Daily Weather Briefing for Sunday, September 10, 2017

**7:46 am** The National Weather Service has issued a High Wind Watch for the region, including Macon County that will be in effect from Monday morning to Monday night. read more about it at http://thunderpigblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/high-wind-watch-issued-by-national.html

Hurricane IRMA

Summary of Expected Impacts for Macon County

Our impacts will be mostly wind-related with sustained winds overnight on Monday expected to be in the 15 to 35 mph range with gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range by midnight Monday. Ridges and mountain tops will be seeing higher wind speeds and some of those locations could see occasional hurricane force wind gusts. If you have an emergency situation during the storm, please call 911. If you have a non-emergency situation, call 828-369-9116. This number should not be called for informational requests. A copy of a press release issued late Friday afternoon by Macon County Emergency Management is on the Macon Media blog at http://thunderpigblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/macon-county-emergency-management_8.html

POWER OUTAGES

Power outages are likely to be widespread. Here are resources to report outages and safety tips.

Duke Energy

Call 800.769.3766 or in Spanish 866.4.Apagón (866.427.2466).

If you see a fallen power line or safety hazard, call Duke Energy at 800.Power.On (800.769.3766) or in Spanish 866.4.Apagón (866.427.2466) or contact your local emergency services immediately. Do not touch a power line or anything in contact with it and keep others away until help arrives.

Haywood EMC

To report or inquire about power outages, call 1-800-951-6088

FLOODING

Rainfall totals will be very dependent on the path IRMA takes and the speed the storm travels. We could see anywhere from 2 to 6 inches of rain from the time it starts until late Tuesday night. Some low-lying areas may flood and there is the potential for landslides in areas where protective vegetation was burned away last fall in the wildfires.

LOCAL OUTLOOK

Dry high pressure will stay over the Northeast States as Irma crosses Florida on its way to Georgia on Monday. Wind and rain will increase across our region as the tropical system approaches from the south. The remnants of Irma may move west and stall on Wednesday, then shift back east over the mountains aided by an incoming cold front.



WEATHER SPONSOR



Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing and public safety updates for the month. They have all your masonry products (block, mortars, tools), plus feature Belgrade Pavers and Sakrete Products. Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC.

Visit their Facebook page at: https://www.facebook.com/Adams.Oldcastle.Franklin.NC/

Their phone number is 828.524.8545, all are welcome, let them help you with your next project.


Weather Almanac for September 10th (1872-2016)

Record weather events for this date in Macon County

Highest Temperature 92°F in Highlands in 1925
Lowest Temperature 36°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station in 1956
Greatest Rainfall 2.50 inches in Franklin in 1876


Record weather events for September in Macon County

Highest Temperature 98°F in Franklin on Sept 4, 1975
Lowest Temperature 27°F in Franklin on Sept 30, 1967
Greatest Rainfall 11.87 inches in Highlands on Sept 29, 1967


THREE DAY OUTLOOK



TODAY (the calm before the wind and rain)

Widespread fog (dense in most places) in the morning. Temperatures will start out near 50 in the Franklin area and will be 5 to 8 degrees cooler in the Highlands and higher elevations. Skies will be mostly cloudy early in the morning and partly sunny around noon, then a gradual increase in cloudiness through the end of the day as cirrus from Hurricane IRMA begin to overrun our region. Highs will be around 70 in the Franklin area and 5 to 10 degrees cooler in Highlands and the higher elevations. Winds will be out of the northeast early, then gradually shifting to come out of the southeast in the late afternoon hours.

TONIGHT (clouds and winds gradually increase)

Increasing clouds and temperatures dropping from near 70 at 6 pm to around 50 in the Franklin area with Highlands and the higher elevations ranging 5 to 8 degrees cooler. Winds are expected to be from the northeast and will ever so slightly become constant from the northeast. Rain chances will begin to increase, but may not begin before daybreak. This forecast is highly dependant on the path of IRMA.



MONDAY (wind and rain arrive)

The temperature will begin in the mid-50s and will top out in the mid-60s and slightly lower in Highlands and the higher elevations. The rain will arrive by noon or shortly thereafter. Winds will begin the day around 5 mph out of the northeast and gradually increase to around 30 mph be 6 pm with wind gusts arriving in the early afternoon around 15 to 25 mph and gradually increasing to the 30 to 50 mph range by 6 pm. Those on the ridges and mountain tops may see winds 20 or more mph beyond that. Power outages may be widespread. Rainfall amounts will vary but should be in the range of half an inch to an inch or so. Rain bands will make totals highly variable from location to location.

MONDAY NIGHT (this is IRMA's Night, not fit for man nor beast to be outdoors)

Rainy and windy. Temperatures will be around 60 at 6 pm and will fall to the mid to upper 50s overnight with slightly lower temperatures at higher elevations. Winds will be out of the northeast and will gradually shift to the east as IRMA passes by to our south. The wind will probably peak around midnight with a sustained speed of around 25 mph (plus or minus 10 mph) and wind gusts will peak around 40 to 50 mph around midnight. The ridges and mountain tops will see higher wind speeds and wind gusts in those locations could exceed hurricane force at times. Rainfall amounts will be variable from location to location depending on thunderstorms and rainband placement. Totals from 6 pm to 6 am should be in the neighborhood of an inch or two.

After midnight, winds should begin to decrease, dropping to around 10 to 15 mph out of the southeast with gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range. There will likely be widespread power outages. The forecast could vary according to IRMA's path.



TUESDAY (recovery and restoration)

Rain chances should decrease by the mid afternoon hours. Highs should be in the mid-60s and winds will be gradually dying down with occasional gusts in the 20 mph range. Wind direction will be variable. Rainfall amounts should be in the half inch range with different locations seeing variable amounts.

TUESDAY NIGHT

Mostly cloudy with lows in the mid-50s with Highlands and the higher elevation being 5 to 10 degrees cooler. 40% chance of rain, mainly before 2 am. The remnants of IRMA will still be to our west and will probably return swept to the east by a cold front on Wednesday or Thursday.

HAZARDS

No hazardous weather is expected today.

You should be completing your preparations for IRMA over the weekend. Plan to have on hand at least 6 gallons of water (3 for drinking and three for hygiene) per person and three days supply of food that you do not need electricity to prepare.

The National Weather Service has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for Monday and Tuesday in anticipation of potential impacts by the remnants of Hurricane IRMA. Please plan accordingly and make sure all the members of your family are aware of the contents of your family emergency communications plan.

Macon Media maintains a Severe Weather Preparedness Page at http://thunderpigblog.blogspot.com/p/breaking-news-hub.html for those who are interested.

NWS HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK

..MONDAY...Tropical Storm hazards possible. Hurricane Irma is expected to weaken to a tropical storm as it moves north across Georgia early next week. Excessive rainfall, strong wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes will be possible across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia as Irma approaches Monday and Monday night.

..TUESDAY...Tropical Storm hazards possible.

As always, you can check to see what advisories, watches, and warnings are in effect for Macon County by visiting http://is.gd/MACONWARN



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

For the North Atlantic...The Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Irma, located over the Florida Straits, and on Hurricane Jose, located just north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands continue to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while the system moves generally northwestward over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.




Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

Irma's nearly 24-hour traversal of the north coast of Cuba appears to have affected the hurricane's structure and intensity. An earlier NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and a more recent Air Force reconnaissance flight both measured maximum flight-level winds near 105 kt and surface winds near 95 kt. The planes have reported a double eyewall structure, which has also been observed in WSR-88D Doppler radar data from Miami and Key West. Irma's intensity has been conservatively lowered to 105 kt, and I'd rather wait to lower the winds further until we've seen the full data set from the Air Force mission.

Irma has stuttered near the north coast of Cuba for the past few hours, which may be a harbinger of the north-northwestward turn that we've been waiting for. In any event, Irma appears to be moving very slowly toward the northwest, or 305/5 kt, very gradually shifting away from the north coast of Cuba. With the hurricane located near a break in the subtropical ridge, it should turn north-northwestward soon and accelerate near or along the west coast of Florida during the next 36-48 hours. Because of Irma's hesitation to move northwestward, the new track guidance has shifted ever so slightly westward, and the new NHC track is just a little left of the previous one. Although it is likely that the eye will move near or over the Lower Keys Sunday morning, the hurricane's angle of approach to the west coast of Florida makes it very difficult to pinpoint exactly where Irma will cross the Florida Gulf coast.

If an eyewall replacement occurs within the next 6-12 hours, Irma has an opportunity to restrengthen a bit while it moves across the Straits of Florida. After that time, however, southwesterly shear is expected to increase to 25-30 kt in about 24 hours and then continue increasing through 48 hours. This shear, in addition to Irma's core interacting with Florida, is likely to cause a weakening trend after 24 hours. The new intensity guidance calls for an adjustment from the previous forecast, although it conservatively lies near the upper bound of the reliable models. Irma is still expected to approach the Florida Keys and Florida west coast as a major hurricane, and combined with its large size, will produce significant storm surge flooding in those areas.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected bring life-threatening wind and storm surge to the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane tonight through Sunday. Preparations in the Florida Keys and southwest Florida should be complete since tropical-storm-force winds are already affecting portions of the coast.

2. There is an imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding in portions of central and southern Florida, including the Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest coast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground level is expected. This is a life-threatening situation, and everyone in these areas should immediately follow any evacuation instructions from local officials.

3. Irma will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Florida regardless of the exact track of the center. Wind hazards from Irma are also expected to spread northward through much of Georgia and portions of South Carolina and Alabama.

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding. Total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts of between 20 and 25 inches, are expected over the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula, and southeast Georgia from Saturday through Monday. Significant river flooding is possible in these areas. Early next week Irma will also bring periods of heavy rain to much of the southeast United States where an average of 2 to 6 inches is forecast, with isolated higher amounts, from North and South Carolina to Tennessee and eastern Alabama. This includes some mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. Residents throughout the southeast states should remain aware of the flood threat and stay tuned to forecasts and warnings.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 23.5N 81.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 24.7N 81.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 26.8N 82.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 29.5N 83.4W 80 KT 90 MPH...ON THE COAST
48H 12/0000Z 32.2N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 13/0000Z 35.3N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 14/0000Z 37.0N 88.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED



MACON CALENDAR

If you have an event you wish to be added to this calendar, please send the information, along with a flyer in pdf format or a high-quality photo, to editor@maconmedia.com. If you want text published, please include a paragraph with your photo, flyer or graphic. Please include date(s) and time(s).
There is no charge for civic, educational or nonprofit groups, except for groups or events that receive funding from the TDA, TDC, and EDC, where full rates apply.


Friday, September 8th at 1:00 pm

BUTTERFLY WALK AT HIGHLANDS BIOLOGICAL STATION

James T. Costa, Ph.D. will lead a free nature walk with an emphasis on butterflies at 1 pm Friday Sept. 8 at the Highlands Biological Station, 265 N. 6th St. Highlands. He is Director of the research station and a biology professor at Western Carolina University. For those who want to carpool from Franklin, we will meet at Bi-Lo's parking lot at 12:15 pm. Please email Renee at Rubinlive@gmail.com if you are interested so you may be informed of any changes due to weather.
In addition, Dr. Costa will speak at 6:30 pm Sept. 8 at City Lights in Sylva about his new book, Darwin's Backyard: How Small Experiments Led to a Big Theory.

The Future Farmers of America are selling Raffle Tickets
More information is posted below:

Support Franklin FFA (Future Farmers of America)
!!! RAFFLE TICKETS !!!!

$5.00 a ticket or 5 for $20.00

Winner announced & does not be present at The Macon County Fair 2017
September 13-16, 2017 at The Wayne Proffitt Agriculture Center - Macon County Fairgrounds, 1436 Georgia Rd, Franklin NC 28734
Raffle is for Adventure Package, valued at $300.00...

Items are:
1. Cargo Carrier ( donated by Ultimate Truck Accessories) - can be used atop an SUV/Van or rear hitch
2. Foldable Camp Chairs in Camo with Table
3. Burn Fire Log (Swedish Flame Torch)
4. Lighter
5. Heavy Duty Flashlight
6. "Over the flame" cooking basket
7. Roasting Sticks
8. Bug Spray

We thank Appalachian Ace Hardware for their support.

*All proceeds go to Franklin FFA & FHS Ag Dept*
Contact Gregory Charles Spala via FB or 813-838-7693 text or call
Or Lori Spala via FB or 813-503-2160


September 27th, WEDNESDAY

HOSPICE HOUSE FOUNDATION OF WNC

PEACEFUL JOURNEY
3rd annual charity dining event
hosted by RISTORANTE PAOLETTI at 440 Main Street in Highlands

For information, visit http://hhfwnc.org/peaceful-journey/


National Alliance on Mental Illness
Appalachian South

Meets each Thursday at 7pm
The First Methodist Church Outreach Center
at the intersection of Harrison Ave. and West Main Street
(directly across from Lazy Hiker Brewery)

Come join our weekly support group for anyone suffering from mental illness and their family or friends. This includes Depression, Bipolar,8chizophrenia, PTSD, Substance Abuse, Etc.

Here you will find:
— others living with mental health challenges YOU ARE NOT ALONE
- learn coping skills and ?find hope in shared experience
- help learning how to break down stigma and guilt surrounding mental health
- how to live life with the expectation of a better a better future

Kay (706)970-9987 Denise (828)347-5000)

SYRINGE EXCHANGE PROGRAM

On January 1, 2017, the Syringe Exchange Program of Franklin began operating a comprehensive harm reduction program to address the opioid epidemic that is impacting western NC. Opioid overdose reversal kits including naloxone are available free of charge. If you have any questions about our services or if you know someone interested in volunteering, please contact Stephanie Almeida at 828-475-1920.



Sun and Moon

Sun

Begin civil twilight 6:47 a.m.
Sunrise 7:13 a.m.
Sun transit 1:30 p.m.
Sunset 7:47 p.m.
End civil twilight 8:13 p.m.


Moon

Moonrise 10:12 p.m. last night
Moon transit 4:51 a.m.
Moonset 11:36 a.m.
Moonrise 10:53 p.m.


Phase of the Moon on September 10, 2017: Waning Gibbous with 78% of the Moon's visible disk illuminated.
Closest Primary Moon Phase: Last Quarter on September 13, 2017 at 2:25 a.m. (local daylight time)





Sky Guides for this week

I took some epic photos of the solar eclipse, but have not yet had time to process them. I will be producing material from the photos and video for sale as a fundraiser for Macon Media. --Bobby

Sky and Telescope Magazine 
Astronomy Magazine


Earth Sky has an article on the eclipses of 2017. [LINK]

Heavens Above has an Android App that will assist you in observing the sky and even has a satellite tracker that will let you know when the International Space Station and dozens of other satellites are overhead. [LINK]

Stellarium is also an app that will assist you in observing the sky. It is available in both Android [LINK] and iOS versions. [LINK]

CROWD FUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES

If you receive value from what Macon Media provides to the community, please consider becoming a supporter and contribute at least a dollar a month.

If you have a business or event you are interested in sponsorship opportunities or underwriting coverage, send an email to editor@MaconMedia.com for more information. Serious inquiries only. Macon Media rewards early sponsors/underwriters with lifetime guaranteed low rates while newer sponsors/underwriters pay higher rates based on the date they first support Macon Media.

Thank You to the people who have been sending in donations and those businesses who are underwriting coverage of news and events. You have kept Macon Media online. You have made it possible for Macon Media to begin purchasing state of the art equipment and begin work on building a real website with features not employed by any local news outlets.

You can find out more information on how to do that and some of what I plan to accomplish if I reach certain levels of funding at https://www.patreon.com/MaconMedia

Published at 4:50 am on September 10, 2017

#WNCscan #MaconWx #MaconSafety

Data and information sources: Sources (except where otherwise credited): heavens-above.com, Ian Webster's Github, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, The National Weather Service, National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, Penn State University Electronic Wall Map, The State Climate Office of North Carolina, Storm Prediction Center, U.S. Naval Observatory, and the Weather Prediction Center.