Daily Weather Briefing for Labor Day, September 4, 2017

LOCAL OUTLOOK

Warmer and drier high pressure will remain over the region into Tuesday. Another cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday evening and bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area on Wednesday. Drying high pressure will spread back over the region in the wake of the front on Thursday and linger into the weekend.


WEATHER SPONSOR



Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing and public safety updates for the month. They have all your masonry products (block, mortars, tools), plus feature Belgrade Pavers and Sakrete Products. Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC.

Visit their Facebook page at: https://www.facebook.com/Adams.Oldcastle.Franklin.NC/

Their phone number is 828.524.8545, all are welcome, let them help you with your next project.


Weather Almanac for September 4th (1872-2016)

Record weather events for this date in Macon County

Highest Temperature 98°F in Franklin in 1975
Lowest Temperature 37°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station in 1952
Greatest Rainfall 2.51 inches in Highlands in 1983


Record weather events for September in Macon County

Highest Temperature 98°F in Franklin on Sept 4, 1975
Lowest Temperature 27°F in Franklin on Sept 30, 1967
Greatest Rainfall 11.87 inches in Highlands on Sept 29, 1967


THREE DAY OUTLOOK



TODAY

Areas of fog in the morning. Cloudy with skies clearing before noon. Highs near 80 in the Franklin and main valley of the county and 5 to 10 degrees cooler in Highlands and the higher elevations. Calm winds early in the morning, then from the south and southwest in the afternoon.

TONIGHT

Mostly clear with lows ranging from around 50 to the upper 50s and variable light winds.



TUESDAY

Mostly sunny with highs ranging from the lower 70s in the higher elevations to near 80 in the Franklin area. Winds will be calm in the early morning, then rise to 5 to 10 mph out of the southwest and west by mid-morning. Rain chances will rise from 10% at 6 am to 50% by 6 pm. Thunderstorms are possible, mainly in the afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT

Mostly cloudy with lows ranging from the mid-50s to near 60, depending on altitude. Winds mostly out of the west calming before midnight. Showers and thunderstorms are likely, with rainfall amounts between a quarter and a half an inch possible.



WEDNESDAY

Cloudy with highs ranging from the 60s in the higher elevations to near 70 in the Franklin area. Calm winds in the morning, then rotating to come out of the northwest in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are likely, ending in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT

Mostly cloudy with lows near 50. Rain chances should end by 8 pm or so.

HAZARDS

Hazardous weather is not expected today.

As always, you can check to see what advisories, watches, and warnings are in effect for Macon County by visiting http://is.gd/MACONWARN



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...The Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Irma, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression will likely form later this week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next few days while it drifts northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.



Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2017

The cloud pattern of Irma has not changed significantly in structure today. The eye continues to become apparent and then hide under the convective canopy, and this has been the observed pattern for the past 24 hours or so. Dvorak estimates go up and down with the presence of the eye, but an average of these numbers supports an initial intensity of 95 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane will help with the intensity estimate on Sunday.

I hesitate to speculate too much about the environment that Irma is embedded within. All of the standard ingredients necessary for strengthening are forecast to be at least marginally favorable, but none are expected to be hostile for intensification. The NHC forecast, which in fact is similar to the previous one, continues to be a blend of the statistical models and the explosive strengthening shown by the regional hurricane and global models.

The subtropical ridge building to the north of Irma has been steering the hurricane toward the west or 260 degrees at 12 kt. The ridge is forecast to amplify even more, and this flow pattern will force the hurricane to dive west-southwestward for a couple of days. Irma should then begin to gain latitude once it reaches the southwestern edge of the ridge in about 3 days. The confidence in the track forecast is high for the next 72 hours since all of the reliable guidance is basically on top of each other. After 3 days, when the hurricane is forecast to be approaching the northern Leeward Islands, the guidance envelope spreads out and becomes bounded by the southernmost tracks of the HWRF, HCCA and the ECMWF models, and by the northernmost GFS and UK models. The confidence beyond 3 days is then much lower. Tonight's NHC forecast was adjusted a just little to the south of the previous one due to another small shift of the guidance envelope. The forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCX.

While Irma is currently a small hurricane, the size guidance suggests it should grow in size during the next 72 h. This will affect how soon watches may be issued for portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it moves closer to the Lesser Antilles early next week, producing rough surf and rip currents. Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to specify where and when those hazards could occur. Residents in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and listen to any advice given by local officials.

2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will have on the Bahamas and the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 18.3N 46.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 17.8N 48.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 17.2N 50.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 16.7N 52.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 16.5N 54.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 17.7N 59.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 19.9N 64.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 22.5N 69.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
MACON CALENDAR

If you have an event you wish to be added to this calendar, please send the information, along with a flyer in pdf format or a high-quality photo, to editor@maconmedia.com. If you want text published, please include a paragraph with your photo, flyer or graphic. Please include date(s) and time(s).
There is no charge for civic, educational or nonprofit groups, except for groups or events that receive funding from the TDA, TDC, and EDC, where full rates apply.


Friday, September 8th at 1:00 pm

BUTTERFLY WALK AT HIGHLANDS BIOLOGICAL STATION

James T. Costa, Ph.D. will lead a free nature walk with an emphasis on butterflies at 1 pm Friday Sept. 8 at the Highlands Biological Station, 265 N. 6th St. Highlands. He is Director of the research station and a biology professor at Western Carolina University. For those who want to carpool from Franklin, we will meet at Bi-Lo's parking lot at 12:15 pm. Please email Renee at Rubinlive@gmail.com if you are interested so you may be informed of any changes due to weather. 
In addition, Dr. Costa will speak at 6:30 pm Sept. 8 at City Lights in Sylva about his new book, Darwin's Backyard: How Small Experiments Led to a Big Theory.

The Future Farmers of America are selling Raffle Tickets
More information is posted below:

Support Franklin FFA (Future Farmers of America)
!!! RAFFLE TICKETS !!!!

$5.00 a ticket or 5 for $20.00

Winner announced & does not be present at The Macon County Fair 2017
September 13-16, 2017 at The Wayne Proffitt Agriculture Center - Macon County Fairgrounds, 1436 Georgia Rd, Franklin NC 28734
Raffle is for Adventure Package, valued at $300.00...

Items are:
1. Cargo Carrier ( donated by Ultimate Truck Accessories) - can be used atop an SUV/Van or rear hitch
2. Foldable Camp Chairs in Camo with Table
3. Burn Fire Log (Swedish Flame Torch)
4. Lighter
5. Heavy Duty Flashlight
6. "Over the flame" cooking basket
7. Roasting Sticks
8. Bug Spray

We thank Appalachian Ace Hardware for their support.

*All proceeds go to Franklin FFA & FHS Ag Dept*
Contact Gregory Charles Spala via FB or 813-838-7693 text or call
Or Lori Spala via FB or 813-503-2160


September 27th, WEDNESDAY

HOSPICE HOUSE FOUNDATION OF WNC

PEACEFUL JOURNEY
3rd annual charity dining event
hosted by RISTORANTE PAOLETTI at 440 Main Street in Highlands

For information, visit http://hhfwnc.org/peaceful-journey/


National Alliance on Mental Illness
Appalachian South

Meets each Thursday at 7pm
The First Methodist Church Outreach Center
at the intersection of Harrison Ave. and West Main Street
(directly across from Lazy Hiker Brewery)

Come join our weekly support group for anyone suffering from mental illness and their family or friends. This includes Depression, Bipolar,8chizophrenia, PTSD, Substance Abuse, Etc.

Here you will find:
— others living with mental health challenges YOU ARE NOT ALONE
- learn coping skills and ?find hope in shared experience
- help learning how to break down stigma and guilt surrounding mental health
- how to live life with the expectation of a better a better future

Kay (706)970-9987 Denise (828)347-5000)

SYRINGE EXCHANGE PROGRAM

On January 1, 2017, the Syringe Exchange Program of Franklin began operating a comprehensive harm reduction program to address the opioid epidemic that is impacting western NC. Opioid overdose reversal kits including naloxone are available free of charge. If you have any questions about our services or if you know someone interested in volunteering, please contact Stephanie Almeida at 828-475-1920.



Sun and Moon

Sun

Begin civil twilight 6:43 a.m.
Sunrise 7:08 a.m.
Sun transit 1:32 p.m.
Sunset 7:56 p.m.
End civil twilight 8:21 p.m.


Moon

Moonrise 6:30 p.m. last night
Moon transit 11:54 p.m. last night
Moonset 5:22 a.m.
Moonrise 7:10 p.m.


Phase of the Moon on September 4, 2017: Waxing Gibbous with 97% of the Moon's visible disk illuminated.
Closest Primary Moon Phase: Full Moon on September 6, 2017 at 3:03 a.m. (local daylight time)





Sky Guides for this week

Sky and Telescope Magazine 
Astronomy Magazine


Earth Sky has an article on the eclipses of 2017. [LINK]

Heavens Above has an Android App that will assist you in observing the sky and even has a satellite tracker that will let you know when the International Space Station and dozens of other satellites are overhead. [LINK]

Stellarium is also an app that will assist you in observing the sky. It is available in both Android [LINK] and iOS versions. [LINK]

CROWD FUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES

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If you have a business or event you are interested in sponsorship opportunities or underwriting coverage, send an email to editor@MaconMedia.com for more information. Serious inquiries only. Macon Media rewards early sponsors/underwriters with lifetime guaranteed low rates while newer sponsors/underwriters pay higher rates based on the date they first support Macon Media.

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You can find out more information on how to do that and some of what I plan to accomplish if I reach certain levels of funding at https://www.patreon.com/MaconMedia

Published at 5:00 am on September 4, 2017

#WNCscan #MaconWx #MaconSafety

Data and information sources: Sources (except where otherwise credited): heavens-above.com, Ian Webster's Github, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, The National Weather Service, National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, Penn State University Electronic Wall Map, The State Climate Office of North Carolina, Storm Prediction Center, U.S. Naval Observatory, and the Weather Prediction Center.