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Monday, September 14, 2020

Weather Briefing for Monday, September 14, 2020



OUTLOOK

An unsettled weather pattern will continue into Monday ahead of an approaching cold front that will bring cooler and drier air to the region on Tuesday. Unsettled weather returns mid to late week as a second cold front and the remnants of Sally move over the area.


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General forecast through Wednesday night


Today

Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 3pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. Otherwise, partly sunny, with highsranging from near 70 in the higher elevations to near 80 in the lower elevations. Light winds out of the north. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight

A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10pm, then a slight chance of showers between 10pm and 1am. Mostly cloudy, with lows anging from the upper 50s in the higher elevations to the lower 60s in the lower elevations. Light winds out of the northeast. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tuesday

A 20 percent chance of showers after 11am. Partly sunny, with highs ranging from the upper 60s in the higher elevations to the upper 70s in the lower elevations. Calm winds in the early morning incresing to come out of the southeast around 5 mph by midmorning.

Tuesday Night

A 20 percent chance of showers after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the 50s. Winds out of the east around 5 mph.

Wednesday

A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly after 9am. Mostly cloudy, with highs ranging from the upper 60s in the higher elevations to the mid-70s in the lower elevations.

Wednesday Night

A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from the mid-50s in the higher elevations to near 60 in the lower elevations.



HAZARDS

Rain chances will increase mid to late week as moisture from the remnants of Sally combines with an approaching cold front. While the timing and exact path of this system is unknown at this time, heavy rainfall and localized could become a concern. Continue to monitor the forecast for the latest on Sally and the possible impacts across the area.

Air Quality




Air quality is in the upper-range of green today as ozone and particulate matter levels are exptected to not be a problem today.

Pollen

Pollen levels are expected to be medium today (5.9 out of 12) with Ragweed, grasses, and chenopods being the main alergens present oday. Tomorrow is expected to be higher (in the medium-high range), with the pollen level forecast to be 7.2 out of 12.



TROPICAL WEATHER
(The North Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to Nov 30th)



Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan (video recoded Sunday afternoon)







Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Paulette, located near Bermuda, on Tropical Depression Rene, located over the central Atlantic, on Tropical Storm Sally, centered over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, and on Tropical Depression Twenty, located over the east-central tropical Atlantic.

1. A weak area of low pressure over the west-central Gulf of Mexico continues to produce limited shower activity. Development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds while it moves slowly southwestward and then southward over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce an area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for a short-lived tropical depression to form on Monday while the low moves north-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Development is not expected by Tuesday when the system is forecast to encounter strong upper-level winds and move over colder waters.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

3. A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for slow development of the system this week as the wave moves westward at about 10 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.






Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020

Sally is gradually getting better organized. Satellite images show that deep convection has increased near the center, and the cyclone is now a little more symmetric and vertically aligned compared to earlier today. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Sally, and so far they have found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 54 kt and maximum believable SFMR winds of 49 kt, which support the 50-kt initial intensity.

Reports from the aircraft indicate that the center of Sally has jogged to the northeast, with the latest 12-hour motion estimated to be 305/7 kt. The global models show a trough exiting the northeast U.S. tomorrow and a ridge building to the north of Sally, which should cause the storm to resume a west-northwest motion at a relatively slow pace on Monday. By Monday night and Tuesday, the ridge is forecast to slide southeastward as another trough develops over the south-central U.S. This change in the pattern should cause Sally to slow down even more and gradually turn to the north and then the northeast. The new NHC tack forecast is slower and east of the previous one based on the initial position/motion and the latest models. However, the official forecast still lies west of the latest consensus aids, so further adjustments may be necessary overnight. While the current forecast shows landfall along the northern Gulf coast in 36 to 48 hours, the bottom line is that Sally is expected to be a slow- moving tropical cyclone near and over the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days.

The upper-level low that was producing northwesterly shear over Sally is moving away, resulting in a more favorable upper-level wind pattern for strengthening. These more conducive winds aloft combined with the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters and a moist air mass should allow the cyclone to steadily strengthening until Sally crosses the coast in 36 to 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies near the high end of the model guidance. After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast, and Sally is expected to become a tropical depression by 72 hours and dissipate in about 5 days.

The eastward shift in the track forecast necessitates the extension of the hurricane warning eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama border.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will move onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average forecast error at 48 hours is around 80 miles, and dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the center.

2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected by late Monday within portions of the Hurricane Warning area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions likely to begin Monday. Preparations should be rushed to completion in those areas.

4. Sally could continue to produce flash flooding across central and northern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across west-central Florida through Monday. Widespread significant flash flooding and minor to isolated major river flooding is likely across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama through the middle of the week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across the Southeast U.S. through the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 28.2N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 28.6N 87.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 29.0N 88.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 29.4N 89.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 30.3N 89.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
60H 16/1200Z 31.2N 89.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/0000Z 32.1N 88.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0000Z 33.6N 85.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED



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Published at 4:30am Monday, September 14, 2020


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