Hurricane IRMA Information and Links
"I am prepared for the worst, but hope for the best."
- Benjamin Disraeli
As of 3 am (when this briefing was prepared) Hurricane IRMA is still off the coast of Cuba and has yet to make the projected turn toward Florida. The latest computer models continue to shift the path of this storm to our west and lessen potential impacts for Macon County. There is still some uncertainty regarding the eventual path of this storm and future model runs could shift the storm back east. We will have a better idea on the true path of the storm Sunday afternoon. If you still have not made preparations for potential flooding and extended power outages, please do so. With these storms, it is always best to be prepared for the worst scenario. You all should have a basic emergency kit and be prepared for at least three days without electricity and running water anyway. Macon Media will begin posting more detailed forecasts for IRMA beginning Sunday afternoon.
LINKS
Hurricane City Live Feed
hurricanecity.com/live
National Hurricane Center
nhc.noaa.gov
NOAA National Radar Loop
radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
Macon Media Severe Weather Preparedness Page
http://thunderpigblog.blogspot.com/p/breaking-news-hub.html
Macon County Emergency Management Issues Update on IRMA
http://thunderpigblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/macon-county-emergency-management_8.html
NC Governor Declares State of Emergency and Suspends Certain Motor Vehicle Regulations in Preparation for Hurricane Irma
http://thunderpigblog.blogspot.com/2017/09/nc-governor-declares-state-of-emergency.html
LOCAL OUTLOOK
Dry high pressure will linger across the region through Saturday. On Sunday, Irma is expected to approach from the south with rain chances increases and gusty conditions persisting into Monday. The center of Irma is expected to move north northwest across the region as a weakening tropical storm Monday night through Tuesday. The moist remnants may move west and stall on Wednesday... then shift back east over the mountains aided by an incoming cold front.
WEATHER SPONSOR
Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing and public safety updates for the month. They have all your masonry products (block, mortars, tools), plus feature Belgrade Pavers and Sakrete Products. Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC.
Visit their Facebook page at: https://www.facebook.com/Adams.Oldcastle.Franklin.NC/
Their phone number is 828.524.8545, all are welcome, let them help you with your next project.
Weather Almanac for September 9th (1872-2016)
Record weather events for this date in Macon County
Highest Temperature 97°F in Highlands in 1925
Lowest Temperature 38°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station in 1958
Greatest Rainfall 4.37 inches in Highlands in 1967
Record weather events for September in Macon County
Highest Temperature 98°F in Franklin on Sept 4, 1975
Lowest Temperature 27°F in Franklin on Sept 30, 1967
Greatest Rainfall 11.87 inches in Highlands on Sept 29, 1967
THREE DAY OUTLOOK
TODAY
Areas of fog in the morning. Temperatures will start out near 50 in the Franklin area and will be 5 to 8 degrees cooler in the Highlands and higher elevations. Skies will be partly cloudy in the morning and partly sunny around noon, then a gradual increase in cloudiness through the end of the day. Highs will be in the mid-70s in the Franklin area and 5 to 10 degrees cooler in Highlands and the higher elevations. Winds will be out of the north early, then gradually shifting to come out of the northeast in the afternoon.
TONIGHT
Mostly clear with some clouds and temperatures dropping from near 70 at 6 pm to around 50 in the Franklin area with Highlands and the higher elevations ranging 5 to 8 degrees cooler. Winds are expected to be calm or very light from the northeast.
SUNDAY
Mostly sunny with temperature starting off near 50 and rising to near 70 in the afternoon, then dropping back to the mid-60s by 6 pm in the Franklin area. Highlands and the higher elevations will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler. Winds will be from the northeast, gradually ramping up to near 5 to 8 mph. Clouds are also expected to gradually increase as the clouds associated with the outflow from Hurricane IRMA may begin to overrun the area.
SUNDAY NIGHT
The evening will begin with partly cloudy skies with it becoming mostly or completely clouded over by 6 am as clouds associated with IRMA cover the county. Temperatures will drop from the mid-60s to the lowers 50s in the Franklin area. Temperatures in Highlands and the higher elevations will be 3 to 5 degrees cooler. Winds will be out of the northeast and will begin to become more sustained instead of just the occasional breeze. Winds will be in the 5 to 10 mph range. Rain chances will increase to 10% by 6 am.
MONDAY
Cloudy with increasing chances of rain, mainly after noon. The exact time rain will begin is still uncertain. Highs will be in the mid-60s will minor variations at higher elevations. Winds will be out of the northeast in the 10 to 15 mph range, increasing as the day goes on, with gusts on the 20 to 25 mph range at lower elevations. Winds may be higher at the higher elevations.
MONDAY NIGHT
Cloudy with lows in the mid-50s with minor variations in the higher elevations. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some of these storms could produce heavy rainfall overnight. Chance of rain 100%.
HAZARDS
No hazardous weather is expected today.
You should be completing your preparations for IRMA over the weekend. Plan to have on hand at least 6 gallons of water (3 for drinking and three for hygiene) per person and three days supply of food that you do not need electricity to prepare.
The National Weather Service has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for Monday and Tuesday in anticipation of potential impacts by the remnants of Hurricane IRMA. Please plan accordingly and make sure all the members of your family are aware of the contents of your family emergency communications plan.
Macon Media maintains a Severe Weather Preparedness Page at http://thunderpigblog.blogspot.com/p/breaking-news-hub.html for those who are interested.
NWS HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK
..MONDAY...Tropical Storm hazards possible. Hurricane Irma is expected to weaken to a tropical storm as it moves north across Georgia early next week. Excessive rainfall and damaging wind gusts will be possible across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia as Irma approaches Monday and Monday night.
..TUESDAY...Tropical Storm hazards possible.
As always, you can check to see what advisories, watches, and warnings are in effect for Macon County by visiting http://is.gd/MACONWARN
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017
For the North Atlantic...The Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Irma, located near the coast of central Cuba, on Hurricane Jose, located a couple of hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands, and on Hurricane Katia, located inland over eastern Mexico.
1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter flight has found that Irma has re-intensified to category 5 strength. The plane measured a maximum flight-level wind of 154 kt and SFMR winds of 140-145 kt in the northwestern eyewall, so the initial intensity is raised to 140 kt. The hurricane is producing very deep convection in all quadrants around the eye, which the Air Force flight measured to be 35 n mi wide.
Apparently the ridge to the north of Irma has been stronger than expected, and the initial motion remains westward, or 280/11 kt.
The track guidance continues to insist on Irma turning west-northwestward soon, moving along the Cuban Keys adjacent to the north coast of Cuba during the next 24 hours. After that time, Irma is expected to turn sharply north-northwestward and accelerate after 48 hours, moving parallel to the west coast of Florida and then into Georgia. Mainly because Irma's eye has not deviated from its westward motion, the new NHC forecast track has again shifted slightly westward. Because of the hurricane's angle of approach to the west coast of Florida, it is extremely difficult to pinpoint exactly where the center might move onshore.
If the eye continues to move over the Cuban Keys and does not move inland over the main island of Cuba, then Irma would likely not lose much intensity during the next day or so. As we've stated many times, fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 36 hours due to possible and unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles. After 36 hours, there are some indications that vertical shear may increase over the hurricane, and a little more weakening is anticipated at that time. Because of the concerns in the track forecast noted above, Irma would be able to maintain a strong intensity for a longer period of time if the center stays off the west Florida coast. Regardless, Irma is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida through 48 hours.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to portions of the Bahamas and the north coast of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through Saturday.
2. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the center.
3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in portions of central and southern Florida, including the Florida Keys, during the next 36 hours, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of significant storm surge flooding along the southwest coast of Florida has increased, and 8 to 12 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in this area. This is a life-threatening situation. Everyone in these areas should take all actions to protect life and property from rising water and follow evacuation instructions from local officials.
4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected over the Florida Keys and much of the Florida peninsula through Tuesday night. Irma will likely bring periods of heavy rain to much of the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, South Carolina, and western North Carolina early next week, including some mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. All areas seeing heavy rainfall from Irma will experience a risk of flooding and flash flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 22.1N 77.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 22.6N 79.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 23.3N 80.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 24.5N 81.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 26.5N 81.9W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/0000Z 31.6N 83.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 13/0000Z 35.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 14/0000Z 35.5N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
MACON CALENDAR
If you have an event you wish to be added to this calendar, please send the information, along with a flyer in pdf format or a high-quality photo, to editor@maconmedia.com. If you want text published, please include a paragraph with your photo, flyer or graphic. Please include date(s) and time(s).
There is no charge for civic, educational or nonprofit groups, except for groups or events that receive funding from the TDA, TDC, and EDC, where full rates apply.
Friday, September 8th at 1:00 pm
BUTTERFLY WALK AT HIGHLANDS BIOLOGICAL STATION
James T. Costa, Ph.D. will lead a free nature walk with an emphasis on butterflies at 1 pm Friday Sept. 8 at the Highlands Biological Station, 265 N. 6th St. Highlands. He is Director of the research station and a biology professor at Western Carolina University. For those who want to carpool from Franklin, we will meet at Bi-Lo's parking lot at 12:15 pm. Please email Renee at Rubinlive@gmail.com if you are interested so you may be informed of any changes due to weather.
In addition, Dr. Costa will speak at 6:30 pm Sept. 8 at City Lights in Sylva about his new book, Darwin's Backyard: How Small Experiments Led to a Big Theory.
The Future Farmers of America are selling Raffle Tickets
More information is posted below:
Support Franklin FFA (Future Farmers of America)
!!! RAFFLE TICKETS !!!!
$5.00 a ticket or 5 for $20.00
Winner announced & does not be present at The Macon County Fair 2017
September 13-16, 2017 at The Wayne Proffitt Agriculture Center - Macon County Fairgrounds, 1436 Georgia Rd, Franklin NC 28734
Raffle is for Adventure Package, valued at $300.00...
Items are:
1. Cargo Carrier ( donated by Ultimate Truck Accessories) - can be used atop an SUV/Van or rear hitch
2. Foldable Camp Chairs in Camo with Table
3. Burn Fire Log (Swedish Flame Torch)
4. Lighter
5. Heavy Duty Flashlight
6. "Over the flame" cooking basket
7. Roasting Sticks
8. Bug Spray
We thank Appalachian Ace Hardware for their support.
*All proceeds go to Franklin FFA & FHS Ag Dept*
Contact Gregory Charles Spala via FB or 813-838-7693 text or call
Or Lori Spala via FB or 813-503-2160
September 27th, WEDNESDAY
HOSPICE HOUSE FOUNDATION OF WNC
PEACEFUL JOURNEY
3rd annual charity dining event
hosted by RISTORANTE PAOLETTI at 440 Main Street in Highlands
For information, visit http://hhfwnc.org/peaceful-journey/
National Alliance on Mental Illness
Appalachian South
Meets each Thursday at 7pm
The First Methodist Church Outreach Center
at the intersection of Harrison Ave. and West Main Street
(directly across from Lazy Hiker Brewery)
Come join our weekly support group for anyone suffering from mental illness and their family or friends. This includes Depression, Bipolar,8chizophrenia, PTSD, Substance Abuse, Etc.
Here you will find:
— others living with mental health challenges YOU ARE NOT ALONE
- learn coping skills and ?find hope in shared experience
- help learning how to break down stigma and guilt surrounding mental health
- how to live life with the expectation of a better a better future
Kay (706)970-9987 Denise (828)347-5000)
SYRINGE EXCHANGE PROGRAM
On January 1, 2017, the Syringe Exchange Program of Franklin began operating a comprehensive harm reduction program to address the opioid epidemic that is impacting western NC. Opioid overdose reversal kits including naloxone are available free of charge. If you have any questions about our services or if you know someone interested in volunteering, please contact Stephanie Almeida at 828-475-1920.
Sun and Moon
Sun
Begin civil twilight 6:47 a.m.
Sunrise 7:12 a.m.
Sun transit 1:31 p.m.
Sunset 7:49 p.m.
End civil twilight 8:14 p.m.
Moon
Moonrise 9:35 p.m. last night
Moon transit 3:59 a.m.
Moonset 10:31 a.m.
Moonrise 10:12 p.m.
Phase of the Moon on September 9, 2017: Waning Gibbous with 87% of the Moon's visible disk illuminated.
Sky Guides for this week
I took some epic photos of the solar eclipse, but have not yet had time to process them. I will be producing material from the photos and video for sale as a fundraiser for Macon Media. --Bobby
Sky and Telescope Magazine
Astronomy Magazine
Earth Sky has an article on the eclipses of 2017. [LINK]
Heavens Above has an Android App that will assist you in observing the sky and even has a satellite tracker that will let you know when the International Space Station and dozens of other satellites are overhead. [LINK]
Stellarium is also an app that will assist you in observing the sky. It is available in both Android [LINK] and iOS versions. [LINK]
CROWD FUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES
If you receive value from what Macon Media provides to the community, please consider becoming a supporter and contribute at least a dollar a month.
If you have a business or event you are interested in sponsorship opportunities or underwriting coverage, send an email to editor@MaconMedia.com for more information. Serious inquiries only. Macon Media rewards early sponsors/underwriters with lifetime guaranteed low rates while newer sponsors/underwriters pay higher rates based on the date they first support Macon Media.
Thank You to the people who have been sending in donations and those businesses who are underwriting coverage of news and events. You have kept Macon Media online. You have made it possible for Macon Media to begin purchasing state of the art equipment and begin work on building a real website with features not employed by any local news outlets.
You can find out more information on how to do that and some of what I plan to accomplish if I reach certain levels of funding at https://www.patreon.com/MaconMedia
Published at 5:10 am on September 9, 2017
#WNCscan #MaconWx #MaconSafety
Data and information sources: Sources (except where otherwise credited): heavens-above.com, Ian Webster's Github, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, The National Weather Service, National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, Penn State University Electronic Wall Map, The State Climate Office of North Carolina, Storm Prediction Center, U.S. Naval Observatory, and the Weather Prediction Center.
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