Daily Weather Briefing for Friday, August 11, 2017

LOCAL OUTLOOK

Abundant moisture will remain in place across the region today, with another cold front dropping southeast into the region and stalling over the weekend. A wave of low pressure will then ride east into the area early next week to continue the threat of locally heavy rainfall. Brief mid week drying will be possible.

Eclipse Weather

First off, it's hard enough to guess, I mean forecast, the weather more than 3 days out. Any forecast for August 21st given before August 17th should be taken with a large grain of salt and considered unreliable and for entertainment purposes only.

Second, it's not looking good. The average late afternoon August forecast usually goes a little like this, "Partly cloudy with highs in the 80s and a chance of afternoon thunderstorms." This year, trends and computer models are indicating that the forecast for August 21st will be something like, "Partly to mostly cloudy with highs in the 70s and a likely chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon."

Third, the tropics are getting busy, and that's not a good sign. If a storm makes landfall in the Gulf states east of the Florida peninsula on the 17th or later, and pushes north, we could be in the path to see rain on the day of the eclipse.

As of August 11th, I'm not ready to make a forecast for the time period from 2:35:36 pm to 2:37:57 pm on the afternoon of August 21st. I'll feel better about making one on the 18th.

The bottom line is, if you want the best chance for a completely cloud-free view of the eclipse from 1 pm to 4 pm, western North Carolina is probably not going to be the place to be. I would shoot for somewhere west of Missouri and east of the Oregon coast on eclipse day. We may get lucky and be able to see all or part of the totality. If I had an eclipse-chase team with tens of thousands of dollars invested in getting photos and videos, I would hedge my bets and be in Nebraska on August 21st. I don't have an eclipse team and, come clouds, sunshine, or a monsoon, I'll be in Franklin for eclipse.


WEATHER SPONSOR



Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing and public safety updates for the month. They have all your masonry products (block, mortars, tools), plus feature Belgrade Pavers and Sakrete Products. Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC.

Visit their Facebook page at: https://www.facebook.com/Adams.Oldcastle.Franklin.NC/

Their phone number is 828.524.8545, all are welcome, let them help you with your next project.


Weather Almanac for August 11th (1872-2016)

Record weather events for this date in Macon County

Highest Temperature 93°F in Franklin in 1983
Lowest Temperature 46°F in Franklin in 1989
Greatest Rainfall 3.10 inches in Highlands in 1919

Record weather events for August in Macon County

Highest Temperature 99°F in Franklin on Aug 9, 1980
Lowest Temperature 40°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station on Aug 29, 1968
Greatest Rainfall 9.68 inches in Highlands on Aug 13, 1940


THREE DAY OUTLOOK



TODAY

Mostly cloudy with highs near 80 in Franklin and Otto and in the 70s in Nantahala, Highlands and the higher elevations. Calm winds early, then from the south in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms, with higher chances between 6 am and 2 pm, but mainly before 4 pm. Rainfall amounts between a quarter and half an inch are possible in locations that see rain. Rain may be heavy at times.


TONIGHT

Mostly cloudy with patchy fog expected to develop after 10 pm. Lows in the 60s and calm winds. 60% chance of overnight showers with rainfall amounts between a tenth and a quarter of an inch expected in locations that do receive rain.




SATURDAY

Mostly cloudy with highs in the mid-80s in the Franklin and Otto areas and in the mid to upper 70s in Nantahala and Highlands areas and the higher elevations. Winds will be out of the northeast. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible. Not everyone will get rain, but some will.

SATURDAY NIGHT

Mostly cloudy with lows in the 60s and light winds out of the northeast. Chance of overnight showers.



SUNDAY

Mostly cloudy with highs in the 80s and a moderate chance of showers and thunderstorms.

SUNDAY NIGHT

Mostly cloudy with lows in the 60s. 40% chance of rain.

HAZARDS

Isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and cloud to ground lightning can occur with any thunderstorm.

As always, you can check to see what advisories, watches, and warnings are in effect for Macon County by visiting http://is.gd/MACONWARN



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

We are now in the time frame of where storms that develop in the Caribbean Sea or Atlantic Basin could impact our view of the solar eclipse on August 21st.


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of disturbed weather centered a couple of hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands is associated with a broad trough of low pressure. While upper-level winds are forecast to become more favorable for development by the weekend, dry air aloft could limit the system's thunderstorm activity, making the overall environment only marginally conducive. The trough is expected to move northwestward today, then northward over the weekend across the western Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A weak and elongated area of low pressure is centered just northeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida. This low is accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from southern Florida northeastward across the southwestern Atlantic. Significant development is not anticipated but this system could bring locally heavy rains to portions of the Florida peninsula as it moves northwestward and northward during the next day or two.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.


ECLIPSE EVENTS (events listed here are paid sponsorships)

RABUN COUNTY

Rabun County, Georgia has a county-wide “Outasight” eclipse viewing party planned for August 21st at the Rabun Gap Nacoochee School. More information may be found at
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/georgias-total-solar-eclipse-outasight-viewing-party-at-rgns-tickets-36172624293

Other events happening in and near Rabun County the weekend of the eclipse can be found on the Explore Rabun website at http://explorerabun.com/events-happening-total-solar-eclipse-rabun-county-georgia/

BRYSON CITY ECLIPSE WEEKEND

Bryson City invites you to a weekend of celebrating the eclipse. To find out more information, visit their page at https://www.greatsmokies.com/2017eclipse.html

Bryson City is recommended by TravelChannel.com as the spot in North Carolina to watch the eclipse.


MACON CALENDAR

If you have an event you wish to be added to this calendar, please send the information, along with a flyer in pdf format or a high-quality photo, to editor@maconmedia.com. If you want text published, please include a paragraph with your photo, flyer or graphic. Please include date(s) and time(s).
There is no charge for civic, educational or nonprofit groups, except for groups or events that receive funding from the TDA, TDC, and EDC, where full rates apply.


September 27th, WEDNESDAY

HOSPICE HOUSE FOUNDATION OF WNC

PEACEFUL JOURNEY
3rd annual charity dining event
hosted by RISTORANTE PAOLETTI at 440 Main Street in Highlands

For information, visit http://hhfwnc.org/peaceful-journey/


National Alliance on Mental Illness
Appalachian South

Meets each Thursday at 7pm
The First Methodist Church Outreach Center
at the intersection of Harrison Ave. and West Main Street
(directly across from Lazy Hiker Brewery)

Come join our weekly support group for anyone suffering from mental illness and their family or friends. This includes Depression, Bipolar,8chizophrenia, PTSD, Substance Abuse, Etc.

Here you will find:
— others living with mental health challenges YOU ARE NOT ALONE
- learn coping skills and ?find hope in shared experience
- help learning how to break down stigma and guilt surrounding mental health
- how to live life with the expectation of a better a better future

Kay (706)970-9987 Denise (828)347-5000)

SYRINGE EXCHANGE PROGRAM

On January 1, 2017, the Syringe Exchange Program of Franklin began operating a comprehensive harm reduction program to address the opioid epidemic that is impacting western NC. Opioid overdose reversal kits including naloxone are available free of charge. If you have any questions about our services or if you know someone interested in volunteering, please contact Stephanie Almeida at 828-475-1920.



Sun and Moon

Sun

Begin civil twilight 6:22 a.m.
Sunrise 6:50 a.m.
Sun transit 1:39 p.m.
Sunset 8:27 p.m.
End civil twilight 8:55 p.m.

Moon

Moonrise 9:48 p.m. last night
Moon transit 3:37 a.m.
Moonset 9:32 a.m.
Moonrise 10:23 p.m.

Phase of the Moon on August 9, 2017: Waning Gibbous with 91% of the Moon's visible disk illuminated.
The next New Moon will occur during a total solar eclipse at 2:36:40 pm on August 21, 2017.


Sky Guides for this week

Sky and Telescope Magazine 
Astronomy Magazine


Earth Sky has an article on the eclipses of 2017. [LINK]

Heavens Above has an Android App that will assist you in observing the sky and even has a satellite tracker that will let you know when the International Space Station and dozens of other satellites are overhead. [LINK]

Stellarium is also an app that will assist you in observing the sky. It is available in both Android [LINK] and iOS versions. [LINK]

CROWD FUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES

I will be posting an August Update in the next few days on our patreon campaign, which has reached 25 people who have pledged $294. Payout is on August 6th.

If you receive value from what Macon Media provides to the community, please consider becoming a supporter and contribute at least a dollar a month.

If you have a business or event you are interested in sponsorship opportunities or underwriting coverage, send an email to editor@MaconMedia.com for more information. Serious inquiries only. Macon Media rewards early sponsors/underwriters with lifetime guaranteed low rates while newer sponsors/underwriters pay higher rates based on the date they first support Macon Media.

Thank You to the people who have been sending in donations and those businesses who are underwriting coverage of news and events. You have kept Macon Media online. You have made it possible for Macon Media to begin purchasing state of the art equipment and begin work on building a real website with features not employed by any local news outlets.

You can find out more information on how to do that and some of what I plan to accomplish if I reach certain levels of funding at https://www.patreon.com/MaconMedia

Published at 5:00 am on August 11, 2017

#WNCscan #MaconWx #MaconSafety

Data and information sources: Sources (except where otherwise credited): heavens-above.com, Ian Webster's Github, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, The National Weather Service, National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, Penn State University Electronic Wall Map, The State Climate Office of North Carolina, Storm Prediction Center, U.S. Naval Observatory, and the Weather Prediction Center.