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Thursday, May 31, 2018

Daily Weather Briefing for Thursday, May 31, 2018




LOCAL NEWS

The last week or so of rain culminated in minor flooding in Macon County and more significant flooding elsewhere in the state to our east. Governor Roy Cooper declared a State of Emergency. [LINK


Here is a list of roads that were closed in Macon County per the NCDOT TIMS website: [click on the road name to view more information]

Wayah Rd (SR-1310 ) North West of Franklin / Both Directions
Needmore Rd (SR-1364 ) North of Franklin / Both Directions
Carnes Rd (SR-1370 ) North of Franklin / Both Directions
Junaluska Rd (SR-1401 ) North West of Franklin / Both Directions
Riverside Rd (SR-1644 ) South of Franklin / Both Directions
South Tryphosa Rd (SR-1683 ) South of Franklin / Both Directions


A lot of material was posted on social media about the impacts of the storm. A few examples are posted below and at [LINK].

Video from Macon County 911 of the Nantahala River:



A few photos from MaconQuad of the frequently submerged Arthur Drake Road:



MaconQuad also posted some photos of Cullasaja Falls on Facebook [LINK]

And, here are a few graphics showing some basic statistics regarding rainfall amounts and river height measured at various locations:

Gauges:

Cartoogechaye Creek Near Franklin



Little Tennessee River at Riverside



Little Tennessee River near Iotla Bridge



Rainfall totals from May 24 to May 30



LOCAL OUTLOOK

A moist airmass will then persist today into Friday, with a few waves of thunderstorms arriving from the west. Slightly drier air will mix in from the west over the weekend, but moisture may return by late weekend or early next week.

WEATHER SPONSOR



Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing & public safety updates for the month.

Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC. Visit our Facebook page at:
https://www.facebook.com/Adams.Oldcastle.Franklin.NC/

All your masonry needs are available. Our phone number is 828.524.8545, the public is welcome, we’ll help you with your with your next project.

Weather Almanac for May 31st (1872-2016)
Record weather events for this date in Macon County

Highest Temperature 90°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station in 2011
Lowest Temperature 31°F in Franklin in 1984
Greatest Rainfall 2.35 inches in Highlands in 1959

Record Weather Events for May (1872-2017)

Highest Temperature 92°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station on May 20, 1996
Lowest Temperature 23°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station on May 2, 1963
Greatest Rainfall 4.2 inches in Highlands on May 23, 1923
Greatest One-Day Snowfall 2.5 inches in Highlands on May 7, 1992

THREE DAY OUTLOOK

The images below represent the daily forecast at 8 am for today, tomorrow and the day after tomorrow. Click on any of them to enlarge.



----------------------------------
FRANKLIN AREA

TODAY

A chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 9am. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

TONIGHT

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 7pm. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

FRIDAY

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming west northwest 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

FRIDAY NIGHT

A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. West wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

SATURDAY

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.

SATURDAY NIGHT

Partly cloudy, with a low around 63.

-----------------------------------------
OTTO AREA

TODAY

A chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 9am. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

TONIGHT

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 7pm. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

FRIDAY

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 83. West wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

FRIDAY NIGHT

Showers and thunderstorms likely before midnight, then a chance of showers between midnight and 5am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Northwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

SATURDAY

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 4pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.

SATURDAY NIGHT

Partly cloudy, with a low around 63.

---------------------------------------------
HIGHLANDS AREA

TODAY

A chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 9am. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. West wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

TONIGHT

A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. West northwest wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

FRIDAY

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. West wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

FRIDAY NIGHT

Showers and thunderstorms likely before 11pm, then a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. West northwest wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

SATURDAY

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 5pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.

SATURDAY NIGHT

Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.

--------------------------------------------
NANTAHALA AREA

TODAY

A chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 8am. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. West southwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

TONIGHT

A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. West wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

FRIDAY

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. West wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT

Showers and thunderstorms likely before 11pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 11pm and midnight, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. West wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

SATURDAY

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.

SATURDAY NIGHT

Partly cloudy, with a low around 63.

----------------------------------------


GOES-16 GeoColor - True Color daytime, multispectral IR
12:02 am to 2:57 am this morning


HAZARDS

Showers and thunderstorms are expected today, some of which may include brief periods of heavy rain. If we get more than an inch or so in short order, river levels may rise again for minor flooding.

The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch that is effective until tomorrow and it has been posted below for your convenience.

Flood Watch
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1139 PM EDT Wed May 30 2018

...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

.Tropical moisture will continue to stream into the Southeast, bringing showers and embedded thunderstorms with increased rainfall rates through Thursday morning. The resulting heavy rainfall will potentially impact many locations that are already saturated from heavy rain that fell over the past two weeks. This will continue to greatly heighten the risk of flash flooding and main stem river flooding throughout the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia, as well as landslides along the steeper slopes of the mountains and adjacent foothills.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues

* until 8 AM EDT Thursday

* Rainfall totals of 3 to 7 inches have fallen across much of the eastern and southern escarpment and adjacent foothills since Tuesday morning. Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms could produce up to 1 inch of additional rainfall through Thursday morning. Due to the saturated ground, it will only take around a half inch of rain to produce new flash flooding, or to exacerbate any ongoing flooding across the Blue Ridge areas.

* Flash flooding of streams and creeks may develop very quickly under these circumstances. Landslides will be quite possible, especially in mountainous terrain known to be prone to landslides, and even along some steep slopes where landslides have not occurred for many years. The saturated ground will also result in at least scattered tree falls. Main stem river flooding will continue along the French Broad River, and will likely develop along the Broad River as well. Elevated stream levels will continue, and minor flooding may develop along the Little Tennessee River and its tributaries.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. Make plans now to avoid travel during the peak of the heavy rainfall. Also have plans on where to flee to higher ground if flash flooding affects your location.

Rainfall of more than five inches in similar storms has been associated with an increased risk of landslides and rockslides. If you live on a mountainside or in a cove at the base of a mountain, especially near a stream, be ready to leave in advance of the storm or as quickly as possible should rising water, moving earth, or rocks threaten. Consider postponing travel on mountain roads during the period of heavy rainfall today through Wednesday.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Macon Media maintains a Severe Weather Preparedness Page at http://thunderpigblog.blogspot.com/p/breaking-news-hub.html for those who are interested.

As always, you can check to see what advisories, watches, and warnings are in effect for Macon County by visiting http://is.gd/MACONWARN



2:52 am this morning

TROPICAL OUTLOOK

The remnants of Subtropical Storm ALBERTO are making their way northward through Tennessee and Kentucky. The National Hurricane Center has ended coverage of the storm.

The latest Tropical Weather Discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center is posted below for your convenience.

IMAGE HERE

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave moving W off the coast of W Africa at 15 kt is along 20W S of 13N. The wave is well depicted on SSMI TPW imagery. Dry Saharan air is keeping the area free of convection.

A tropical wave is along 54W S of 12N moving W at 15 kt. The wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. Isolated moderate convection is south of 08N within 120 nm west of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues west of the tropical wave along 20W from 07N21W to 02N32W to the coast of South America near 02N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from the equator to 04N between 28W and 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Fair weather prevails across the the basin tonight, as isolated showers in the eastern Gulf have dissipated during the past 6-8 hours. Winds are from the SE at 10-20 kt, and seas are 2-4 ft.

A large upper level high is centered over southern Mexico near 21N103W, producing northerly upper level flow over the western Gulf. A sharp upper level trough is over the E Gulf with axis along 88W.

A surface trough is expected to form over the Yucatan peninsula each evening then drift over the southwest Gulf during the night through Sun. Elsewhere, surface ridging across the northern Gulf will maintain gentle to moderate SE winds through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated showers over western Cuba will persist during the next 6 to 12 hours. Localized flooding of low-lying areas may occur overnight, with conditions expected to continue to improve Thu.

Isolated moderate convection is in the NW Caribbean west of 81W. 5-15 kt southerly winds prevail across the western Caribbean, and 15-20 kt trade winds are over the central and eastern Caribbean E of 80W. An upper level trough remains over the E Caribbean with strong subsidence.

High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the S central Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere during the next several days. Fresh E to SE winds are likely in the Gulf of Honduras through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A discontinuous frontal boundary is analyzed N of 30N between 50W and 70W. Scattered moderate showers are north of 28N between 49W and 68W. A broad ridge across the east-central Atlantic is anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 31N29W, and extends westward along 28N-29N to a 1020 mb high pressure NE of the Bahamas near 28N70W.

The frontal boundary will sag southward overnight as a weak cold front, and extend from 32N50W to 28N56W to 28N65N by Thursday afternoon. A stationary front will extend from 28N65W to 32N68W. The cold front will shift eastward into the central Atlantic to extend from 32N41W to 27N50W to 26N60W on Friday, then stall and dissipate along 26N Friday night.

MACON CALENDAR

If you have an event you wish to be added to this calendar, please send the information, along with a flyer in pdf format or a high-quality photo, to editor@maconmedia.com. If you want text published, please include a paragraph with your photo, flyer or graphics. Please include date(s) and time(s).
There is no charge for civic, educational or nonprofit groups, except for groups or events that receive funding from the TDA, TDC, and EDC, where full rates apply.

FRANKLIN BIRD CLUB JUNE MEETING

Monday, June 11
Topic: “You Better Watch Out, Chimney Swifts Are Coming to Town”
Presented by: Tom Tribble
Location: Macon County Public Library at 7:00 pm

Watching migrating Chimney Swifts enter a roosting site by the thousands is a spectacle that everyone, not just birders, should witness. For over 100 years, Audubon has focused on making the world a better place for birds – Protect Birds and You Protect the Earth. The Chimney Swift is Audubon North Carolina’s 2016 Bird of the Year, recognized as a focal species, one that helps us understand the opportunities for meaningful conservation action. The Chimney Swift is a familiar sight in the sky over towns and cities, constantly twittering and changing direction as it hunts for insects on the wing, yet rarely recognized. Learn more about this fascinating bird, almost always around where people live but little known.

Tom Tribble is President of Elisha Mitchell Audubon Society, the Audubon chapter that covers Buncombe, Henderson, Madison and several adjacent counties. Tom has been an Audubon member and avid birder for more than 40 years. He worked for 30 years at the NC Center for Geographic Information & Analysis, the State’s Geographic Information System, retiring in 2013. He holds a Bachelor’s degree from Vanderbilt University and a Master’s degree from Duke University.

Uptown Gallery classes
(These are on-going classes – repeat weekly)

Free classes and open studio times are being offered at The Uptown Gallery in Franklin. Join others at a painting open studio session every Tuesday from 6:30 pm – 9:00 pm or on Thursday from 11:00 am – 3:00 pm.
Bring your own materials and join an on-going drawing course led by gallery artists on Fridays, from 11am – 2 pm. For information on days open, hours and additional art classes and workshops, contact the gallery on 30 East Main Street at (828) 349 – 4607.

National Alliance on Mental Illness
Appalachian South


Meets each Thursday at 7pm
The First Methodist Church Outreach Center
at the intersection of Harrison Ave. and West Main Street
(directly across from Lazy Hiker Brewery)

Come join our weekly support group for anyone suffering from mental illness and their family or friends. This includes Depression, Bipolar,8chizophrenia, PTSD, Substance Abuse, Etc.

Here you will find:
— others living with mental health challenges YOU ARE NOT ALONE
- learn coping skills and ?find hope in shared experience
- help learning how to break down stigma and guilt surrounding mental health
- how to live life with the expectation of a better a better future

Kay (706)970-9987 Denise (828)347-5000)

SYRINGE EXCHANGE PROGRAM

On January 1, 2017, the Syringe Exchange Program of Franklin began operating a comprehensive harm reduction program to address the opioid epidemic that is impacting western NC. Opioid overdose reversal kits including naloxone are available free of charge. If you have any questions about our services or if you know someone interested in volunteering, please contact Stephanie Almeida at 828-475-1920.



Sun and Moon

Sun

Begin civil twilight 5:51 a.m.
Sunrise 6:21 a.m.
Sun transit 1:31 p.m.
Sunset 8:42 p.m.
End civil twilight 9:11 p.m.


Moon

Moonrise 9:43 p.m. last night
Moon transit 2:53 a.m.
Moonset 8:02 a.m.
Moonrise 10:34 p.m.


Phase of the Moon on May 31, 2018: Waning Gibbous with 96% of the Moon's visible disk illuminated.
Closest Primary Moon Phase: Full Moon on May 29, 2018 at 10:19 a.m. (local daylight time)

Sky Guides for this week


Sky and Telescope Magazine 
Astronomy Magazine


There will be three solar and two lunar eclipses in 2018. [LINK]

Heavens Above has an Android App that will assist you in observing the sky and even has a satellite tracker that will let you know when the International Space Station and dozens of other satellites are overhead. [LINK]

Stellarium is also an app that will assist you in observing the sky. It is available in both Android [LINK] and iOS versions. [LINK]

CROWDFUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES


If you receive value from what Macon Media provides to the community, please consider becoming a supporter and contribute at least a dollar a month.

If you have a business or event you are interested in sponsorship opportunities or underwriting coverage, send an email to editor@MaconMedia.com for more information. Serious inquiries only. Macon Media rewards early sponsors/underwriters with lifetime guaranteed low rates while newer sponsors/underwriters pay higher rates based on the date they first support Macon Media.

Thank You to the people who have been sending in donations and those businesses who are underwriting coverage of news and events. You have kept Macon Media online.

Learn more about becoming a patron of Macon Media at https://www.patreon.com/MaconMedia

Published at 4:20 am on May 31, 2018

#WNCscan #MaconWx #MaconSafety


Data and information sources: Sources (except where otherwise credited): heavens-above.com, Ian Webster's Github, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, The National Weather Service, National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, National Hurricane Center, Penn State University Electronic Wall Map, The State Climate Office of North Carolina, Storm Prediction Center, U.S. Naval Observatory, and the Weather Prediction Center.

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