Resources for Reliable Information about the Corona Virus (COVID-19) [LINK]
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Published at 5:19am Thursday, August 20, 2020
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