Hurricane Florence is dominating the weather news today and will continue to do so into early next week. The bottom line is that is it still too early to tell with any degree of confidence what the impact of Florence will be for us in Macon County. There are far too many variables at play. Click on any of the images in this article to see at a larger size.
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Video and photos from the International Space Station as it orbited over Hurricane Florence earlier today.
We'll start off with Macon Media's favorite tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan of Tropical Tidbits. [blog]
Below is a press conference held by Governor Roy Cooper who spoke about preparations by the State of North Carolina. He has declared a State of Emergency to assist in preparations for the storm and ease rescue and recovery operations should they be needed.
While it is most probable to be a devastating storm for the east coast of North Carolina and some areas on the coastal plain, the impacts for us here in Macon County are less certain. The most likely impact for us is some amount of rain. The amount of rain will be determined by the path of the remnants of Florence after it comes ashore.
The worst-case scenario for us is that it stalls near us and we receive copious amounts of rain for several days.
All the forecasts and information below is subject to change as more data and further computer models runs take place.
According to the latest forecast by the National Hurricane Center, our area is expected to receive up to two inches of rain from the remnants of the storm.
The official National Hurricane track (the 9-10-2018 5 pm track is pictured above) shows the storm passing through well to the east of Macon County. As seen in the GIF below, the track has shifted slightly to the east between the 11 am and 5 pm updates today.
Meteorologist Brad Panovich has a graphic that shows the shift of the storm track over the last ten forecast periods. It is in the embedded tweet below. Press the play button to activate the GIF loop.
Last ten forecasts for #Florence pic.twitter.com/eGQ8NMw5kM— Brad Panovich (@wxbrad) September 10, 2018
The forecaster discussion from the National Hurricane Center is posted below so you can see what their lead forecasters are thinking about this storm and the potential impact it may have.
NHC 5 PM FORECAST DISCUSSION
Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018
Unfortunately, the models were right. Florence has rapidly intensified into an extremely dangerous hurricane, with 30-second GOES-16 visible imagery showing well-defined eyewall mesovortices rotating inside of the eye. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found peak SFMR winds of about 120 kt, with flight-level winds and dropsonde measurements also supporting that value for the initial wind speed estimate. Notably, the aircraft data also show the size of the hurricane-force winds has doubled in the past 12 hours.
None of the guidance suggest that Florence has peaked in intensity, and this is supported by a continuation of a low-shear environment, and even warmer waters over the next 36 hours. Thus, the intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, bringing Florence close to category 5 strength tomorrow. Near landfall, the vertical wind shear could increase, along with the increasing likelihood of eyewall cycles. While the intensity forecast shows some weakening of the maximum winds near landfall, the wind field is expected to grow with time, which increases the storm surge and inland wind threats. The bottom line is that there is high confidence that Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous hurricane, regardless of its exact intensity.
Florence has recently turned west-northwestward, still moving at 11 kt. The hurricane is expected to accelerate in that direction over the next day or two due to building mid-level ridge over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. By late Wednesday, a turn toward the northwest is forecast due to the orientation of the Atlantic ridge, along with a decrease in forward speed due to a new ridge building over the Great Lakes. There is a new player in the forecast as well, with the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean adding some uncertainty in the ridge strength over the southeastern United States. Perhaps it isn't surprising that the model spread has increased on this cycle, with a small eastward shift overall. The official forecast is nudged in the direction of the trend, but is west of the model consensus. It is important not to focus on the exact forecast track as average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about 140 and 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend well away from the center.
The NOAA G-IV jet will continue to conduct synoptic surveillance missions every 12 h through at least Wednesday. In addition, special 0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches have been expanded to additional upper-air stations across the U.S. are to collect extra data for the numerical models.
Key Messages:
1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and a Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by Tuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.
3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch will likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.
4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 25.4N 61.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 26.0N 63.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 27.0N 66.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 28.6N 69.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 30.4N 72.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 33.7N 77.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 35.6N 78.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/1800Z 36.5N 79.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
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7:10 pm on September 10, 2018
Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018
Unfortunately, the models were right. Florence has rapidly intensified into an extremely dangerous hurricane, with 30-second GOES-16 visible imagery showing well-defined eyewall mesovortices rotating inside of the eye. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found peak SFMR winds of about 120 kt, with flight-level winds and dropsonde measurements also supporting that value for the initial wind speed estimate. Notably, the aircraft data also show the size of the hurricane-force winds has doubled in the past 12 hours.
None of the guidance suggest that Florence has peaked in intensity, and this is supported by a continuation of a low-shear environment, and even warmer waters over the next 36 hours. Thus, the intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, bringing Florence close to category 5 strength tomorrow. Near landfall, the vertical wind shear could increase, along with the increasing likelihood of eyewall cycles. While the intensity forecast shows some weakening of the maximum winds near landfall, the wind field is expected to grow with time, which increases the storm surge and inland wind threats. The bottom line is that there is high confidence that Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous hurricane, regardless of its exact intensity.
Florence has recently turned west-northwestward, still moving at 11 kt. The hurricane is expected to accelerate in that direction over the next day or two due to building mid-level ridge over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. By late Wednesday, a turn toward the northwest is forecast due to the orientation of the Atlantic ridge, along with a decrease in forward speed due to a new ridge building over the Great Lakes. There is a new player in the forecast as well, with the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean adding some uncertainty in the ridge strength over the southeastern United States. Perhaps it isn't surprising that the model spread has increased on this cycle, with a small eastward shift overall. The official forecast is nudged in the direction of the trend, but is west of the model consensus. It is important not to focus on the exact forecast track as average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about 140 and 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend well away from the center.
The NOAA G-IV jet will continue to conduct synoptic surveillance missions every 12 h through at least Wednesday. In addition, special 0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches have been expanded to additional upper-air stations across the U.S. are to collect extra data for the numerical models.
Key Messages:
1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and a Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by Tuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.
3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch will likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.
4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 25.4N 61.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 26.0N 63.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 27.0N 66.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 28.6N 69.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 30.4N 72.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 33.7N 77.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 35.6N 78.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/1800Z 36.5N 79.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
CROWDFUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES
If you receive value from what Macon Media provides to the community, please consider becoming a supporter and contribute at least a dollar a month.
If you have a business or event you are interested in sponsorship opportunities or underwriting coverage, send an email to editor@MaconMedia.com for more information. Serious inquiries only. Macon Media rewards early sponsors/underwriters with lifetime guaranteed low rates while newer sponsors/underwriters pay higher rates based on the date they first support Macon Media.
Thank You to the people who have been sending in donations and those businesses who are underwriting coverage of news and events. You have kept Macon Media online.
7:10 pm on September 10, 2018
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