OUTLOOK
Abundant tropical moisture flowing into the area around a deep ridge of high pressure will maintain cloud cover over much of the area today, and a chance of precipitation. An upper level high will strengthen over the Eastern Seaboard Wednesday and temperatures will rise above normal into the weekend. The remnants of tropical cyclones Laura and Marco will bring higher levels of moisture and increased precipitation chances, especially in the mountains for Friday and Saturday.
Macon Calendar
1st Annual Radical Love Lobster Fest [EVENT PAGE]
SATURDAY AT 12 PM – 4 PM
What better way to celebrate Stephanie's 50th birthday than with a New England lobster dinner! Come help us raise money to support Smoky Mountain Harm Reduction and the free services we provide!
Place your order before Wednesday 8/26 at 5 pm and we'll fly your lobster in fresh from Gloucester, MA! On Saturday, you can either pick up your lobster steamed with an ear of corn and a potato or cook it at home yourself. Your choice!
All proceeds will go to provide life-saving services to our most vulnerable folx in WNC. Questions? Call Stephanie at 617-828-9184.
Thanks for everyone's continued support as we work to together to keep our most vulnerable folx alive and healthy.
Macon County Cooperative Extension, Christy Bredenkamp will be hosting a Ginseng Workshop in September
The N.C. Cooperative Extension Service is offering a free seminar on Ginseng Production for homeowners who desire to grow “sang.” This program will be held on Thursday September 3 rd from 6:00 – 8:00 p.m. online via Zoom.
Topics covered will be: state regulations for growing and hunting “sang”, plant physiology, present and historical use of ginseng and comparing Asian versus American ginseng. Major time and emphasis of the program will be dedicated to the woods simulated cultural practices such as: site selection and preparation, sowing, harvesting, drying the roots and seed stratification.
To register go to the Eventbrite link at https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ginseng-production-tickets-115231454382
For more information contact the Macon County Extension Center at 828 349 2046 or e-mail Christy
Bredenkamp at clbreden@ncsu.edu
News Brief
It was a busy day in local COVID-19 news. At an emergency meeting of the Macon County Board of Education, board members voted 5-0 to close Mountain View Intermediate, Macon Middle School, and Union Academy and go to remote learning until Friday, September 11th due to staff shortages caused by COVID-19 quarantines necessitated by possible exposures to people who had tested positive for COVID-19. Franklin High School has already been on remote learning and all those schools will be re-evaluated to see if there is enough staff on hand for in-person instruction. [LINK]
President Trump visited western North Carolina yesterday and some local supporters showed their support of the president by organizing a rolling rally.
Macon Media covered the visit on Facebook. [LINK]
General Forecast Through Thursday Night
Today
Patchy fog in the morning. Occasional rain and thunderstorms before 1pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 1pm and 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 2pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs ranging from near 70 in the higher elevations to near 80 in the lower elevations. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tonight
Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday
Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 3pm. Otherwise, partly sunny, with highs ranging from the mid-70s in the higher elevations to the mid-80s in the lower elevations. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Calm wind.
Thursday
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with highs ranging from the mid-70s in the higher elevations to the mid-80s in the lower elevations. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the 60s.
Hazards
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast today. Some of these heavier thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall leading to isolated flash flooding.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms can be expected on Wednesday and Thursday and scattered to numerous thunderstorms can be expected Friday through Monday. A few storms could be strong to severe with strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.
Air Quality
Macon County, including the ridgetops, will be in the upper range of green today.
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Tropical Weather
(The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th)
Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Laura, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico to the northwest of the western tip of Cuba, and on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Marco, located west of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Tropical Storm Laura
Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020
Satellite images show that Laura is becoming better organized. Now that the center is clear from Cuba, very deep convection has developed into a ragged, pulsing central dense overcast, with a large curved band on the southern side of the circulation. The intensity is kept at 55 kt, matching the satellite estimates and a blend of the earlier flight-level and SFMR reconnaissance data. Hurricane Hunter missions from both the Air Force and NOAA should be in the storm within a couple hours to help obtain a new estimate.
After a westward jog earlier, Laura is estimated to be moving west-northwestward again or 290/15. The synoptic situation consists over a large ridge near the southeastern United States and a weakness in the ridge over Central Texas due to an inverted trough.
Laura should gradually gain latitude and turn to the northwest and north-northwest over the next two days while it is steered between those two features, move northward late this week through the southern United States, then move quickly eastward across the eastern U.S. over the weekend as it encounters the mid-latitude westerlies. The majority of the guidance has shifted a notable distance to the west on this run, perhaps due to a weaker trough over Texas and a more westward initial position of Laura (possibly due to persistent northerly mid-level shear). The new NHC prediction is at the eastern edge of the new guidance envelope since I don't want to bite off on such a large change on just one set of model runs. But since the storm has been tracking west of forecast expectations for quite some time, future westward track adjustments could be required later today.
Laura is forecast to move over the very warm and deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, with similar or lighter shear conditions through the next couple of days. Now that an inner core appears to be trying to form, conditions appear ripe for at least steady intensification, and rapid intensification is becoming more likely before landfall. In fact, almost all of the explicit guidance models, save the statistical-dynamical models, are showing a period of rapid strengthening at some point during the next couple of days.
Thus, the new NHC forecast is higher than the last one, but not as high as the most of the regional hurricane models since shear could increase just before landfall.
Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 48 h is around 80 miles and the average intensity error is close to 15 mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.
Key Messages:
1. Laura is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast as a hurricane late Wednesday and early Thursday. Do not focus on the details of the official forecast given the typical uncertainty in NHC's 2-to-3 day track and intensity predictions. In addition, storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will extend well away from Laura's center along the Gulf Coast.
2. There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge from San Luis Pass, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, within the next 48 hours, and a storm surge watch is in effect for these areas outside of the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
3. Hurricane conditions are possible by late Wednesday from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon, and a hurricane watch is in effect. Hurricane Warnings will likely be issued for a portion of that area later today.
4. The threat of widespread flash and urban flooding, along with small streams overflowing their banks, will be increasing Wednesday night into Thursday from far eastern Texas, across Louisiana, and Arkansas. This will also lead to minor-to-isolated moderate river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Friday and Saturday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 22.9N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 23.8N 87.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 25.1N 90.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 26.8N 92.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 29.3N 93.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 32.1N 93.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 28/0600Z 34.5N 93.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/0600Z 37.0N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/0600Z 39.0N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCO
Post-Tropical Cyclone Marco Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020
Marco has been devoid of any significant convection for at least 12 hours, and ASCAT scatterometer surface wind data around 0239Z suggested that Marco might have degenerated in a north-to-south elongated trough. Based on this information, Marco has been downgraded to post-tropical remnant low. Brisk southwesterly vertical wind shear of 30 kt is forecast to increase to near 35 kt in 24 hours, which should prevent the redevelopment of deep convection near the center.
Marco's remnants are expected to move generally westward along or just south of the southern coast of Louisiana for the next 24 hours or until dissipation occurs.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 28.8N 91.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 25/1800Z 28.8N 92.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
End Daily Weather Segment
Begin COVID-19 Update
It was a very busy day yesterday, so there is no COVID-19 update this morning.
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Published at 6:00am Tuesday, August 25, 2020
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