LOCAL OUTLOOK
Dry high pressure will dominate the weather pattern through Friday. There may be increased chances of rain late this weekend and early next week due to moisture being transported from the Gulf of Mexico to our region by Hurricane Nate. The storm could hit anywhere between Louisiana and the western peninsula of Florida and the forecast probably won't be firmed up until sometime Friday. Macon Media will post updates as they become available since we're potentially in the crosshairs on this one.
WEATHER SPONSOR
Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing & public safety updates for the month.
Oct 2 to Oct 13, specific surplus pavers will be offered at reduced pricing, pallet quantities only (limited).
Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC. Visit our Facebook page at:
All your masonry needs are available. Phone number is 828.524.8545, public is welcome, we’ll help with your with your next project.
Weather Almanac for October 5th (1872-2016)
Record weather events for this date in Macon County
Highest Temperature 91°F in Franklin in 1954
Lowest Temperature 25°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station in 1968
Greatest Rainfall 3.67inches at the Coweeta Experimental Station in 1964
Record weather events for October in Macon County
Highest Temperature 91°F in Franklin on Sept 4, 1954
Lowest Temperature 12°F in Highlands on Sept 30, 1910
Greatest Rainfall 9.91 inches in Highlands on Sept 29, 1964
Greatest One-Day Snowfall 1.0 inches in Highlands on Oct 20, 1913
THREE DAY OUTLOOK
TODAY
Areas of fog in the morning. Cloudy through mid-morning, then becoming mostly sunny with highs ranging from the 70s in the higher elevations to the lower 80s in the valleys. Winds will be light and variable.
TONIGHT
Clear with lows in the 40s and calm winds.
FRIDAY
Sunny with highs ranging from the 70s to the lower 80s. Calm winds in the morning, then from the southeast in the afternoon.
FRIDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy with lows in the 50s and light winds out of the southeast.
SATURDAY
Partly sunny with highs in the 70s. Increased chance of showers, mainly in the afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with lows in the upper 50s to mid-60s. 50% chance of showers.
HAZARDS
No hazardous weather is expected. A tropical system is forming in the Caribbean Sea and computer models show the storm becoming a hurricane and making landfall somewhere between Louisiana and the western coast of Florida sometime Sunday or Monday. Either way, this system will likely bring rain to the region in the time period from late Saturday to Tuesday. The forecast is very uncertain at this time, so please pay attention to your local forecasts this weekend.
Please turn on your headlights in the fog for your morning commute so other motorists can see you and increase your following distance to increase your reaction time.
Macon Media maintains a Severe Weather Preparedness Page at http://thunderpigblog.blogspot.com/p/breaking-news-hub.html for those who are interested.
As always, you can check to see what advisories, watches, and warnings are in effect for Macon County by visiting http://is.gd/MACONWARN
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
A new storm has formed in the Caribbean and current forecasts show this system is potentially headed toward the US Gulf Coast late this weekend or early next week as a hurricane and then bring our region rain after that.
Here is the Tuesday evening update posted by Levi Cowan of Tropical Tidbits.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017
For the North Atlantic...The Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Sixteen, located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
1. A sharp surface trough of low pressure interacting with an upper-level low is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across southern Florida, the northwestern and central Bahamas, central Cuba, and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Upper-level winds are forecast to be unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation while the system moves west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. However, locally heavy rainfall, some coastal flooding, and strong gusty winds, especially in squalls, are likely over portions of the Bahamas and Florida during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017
There have been some structural changes to the depression during the past few hours. Inner-core convection began developing just after the issuance of the previous advisory, and Colombian radar images from San Andres are now showing a well-defined convective band to the east and southeast of the center. Despite these changes, Dvorak satellite estimates remain T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.
The depression probably only has another 12 hours or so before its center moves inland over northeastern Nicaragua, but it is still expected to reach tropical storm strength before that happens. Once the center re-emerges over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea a little after 24 hours from now, high oceanic heat content and low shear should contribute to strengthening. Despite these favorable conditions, the amount of strengthening will be unclear until we know how well the inner core survives crossing over Nicaragua and Honduras. Strengthening is likely to continue through at least day 3 up until the time the cyclone reaches the central Gulf of Mexico. After day 3, there are some indications that higher shear and/or cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf of Mexico could lead to some weakening, but that scenario is by no means a definite one at this time. Needless to say, there continues to be greater-than-normal uncertainty in the intensity forecast. The updated NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted downward just a bit through day 3 to follow an overall shift in the guidance, although it should be noted that the official forecast still lies above the normally skillful HCCA model.
If the intensity forecast is complex, the track forecast is not much easier. For the first 48 hours, the models appear split on how the depression will interact with a disturbance currently located near the Straits of Florida. For example, the ECMWF model shows some interaction with the disturbance's low-level vorticity, which swings the depression more to the east on the right side of the guidance envelope. The GFS, on the other hand, shows no such interaction and has the cyclone on the western side of the guidance envelope. This setup has significant downstream effects after 48 hours because it keeps the ECMWF on an eastern route and the GFS on a western route as the cyclone heads toward the U.S. Gulf coast.
The new NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly westward, although it is still not as far west as the consensus aids or the HCCA model. Interestingly, although the ECMWF ensemble mean is close to the operational run on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, there is a high density of members to the left close to the consensus aids, which lends additional support for the westward adjustment.
A G-IV mission and Florida special soundings will begin tomorrow (Thursday) to better determine the synoptic steering flow around the cyclone.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras through early Friday. Heavy rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, and Panama through Friday night.
2. The system could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday or Saturday, bringing direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall, and a hurricane watch has been issued for a portion of this area.
3. The system is forecast to continue strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico and could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane this weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. However, it is too early to specify the timing, location, or magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this system for the next several days and heed any advice given by local officials.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 12.8N 82.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 13.5N 83.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 15.1N 83.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/1200Z 17.6N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 20.2N 86.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 25.5N 88.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 30.5N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/0000Z 36.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
MACON CALENDAR
If you have an event you wish to be added to this calendar, please send the information, along with a flyer in pdf format or a high-quality photo, to editor@maconmedia.com. If you want text published, please include a paragraph with your photo, flyer or graphics. Please include date(s) and time(s).
There is no charge for civic, educational or nonprofit groups, except for groups or events that receive funding from the TDA, TDC, and EDC, where full rates apply.
National Alliance on Mental Illness
Appalachian South
Meets each Thursday at 7pm
The First Methodist Church Outreach Center
at the intersection of Harrison Ave. and West Main Street
(directly across from Lazy Hiker Brewery)
Come join our weekly support group for anyone suffering from mental illness and their family or friends. This includes Depression, Bipolar,8chizophrenia, PTSD, Substance Abuse, Etc.
Here you will find:
— others living with mental health challenges YOU ARE NOT ALONE
- learn coping skills and ?find hope in shared experience
- help learning how to break down stigma and guilt surrounding mental health
- how to live life with the expectation of a better a better future
Kay (706)970-9987 Denise (828)347-5000)
SYRINGE EXCHANGE PROGRAM
On January 1, 2017, the Syringe Exchange Program of Franklin began operating a comprehensive harm reduction program to address the opioid epidemic that is impacting western NC. Opioid overdose reversal kits including naloxone are available free of charge. If you have any questions about our services or if you know someone interested in volunteering, please contact Stephanie Almeida at 828-475-1920.
Sun and Moon
Sun
Begin civil twilight 7:06 a.m.
Sunrise 7:32 a.m.
Sun transit 1:22 p.m.
Sunset 7:11 p.m.
End civil twilight 7:37 p.m.
Moon
Moonrise 6:55 p.m. on preceding day
Moon transit 1:00 a.m.
Moonset 7:12 a.m.
Moonrise 7:32 p.m.
Phase of the Moon on October 5, 2017: Full Moon at 2:40 p.m. (local daylight time)
Sky Guides for this week
I took some epic photos of the solar eclipse, but have not yet had time to process them. I will be producing material from the photos and video for sale as a fundraiser for Macon Media. --Bobby
Sky and Telescope Magazine
Astronomy Magazine
Earth Sky has an article on the eclipses of 2017. [LINK]
Heavens Above has an Android App that will assist you in observing the sky and even has a satellite tracker that will let you know when the International Space Station and dozens of other satellites are overhead. [LINK]
Stellarium is also an app that will assist you in observing the sky. It is available in both Android [LINK] and iOS versions. [LINK]
CROWD FUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES
If you receive value from what Macon Media provides to the community, please consider becoming a supporter and contribute at least a dollar a month.
If you have a business or event you are interested in sponsorship opportunities or underwriting coverage, send an email to editor@MaconMedia.com for more information. Serious inquiries only. Macon Media rewards early sponsors/underwriters with lifetime guaranteed low rates while newer sponsors/underwriters pay higher rates based on the date they first support Macon Media.
Thank You to the people who have been sending in donations and those businesses who are underwriting coverage of news and events. You have kept Macon Media online. You have made it possible for Macon Media to begin purchasing state of the art equipment and begin work on building a real website with features not employed by any local news outlets.
You can find out more information on how to do that and some of what I plan to accomplish if I reach certain levels of funding at
https://www.patreon.com/MaconMedia
Posted at 3:42 am on October 5, 2017
#WNCscan #MaconWx #MaconSafety
Data and information sources: Sources (except where otherwise credited): heavens-above.com, Ian Webster's Github, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, The National Weather Service, National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, Penn State University Electronic Wall Map, The State Climate Office of North Carolina, Storm Prediction Center, U.S. Naval Observatory, and the Weather Prediction Center.
Posts
0 comments :
Post a Comment