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Saturday, September 12, 2020

Weather Briefing for Saturday, September 12, 2020



OUTLOOK

A moist, easterly fetch off the Atlantic will maintain muggy conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. Unsettled weather is expected to continue Sunday into Monday ahead of a cold front which will bring cooler and drier air to the region on Tuesday.


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General forecast through Monday night


Today

Patchy fog may linger to late morning in locations. A chance of showers before noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between noon and 3pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs ranging from near 70 in the higher elevations to near 80 in the lower elevations. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight

A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog after 10pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Sunday

Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with highs ranging from near 70 in the higher elevations to near 80 in the lower elevations. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Sunday Night

Showers likely, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday

A chance of showers before noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between noon and 3pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the lower 70s in the higher elevations to the lower 80s in the lower elevations. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday Night

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. A few locations could dip into the upper 50s overnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%.



HAZARDS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect the area overnight. Heavy downpours in slow moving storms could lead to localized minor flooding, especially in poor drainage areas.

Air Quality




Air quality is in the low-to-mid-range of green today as ozone and particulate matter levels are exptected to not be a problem today.

Pollen

Pollen levels are expected to be low-medium today (4.5 out of 12) with Ragweed, grasses, and chenopods being the main alergens present oday. Tomorrow is expected to be higher, with the pollen level forecast to be 6.1 out of 12.



TROPICAL WEATHER
(The North Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to Nov 30th)



Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan (the most sober tropical forecaster in the business)







Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Paulette and Tropical Storm Rene, both located over the central Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen, located near southern Florida.

1. A surface trough over the north-central Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through the middle of next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

3. Another area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions could support development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the system moves slowly westward. After that, Upper-level winds could become less conducive for development by Tuesday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.






Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020

Doppler radar data from Miami and satellite images indicate that the depression is gradually becoming better organized. The low-level center is estimated to be near the northwestern edge of the main area of deep convection due to some northerly wind shear.

Surface observations and satellite classifications support holding the initial intensity at 30 kt. The minimum pressure appears to be a little lower than before, now 1007 mb.

The tropical depression is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. A subtropical ridge extending from the southeast U.S. to the western Atlantic should steer the depression west-northwestward across south Florida tonight and Saturday morning and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Saturday and Sunday. After that time, the ridge is forecast to weaken due to an approaching trough, but the trough is not expected to be strong enough to cause the cyclone to turn northward. Instead, the models suggest that a slow west-northwestward motion very near the northern Gulf coast is likely during the early and middle portions of next week.

Although the models all show a relatively similar scenario, there is a fair amount of spread by the time the system nears the northern Gulf coast. The NHC track forecast lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope close to the consensus aids.Several of the local National Weather Service forecast offices across the southeast U.S. will be launching weather balloons four times per day, which should provide the models with excellent data in hopes to provide better track guidance during the next couple of days.

Since the depression is expected to move over very warm SSTs, once it reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow, and remain in an environment of low wind shear and high moisture, gradualstrengthening seems likely. The models suggest that there could be an increase in westerly shear around the time the cyclone is forecast to move inland along the northern Gulf coast in about 4 days. Based on these expected environmental conditions, strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the IVCN and HCCA models. The depression will likely be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the northern Gulf coast.

Users are reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecast as the average NHC track error at96 h is around 150 miles and the average intensity error is around 15 mph. In addition, winds, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected to produce isolated flash flooding over portions of central and southern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across central Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible overnight and early Saturday along the southeast Florida coast where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible by Sunday night in portions of the Florida Panhandle, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued.

3. The system is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity by early next week as it moves across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall will be possible along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to southeastern Louisiana late this weekend and early next week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast, as Storm Surge, Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches could be issued on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 25.7N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 26.0N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 13/0000Z 26.8N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 27.9N 84.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 28.8N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 29.3N 86.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 29.7N 87.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 30.2N 89.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/0000Z 31.3N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND



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Published at 4:00am Saturday, September 12, 2020


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