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Thursday, September 16, 2010

4 Things to Know About Delaware
Updated with Poll Showing Coons Leading 53-42

Here is a thoughtful piece I've excerpted about Christine O'Donnell's victory in the GOP primary in Delaware I found in Real Clear Politics...

An awful lot of ink has been spilled on Christine O'Donnell's monumental upset of moderate Republican Mike Castle in the Delaware primary on Tuesday. Far too much, in fact. So let's cut to the chase. There are really only four things you need to know:

1. Yes, that is almost certainly the end of GOP prospects for this Senate seat.

2. This doesn't hurt the GOP's chances of the taking the Senate all that much.

3. Still, the GOP will regret not having Castle's vote someday.

4. No, this doesn't mark the end of the GOP.

There are two problems here. The first, and perhaps most obvious, is that the Republicans are currently positioned to win the most House seats that they've won in an election since 1946. Republican candidates for the House are running away with races in evenly-matched swing districts.

They are competitive in House districts in Maine that are typically 3-8 points more Democratic than the country, and in a Central Valley district that is five points more Democratic than the country. And if Republicans are competitive in CA-20, what does the polling look like in the 116 districts Democrats occupy that are as or more conservative than that district?

In other words, pundits aren't seeing the forest for the trees here. The same forces that ended Mike Castle's career are the same forces that are propelling the GOP toward an historic midterm election win, and the results will be especially strong in the chamber where actual control matters the most.

Second, there's nothing new here. The GOP base has been at war with its establishment since the 1960s. Charles Sandman's primary of New Jersey Governor William Cahill in 1973, Jeffrey Bell's primary of New Jersey Senator Clifford Case in 1978, Kenneth McMillan's primary of Thomas Railsback in 1982, Oliver North's primary of Jim Miller in 1994, the trifecta of Allard, Brownback, and Salvi in 1996 . . . all of these were precursors of Tuesday's upset.

The Democrats do it too, by the way. The anger that drove Democratic successes in 2006 also endangered their chances when establishment candidates lost primaries in California 11 and New Hampshire 1, and might have cost them their chance at California 4 and a few other seats.

Yet both parties endured, and even prospered. And that's the important thing to remember about Tuesday. When historians look back on the 2010 elections, O'Donnell's win over Castle will just be a footnote.
Source: Real Clear Politics (please read the entire article by Sean Trende)


If O'Donnell is able to win in Delaware, it would indicate a truly seismic shift in the American political scene.  

**4.41pm** Rasmussen has moved Delaware US Senate Race from "Leans Democrat" to "Solid Democrat"

Democrat Chris Coons holds a double-digit lead over Republican hopeful Christine O’Donnell in the first Rasmussen Reports post-primary survey of the U.S. Senate race in Delaware.
Coons earns 53% of the vote to O’Donnell’s 42%, with leaners included. One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.
The Delaware race is now viewed as Solid Democrat in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings
This marks a remarkable turnaround in a race that at the beginning of the month was rated Solid Republican and was on track to be a GOP pickup. At that time, Congressman Mike Castle led Coons as he had been leading all year. O’Donnell trailed Coons at that time 47% to 36%.

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