LOCAL OUTLOOK
The remnants of Hurricane Nate will move northward out of the Gulf of Mexico, traveling northeast up the western slopes of the Appalachians late this weekend. Deep moisture and heavy rainfall will spread across the region on Sunday and Monday. Scattered showers and storms may linger through next week.
WEATHER SPONSOR
Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing & public safety updates for the month.
Oct 2 to Oct 13, specific surplus pavers will be offered at reduced pricing, pallet quantities only (limited).
Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC. Visit our Facebook page at:
All your masonry needs are available. Phone number is 828.524.8545, public is welcome, we’ll help with your with your next project.
Weather Almanac for October 7th (1872-2016)
Record weather events for this date in Macon County
Highest Temperature 86°F in Highland in 1939
Lowest Temperature 25°F in Highlands in 1935
Greatest Rainfall 2.59 inches in Highlands in 1959
Record weather events for October in Macon County
Highest Temperature 91°F in Franklin on Sept 4, 1954
Lowest Temperature 12°F in Highlands on Sept 30, 1910
Greatest Rainfall 9.91 inches in Highlands on Sept 29, 1964
Greatest One-Day Snowfall 1.0 inches in Highlands on Oct 20, 1913
THREE DAY OUTLOOK
TODAY
Patchy dense fog in the morning. Mostly cloudy with rain chances increasing as the day progresses. Highs ranging from the 60s in the higher elevations to the lower 70s in the lower elevations. Winds 5 to 10 mph out of the southeast. 50% chance of rain during the afternoon hours.
TONIGHT
Cloudy with lows in the 60s and winds 5 to 10 mph out of the southeast. Near 100% chance of rain, with heavy rain expected after midnight.
SUNDAY
Cloudy with highs ranging from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Winds 10 to 15 mph out of the southeast, gusting to 30 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT
Cloudy and very windy with lows in the 60s. Heavy rainfall. Winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts in the 50 mph range. Widespread power outages are likely.
COLUMBUS DAY
Cloudy and breezy with highs ranging from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. 80% chance of rain, with the heavy rainfall ending before noon.
MONDAY NIGHT
Cloudy with lows ranging from the mid-50s to the lower 60s. 70% chance of rain.
HAZARDS
No hazardous weather is expected today. Heavy rain may be possible on Sunday and Monday as the remnants of Hurricane Nate may pass through the region.
Widespread power outages are likely, so be prepared to be without electrical service for a few days.
The National Weather Service has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for potentially heavy rain our region is currently expected to receive from the remnants of Hurricane Nate on Sunday and Monday. It is posted below for your convenience.
..SUNDAY...Heavy rain possible. The remnants of Tropical System Nate may affect the region during the latter half of the holiday weekend. There exists the possibility of excessive rainfall and gusty winds, with the strongest winds over the mountains.
..MONDAY...Heavy rain possible. Strong and gusty winds will continue as well.
Macon Media maintains a Severe Weather Preparedness Page at http://thunderpigblog.blogspot.com/p/breaking-news-hub.html for those who are interested.
As always, you can check to see what advisories, watches, and warnings are in effect for Macon County by visiting http://is.gd/MACONWARN
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
A new storm has formed in the Caribbean and current forecasts show this system is potentially headed toward the US Gulf Coast late this weekend or early next week as a hurricane and then bring our region rain after that. A more detailed discussion from the National Hurricane Center is posted below the Tropical Weather Outlook.
Here is the Friday evening update posted by Levi Cowan of Tropical Tidbits.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017
For the North Atlantic...The Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly upgraded Hurricane Nate, located over the southern Gulf of Mexico.
1. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located about 650 miles southwest of the Azores. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the development of a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next couple of days while the low drifts toward the west or southwest. Thereafter the atmosphere is expected to become hostile for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
TROPICAL STORM NATE
Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017
Recent data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flights indicate that Nate continues to strengthen and is near hurricane strength. The NOAA plane measured a maximum 700-mb flight-level wind of 75 kt, but the SFMR instruments on both planes have only measured surface winds as high as 55 kt. It seems that the highest winds haven't quite mixed down to the surface, but it's likely that the system is at least producing surface winds of 60 kt, which will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The NOAA flight also reported that an eyewall is forming to the east of Nate's center.
Nate has been accelerating toward the north-northwest between a large cyclonic gyre centered over southern Mexico and a mid-level high located over the southwestern Atlantic, and the initial motion estimate is 340/19 kt. This north-northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours, with Nate turning northward and slowing down only slightly around the time it is forecast to cross the northern Gulf coast between 24-36 hours. After landfall, the cyclone is expected to get swept up ahead of a large mid-latitude trough, and accelerate northeastward over the eastern United States. At least up until landfall, the track guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is relatively unchanged from the previous one. After landfall, the new forecast is just a tad slower in order to give some credence to the slower solution provided by the ECMWF model.
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear conducive for Nate to continue strengthening up until the time it makes landfall along the northern Gulf coast. Nate is likely to become a hurricane overnight, and the new NHC forecast has been raised to a peak intensity of 75 kt at 24 hours based on guidance from the SHIPS and LGEM models. The intensity consensus and HCCA are lower than that due to the HWRF solution, which shows absolutely no strengthening before landfall. Disregarding that solution, it seems prudent to be above the consensus, close to the upper end of the guidance envelope. Rapid intensification still cannot be ruled out since the indices are showing a 50/50 chance of a 25-kt increase over the next 24 hours. If Nate becomes a hurricane soon, then additional increases in the official intensity forecast may be necessary in subsequent advisories.
Aircraft data indicate that Nate is an asymmetric storm, with most of the winds located on the eastern side of the circulation, and this structure is likely to continue until landfall due to the cyclone's fast forward speed. Therefore, locations to the east of where Nate makes landfall are expected to receive significantly stronger winds than locations to the west of the center. Regardless, there is still too much uncertainty to know exactly where landfall will occur, and all locations within the hurricane warning area should be preparing for hurricane-force winds.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Life-threatening storm surge flooding is likely along portions of the northern Gulf Coast, and a storm surge warning is now in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida. Residents in these areas should heed any evacuation instructions given by local officials.
2. A hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the northern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in these areas.
3. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the the potential for flash flooding in these areas.
4. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals of 6 inches across the lower Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians Sunday into Monday, which will also increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 22.3N 86.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 25.1N 87.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 28.5N 88.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 31.4N 88.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/0000Z 34.7N 85.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/0000Z 40.5N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/0000Z 44.5N 63.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/0000Z...ABSORBED
MACON CALENDAR
If you have an event you wish to be added to this calendar, please send the information, along with a flyer in pdf format or a high-quality photo, to editor@maconmedia.com. If you want text published, please include a paragraph with your photo, flyer or graphics. Please include date(s) and time(s).
There is no charge for civic, educational or nonprofit groups, except for groups or events that receive funding from the TDA, TDC, and EDC, where full rates apply.
National Alliance on Mental Illness
Appalachian South
Meets each Thursday at 7pm
The First Methodist Church Outreach Center
at the intersection of Harrison Ave. and West Main Street
(directly across from Lazy Hiker Brewery)
Come join our weekly support group for anyone suffering from mental illness and their family or friends. This includes Depression, Bipolar,8chizophrenia, PTSD, Substance Abuse, Etc.
Here you will find:
— others living with mental health challenges YOU ARE NOT ALONE
- learn coping skills and ?find hope in shared experience
- help learning how to break down stigma and guilt surrounding mental health
- how to live life with the expectation of a better a better future
Kay (706)970-9987 Denise (828)347-5000)
SYRINGE EXCHANGE PROGRAM
On January 1, 2017, the Syringe Exchange Program of Franklin began operating a comprehensive harm reduction program to address the opioid epidemic that is impacting western NC. Opioid overdose reversal kits including naloxone are available free of charge. If you have any questions about our services or if you know someone interested in volunteering, please contact Stephanie Almeida at 828-475-1920.
Sun and Moon
Sun
Begin civil twilight 7:07 a.m.
Sunrise 7:32 a.m.
Sun transit 1:22 p.m.
Sunset 7:10 p.m.
End civil twilight 7:35 p.m.
Moon
Moonrise 7:32 p.m. on preceding day
Moon transit 1:51 a.m.
Moonset 8:17 a.m.
Moonrise 8:10 p.m.
Phase of the Moon on October 6, 2017: Waning Gibbous with 99% of the Moon's visible disk illuminated.
Closest Primary Moon Phase: Full Moon on October 5, 2017 at 2:40 p.m. (local daylight time)
Sky Guides for this week
I took some epic photos of the solar eclipse, but have not yet had time to process them. I will be producing material from the photos and video for sale as a fundraiser for Macon Media. --Bobby
Sky and Telescope Magazine
Astronomy Magazine
Earth Sky has an article on the eclipses of 2017. [LINK]
Heavens Above has an Android App that will assist you in observing the sky and even has a satellite tracker that will let you know when the International Space Station and dozens of other satellites are overhead. [LINK]
Stellarium is also an app that will assist you in observing the sky. It is available in both Android [LINK] and iOS versions. [LINK]
CROWD FUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES
If you receive value from what Macon Media provides to the community, please consider becoming a supporter and contribute at least a dollar a month.
If you have a business or event you are interested in sponsorship opportunities or underwriting coverage, send an email to editor@MaconMedia.com for more information. Serious inquiries only. Macon Media rewards early sponsors/underwriters with lifetime guaranteed low rates while newer sponsors/underwriters pay higher rates based on the date they first support Macon Media.
Thank You to the people who have been sending in donations and those businesses who are underwriting coverage of news and events. You have kept Macon Media online. You have made it possible for Macon Media to begin purchasing state of the art equipment and begin work on building a real website with features not employed by any local news outlets.
You can find out more information on how to do that and some of what I plan to accomplish if I reach certain levels of funding at
https://www.patreon.com/MaconMedia
Posted at 4:00 am on October 7, 2017
#WNCscan #MaconWx #MaconSafety
Data and information sources: Sources (except where otherwise credited): heavens-above.com, Ian Webster's Github, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, The National Weather Service, National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, Penn State University Electronic Wall Map, The State Climate Office of North Carolina, Storm Prediction Center, U.S. Naval Observatory, and the Weather Prediction Center.
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