Daily Weather Briefing for Friday, October 6, 2017

LOCAL OUTLOOK

Dry high pressure will dominate the weather pattern through today. Hurricane Nate is expected to bring copious amounts of rain to the region from Sunday to Monday.

WEATHER SPONSOR

Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing & public safety updates for the month. 

Oct 2 to Oct 13, specific surplus pavers will be offered at reduced pricing, pallet quantities only (limited). 

Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC. Visit our Facebook page at:

https://www.facebook.com/Adams.Oldcastle.Franklin.NC/

All your masonry needs are available. Phone number is 828.524.8545, public is welcome, we’ll help with your with your next project.   

Weather Almanac for October 6th (1872-2016)

Record weather events for this date in Macon County

Highest Temperature 89°F in Franklin in 1951
Lowest Temperature 26°F in Highlands in 1980
Greatest Rainfall 2.54 inches in Highlands in 1934


Record weather events for October in Macon County

Highest Temperature 91°F in Franklin on Sept 4, 1954
Lowest Temperature 12°F in Highlands on Sept 30, 1910
Greatest Rainfall 9.91 inches in Highlands on Sept 29, 1964
Greatest One-Day Snowfall 1.0 inches in Highlands on Oct 20, 1913


THREE DAY OUTLOOK



TODAY

Sunny with highs ranging from the mid-60s in the higher elevations to the mid-70s in the valleys. Winds out of the southeast.

TONIGHT

Partly cloudy with lows in the 50s and winds 5 to 10 mph out of the southeast.



SATURDAY

Mostly cloudy with highs in the 60s and 70s. Winds 5 to 10 mph out of the southeast. 40% chance of rain, mainly after noon.

SATURDAY NIGHT

Cloudy with lows in the 50s and 60s. Winds 5 to 10 mph out of the southeast. 70% chance of rain.



SUNDAY

Cloudy and rainy with highs near the 70s.

SUNDAY NIGHT

Rainy with lows in the 60s. Chance of thunderstorms.

HAZARDS

No hazardous weather is expected today. Heavy rain may be possible on Sunday and Monday as the remnants of Hurricane Nate may pass through the region.

The National Weather Service has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for potentially heavy rain our region is currently expected to receive from the remnants of Hurricane Nate on Sunday and Monday. It is posted below for your convenience.

..SUNDAY...Heavy rain possible. The remnants of a tropical cyclone may affect the region during the latter half of the holiday weekend. There exists the possibility of excessive rainfall and gusty wind.

..MONDAY...Heavy rain possible.

Macon Media maintains a Severe Weather Preparedness Page at http://thunderpigblog.blogspot.com/p/breaking-news-hub.html for those who are interested.


As always, you can check to see what advisories, watches, and warnings are in effect for Macon County by visiting http://is.gd/MACONWARN



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

A new storm has formed in the Caribbean and current forecasts show this system is potentially headed toward the US Gulf Coast late this weekend or early next week as a hurricane and then bring our region rain after that. A more detailed discussion from the National Hurricane Center is posted below the Tropical Weather Outlook.

Here is the Thursday evening update posted by Levi Cowan of Tropical Tidbits.



Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017

For the North Atlantic...The Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nate, located over the Gulf of Honduras.

1. An area of low pressure is forecast to form in the next day or two along the southern extent of a frontal boundary, about 900 miles southwest of the Azores. This low could subsequently acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics while it remains nearly stationary over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.


TROPICAL STORM NATE



Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

Nate's center has been moving northwestward across eastern Honduras, but it is just about to reach the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Despite moving over land for the past 12-15 hours, the cyclone appears to have a relatively intact and well-defined inner core. Deep convection has actually been increasing over the center, and recent 85-GHz microwave data showed at least some form of a convective ring. Given these signs, the maximum winds are being held at 35 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating Nate during the next several hours to get a better handle on the storm's intensity and structure.

Nate has been moving northwestward while crossing Nicaragua and Honduras, and the initial motion estimate is 325/10 kt. The storm is currently embedded within a broad Central American gyre, and it should swing north-northwestward on the east side of this gyre during the next 36 hours. After 36 hours, Nate should turn northward and then northeastward along the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric high centered off the southeastern U.S. coastline. Compared to yesterday at this time, the track models have come into much better agreement, and all the reliable models take Nate's center across the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula in 24 hours and then across the U.S. central Gulf coast between 48 and 60 hours. Because of this tight clustering, there are no notable cross-track changes in the NHC forecast. Speed-wise, however, the updated official forecast is a bit faster than the previous one and has caught up to the various consensus aids.

Due to low shear and very high oceanic heat content in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, Nate should at least steadily strengthen once it moves offshore, especially since it appears to have a well-defined inner core. Rapid intensification is still not out of the question, and Nate could be near hurricane intensity by the time it reaches the Yucatan coast in about 24 hours. Land interaction with the Yucatan peninsula could cause a brief hiatus in the strengthening trend, but conditions should be conducive for additional intensification while Nate is over the Gulf of Mexico.
Overall, the intensity models have not changed much on this cycle, and the NHC forecast still calls for a 48-hour intensity of 70 kt, which is at the upper end of the guidance between HWRF and HCCA.
As mentioned before, Nate could strengthen further in the time between the 48-hour position and when it crosses the U.S. Gulf coast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is the main threat from Nate in portions of Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, and Belize through Friday night.

2. Nate could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday, bringing direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for a portion of this area, and life-threatening flash flooding is also possible.

3. Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast this weekend as a hurricane, and the threat of direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is increasing from Louisiana through the western Florida Panhandle. Hurricane and tropical storm watches, as well as a storm surge watch, have been issued for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast, and residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Nate, heeding any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 15.8N 84.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/1200Z 17.8N 85.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 07/0000Z 20.8N 87.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/1200Z 24.3N 89.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 08/0000Z 27.5N 90.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 33.7N 87.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/0000Z 40.0N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0000Z 43.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW


MACON CALENDAR

If you have an event you wish to be added to this calendar, please send the information, along with a flyer in pdf format or a high-quality photo, to editor@maconmedia.com. If you want text published, please include a paragraph with your photo, flyer or graphics. Please include date(s) and time(s).
There is no charge for civic, educational or nonprofit groups, except for groups or events that receive funding from the TDA, TDC, and EDC, where full rates apply.





National Alliance on Mental Illness
Appalachian South

Meets each Thursday at 7pm
The First Methodist Church Outreach Center
at the intersection of Harrison Ave. and West Main Street
(directly across from Lazy Hiker Brewery)

Come join our weekly support group for anyone suffering from mental illness and their family or friends. This includes Depression, Bipolar,8chizophrenia, PTSD, Substance Abuse, Etc.

Here you will find:
— others living with mental health challenges YOU ARE NOT ALONE
- learn coping skills and ?find hope in shared experience
- help learning how to break down stigma and guilt surrounding mental health
- how to live life with the expectation of a better a better future

Kay (706)970-9987 Denise (828)347-5000)

SYRINGE EXCHANGE PROGRAM

On January 1, 2017, the Syringe Exchange Program of Franklin began operating a comprehensive harm reduction program to address the opioid epidemic that is impacting western NC. Opioid overdose reversal kits including naloxone are available free of charge. If you have any questions about our services or if you know someone interested in volunteering, please contact Stephanie Almeida at 828-475-1920.



Sun and Moon

Sun

Begin civil twilight 7:07 a.m.
Sunrise 7:32 a.m.
Sun transit 1:22 p.m.
Sunset 7:10 p.m.
End civil twilight 7:35 p.m.


Moon

Moonrise 7:32 p.m. last night
Moon transit 1:51 a.m.
Moonset 8:17 a.m.
Moonrise 8:10 p.m.

Phase of the Moon on October 6, 2017: Waning Gibbous with 99% of the Moon's visible disk illuminated.
Closest Primary Moon Phase: Full Moon on October 5, 2017, at 2:40 p.m. (local daylight time)



Sky Guides for this week

I took some epic photos of the solar eclipse, but have not yet had time to process them. I will be producing material from the photos and video for sale as a fundraiser for Macon Media. --Bobby

Sky and Telescope Magazine 
Astronomy Magazine


Earth Sky has an article on the eclipses of 2017. [LINK]

Heavens Above has an Android App that will assist you in observing the sky and even has a satellite tracker that will let you know when the International Space Station and dozens of other satellites are overhead. [LINK]

Stellarium is also an app that will assist you in observing the sky. It is available in both Android [LINK] and iOS versions. [LINK]

CROWD FUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES

If you receive value from what Macon Media provides to the community, please consider becoming a supporter and contribute at least a dollar a month.

If you have a business or event you are interested in sponsorship opportunities or underwriting coverage, send an email to editor@MaconMedia.com for more information. Serious inquiries only. Macon Media rewards early sponsors/underwriters with lifetime guaranteed low rates while newer sponsors/underwriters pay higher rates based on the date they first support Macon Media.

Thank You to the people who have been sending in donations and those businesses who are underwriting coverage of news and events. You have kept Macon Media online. You have made it possible for Macon Media to begin purchasing state of the art equipment and begin work on building a real website with features not employed by any local news outlets.

You can find out more information on how to do that and some of what I plan to accomplish if I reach certain levels of funding at
https://www.patreon.com/MaconMedia



Posted at 4:05 am on October 6, 2017

#WNCscan #MaconWx #MaconSafety

Data and information sources: Sources (except where otherwise credited): heavens-above.com, Ian Webster's Github, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, The National Weather Service, National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, Penn State University Electronic Wall Map, The State Climate Office of North Carolina, Storm Prediction Center, U.S. Naval Observatory, and the Weather Prediction Center.