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Saturday, September 15, 2018

Daily Weather Briefing for Saturday, September 15, 2018





Sign up for Reverse-911 Calls and Alerts

Macon County contracts with OnSolve LLC to provide Reverse 911 Calls and Alert Calls to those registered to receive such alerts. Visit their website at https://public.coderedweb.com/CNE/en-US/692F85D5FF07 to sign up.

The New Town Bridge Has Opened

Readers reported that the new bridge replacing the old town bridge opened to traffic on one lane Thursday afternoon with no ribbon-cutting, no fanfare. A couple of local quadcopter operators took video and photos of the bridge.

MaconQuad [LINK]



See photos on Facebook. [LINK



Karcher Aerial Imaging [LINK]



See photos on Facebook. [LINK]

Florence from Formation to Landfall

The Wall Street Journal created a time lapse of GOES-16 satellite imagery showing Florence from the time it formed to landfall at 7:15 am yesterday.




LOCAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Florence will continue to track inland through the Carolinas this weekend as it weakens. This will result in a threat of widespread flooding later this weekend into early next week. Drying will occur across the forecast area as Florence pulls away from the southeast early next week. Our impacts from the remnants of Florence will be limited, with most of the rain and rain to our east. The Highlands area and elevations above 3,000 feet will see higher winds gusts and more rain than the rest of the county. The graphic below is from the latest rainfall estimate from the local National Weather Service Office on how much rainfall is expected to fall between 8 am this morning to 8 pm Tuesday night. Franklin is expected to receive something in the neighborhood of an inch and a half of rain in that time period. The northwest section of the county will receive the least rainfall (less than 2 inches) and the southeast section is expected to receive up to 3 inches of rainfall by 8 pm Tuesday night.

**note** The graphic below was replaced at 4:27 am with a newer (and lower) rainfall estimate and the above text changed to reflect the new forecast. --Bobby



From the National Weather Service:

Tropical cyclone Florence is expected to move slowly westward after making landfall along the Carolina coast on Friday. Despite weakening quickly to a tropical storm and tropical depression as it moves west through the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia, it will bring very significant impacts to the region through the weekend and possibly into Monday. Very heavy rainfall due to Florence is becoming increasingly likely this weekend. Prepare now for flooding rainfall, landslides along steep terrain in the mountains, and gusty winds that could damage trees and power lines. In addition, the threat of isolated tornadoes will increase across the area on Sunday. The track of Florence, and the latest forecast of the elements, will need to be monitored very closely over the next several days.




WEATHER SPONSOR



Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing & public safety updates for the month.

Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC. Visit our Facebook page at:
https://www.facebook.com/Adams.Oldcastle.Franklin.NC/

All your masonry needs are available. Our phone number is 828.524.8545, the public is welcome, we’ll help you with your with your next project.

Weather Almanac for September 15th (1872-2016)
Record weather events for this date in Macon County

Highest Temperature 93°F in Nantahala in 1971
Lowest Temperature 34°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station in 1985
Greatest Rainfall 4.00 inches in Highlands in 1903

Record Weather Events for September (1872-2017)

Highest Temperature 98°F in Franklin on Sept 4, 1975
Lowest Temperature 27°F in Franklin on Sept 30, 1967
Greatest Rainfall 11.87 inches in Highlands on Sept 29, 1964

Record weather events for this date and month in Macon County

Record Weather Events for Sept 15th in North Carolina

Highest Temperature 104°F in Belhaven, Beaufort County in 1921
Lowest Temperature 29°F in Celo, Yancey County in 1985
Greatest Rainfall 13.38 inches in Wilmington, New Hanover County in 1999
(rainfall was due to Hurricane Floyd) [LINK] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Floyd


Record Weather Events for September in North Carolina

Highest Temperature 109°F in Weldon, Halifax County on 09-07-1954
Lowest Temperature 23°F in Marion, McDowell County on 09-28-2000
Greatest Rainfall 18.30 inches in Southport, Brunswick County on 09-16-1999


WEATHER FORECAST MAPS

Forecast maps for 8 am, 2 pm, and 8 pm. 

[click on any image in this article to enlarge]
(These images replace the three-day forecast maps)





THREE DAY OUTLOOK



--------------------------------------

FRANKLIN AREA

TODAY

A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Northwest wind 6 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

TONIGHT

A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely after 7pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 65. North northwest wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

SUNDAY

Showers, mainly before 2pm, then rain likely after 2pm. The rain could be heavy at times. Patchy fog before 8am. High near 75. North wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT

Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 65. North northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

MONDAY

A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

MONDAY NIGHT

A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 30%.



--------------------------------------

OTTO AREA

TODAY

A slight chance of showers between noon and 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. North northwest wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

TONIGHT

A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely after 7pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 65. North northwest wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

SUNDAY

Showers, mainly before 2pm, then rain after 2pm. The rain could be heavy at times. Patchy fog before 8am. High near 75. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT

Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 65. North northeast wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

MONDAY

A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Mostly cloudy, with highs near the upper 70s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

MONDAY NIGHT

A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 30%.



--------------------------------------

HIGHLANDS AREA

TODAY

A slight chance of showers between noon and 1pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with highs in the lower 70s. North wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

TONIGHT

A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely after 7pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, cloudy, with lows in the lower 60s. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

SUNDAY

Showers before 2pm, then rain after 2pm. The rain could be heavy at times. Patchy fog before 8am. High near 70. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.


SUNDAY NIGHT

Showers. Lows in the lower 60s. East wind 5 to 108 mph becoming south after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

MONDAY

Showers likely before 11am, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

MONDAY NIGHT

A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with lows near the lower 60s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.



--------------------------------------

NANTAHALA AREA

TODAY

A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

TONIGHT

A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely after 7pm. Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with lows near the lower 60s. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

SUNDAY

Showers likely before 2pm, then rain likely after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. North wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three-quarters of an inch possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT

Showers likely. Cloudy, with lows near the lower 60s. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

MONDAY

Showers likely before noon, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

MONDAY NIGHT

A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with lows near the lower 60s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.



--------------------------------------



GOES-16 GeoColor - True Color daytime, multispectral IR
11:32 pm last night to 2:27 am this morning


HAZARDS

Winds may become gusty toward daybreak Saturday as Florence approaches
from the east. Areas most impacted will be the higher elevations and the southeastern portion of the county, which could see wind gusts in the 25 mph range and between 4 and 6 inches of rain over the next few days as the remnants of Florence pass close to our area and exit the region to the north
.

The National Weather Service has issued a Wind Advisory and it is posted below.



WIND ADVISORY

...Elevated Winds With Strong Gusts Expected With The Passage of Florence...

.The Passage of Florence will bring elevated winds with strong gusts to much of Upstate South Carolina, Western North Carolina, and parts of Northeast Georgia. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph will be common, along with gusts above 40 mph. For the mountain areas, elevated winds and strong gusts are expected to be limited to elevations above 3000 ft.

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Areas in the Southern Appalachian Mountains above 3000 ft.

* TIMING...Saturday morning until Sunday morning.

* WINDS...Northeast 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.


Macon Media maintains a Severe Weather Preparedness Page at http://thunderpigblog.blogspot.com/p/breaking-news-hub.html for those who are interested.

As always, you can check to see what advisories, watches, and warnings are in effect for Macon County by visiting http://is.gd/MACONWARN



GOES 16 - Band 15 - 12.3 µm - Dirty Longwave Window - IR (Precipitation)
11:37 pm last night to 2:32 am this morning

TROPICAL OUTLOOK



Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 63
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

Although we lost data from the Wilmington, North Carolina, WSR-88D radar several hours ago, the radars from Raleigh and Columbia have clearly shown Florence's center has moved into extreme eastern South Carolina. Reflectivities around the eye have been decreasing, but there are still some strong spiral bands moving from southeast to northwest across portions of southeastern North Carolina. Maximum Doppler velocities are 65-70 kt from 5000-7000 feet, and on this b,asis Florence's maximum surface winds are estimated to be 55 kt.

Radar fixes indicate that Florence has turned west-southwestward and has an initial motion of 255/4 kt. A mid-level high centered near Iowa and Missouri is expected to slide eastward to the north of Florence over the next 48 hours, which should cause the storm to maintain a slow motion and gradually turn toward the west and northwest over the Carolinas. For this period, the new official forecast track has been shifted a bit southward to follow an overall trend in the model guidance, but this isn't surprising given what some of the models were showing last night. After 48 hours, Florence is expected to get picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies, accelerating north and northeastward to the western Atlantic by day 5. The NHC track forecast is fairly close to the TVCN multi-model consensus and just a little south of the previous forecast beyond 72 hours.

Florence's winds should continue to slowly decay as the center ambles farther inland, but enough of the circulation should remain over water to allow the cyclone to remain as a tropical storm for the next 24 hours or so. This thinking follows the global model fields of the GFS and ECMWF models. After 24 hours, most of Florence's circulation should be inland, allowing the cyclone to weaken to a tropical depression and eventually degenerate into a remnant low over the Ohio Valley by day 3. The remnant low is then likely to become an extratropical low by day 4, and it forecast to begin producing gale-force winds well east of New England to the south of Atlantic Canada.

Although coastal storm surge flooding will gradually subside tonight and Saturday, it cannot be emphasized enough that another serious hazard associated with slow-moving Florence will continue to be extremely heavy rainfall. More than a foot of rain has already fallen across portions of southeastern North Carolina, and more rain is still to come, which will cause disastrous flooding that will spread inland through the weekend.



Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge will continue along portions of the North Carolina coast through tonight, and also along the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers in western Pamlico Sound, where rainfall and freshwater flooding will also contribute to high water levels. Dangerous storm surge could also affect portions of the northeast coast of South Carolina coast tonight.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash floods and prolonged significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas and the southern to central Appalachians from western North Carolina into southwest Virginia through early next week, as Florence moves slowly inland. In addition to the flash flood and flooding threat, landslides are also possible in the higher terrain of the southern and central Appalachians across western North Carolina into southwest Virginia.

3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast within the tropical storm warning area and also well inland across portions of South Carolina and North Carolina through Saturday.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 33.8N 79.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
12H 15/1200Z 33.7N 79.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 16/0000Z 33.8N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 16/1200Z 34.4N 81.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/0000Z 35.9N 83.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/0000Z 39.3N 81.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0000Z 41.0N 74.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/0000Z 43.5N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP







Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Florence, located inland over extreme eastern South Carolina, on Tropical Storm Helene, located about 500 miles west-southwest of the Azores, on Tropical Storm Isaac, located over the central Caribbean Sea, and on Tropical Storm Joyce, located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Azores.

1. A broad area of low pressure could form near Bermuda early next week. Additional development, if any, is expected to be slow while the system moves little.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.



MACON CALENDAR

If you have an event you wish to be added to this calendar, please send the information, along with a flyer in pdf format or a high-quality photo, to editor@maconmedia.com. If you want text published, please include a paragraph with your photo, flyer or graphics. Please include date(s) and time(s).
There is no charge for civic, educational or nonprofit groups, except for groups or events that receive funding from the TDA, TDC, and EDC, where full rates apply.

Organizers of political events must make themselves available for a video interview at least 7 days before a political event they wish Macon Media to promote. Two weeks is the preferred time frame to maximize awareness.


Uptown Gallery classes
(These are on-going classes – repeat weekly)

Free classes and open studio times are being offered at The Uptown Gallery in Franklin. Join others at a painting open studio session every Tuesday from 6:30 pm – 9:00 pm or on Thursday from 11:00 am – 3:00 pm.
Bring your own materials and join an on-going drawing course led by gallery artists on Fridays, from 11am – 2 pm. For information on days open, hours and additional art classes and workshops, contact the gallery on 30 East Main Street at (828) 349 – 4607.

National Alliance on Mental Illness
Appalachian South


Meets each Thursday at 7pm
The First Methodist Church Outreach Center
at the intersection of Harrison Ave. and West Main Street
(directly across from Lazy Hiker Brewery)

Come join our weekly support group for anyone suffering from mental illness and their family or friends. This includes Depression, Bipolar,8chizophrenia, PTSD, Substance Abuse, Etc.

Here you will find:
— others living with mental health challenges YOU ARE NOT ALONE
- learn coping skills and ?find hope in shared experience
- help learning how to break down stigma and guilt surrounding mental health
- how to live life with the expectation of a better a better future

Kay (706)970-9987 Denise (828)347-5000)

SYRINGE EXCHANGE PROGRAM

On January 1, 2017, the Syringe Exchange Program of Franklin began operating a comprehensive harm reduction program to address the opioid epidemic that is impacting western NC. Opioid overdose reversal kits including naloxone are available free of charge. If you have any questions about our services or if you know someone interested in volunteering, please contact Stephanie Almeida at 828-475-1920.



Sun and Moon

Sun

Begin civil twilight 6:51 a.m.
Sunrise 7:16 a.m.
Sun transit 1:29 p.m.
Sunset 7:40 p.m.
End civil twilight 8:06 p.m.


Moon

Moonrise 1:18 p.m.
Moon transit 6:36 p.m.
Moonset 11:51 p.m.


Phase of the Moon on September 15, 2018: Waxing Crescent with 37% of the Moon's visible disk illuminated.
Closest Primary Moon Phase: First Quarter on September 16, 2018 at 7:15 p.m. (local daylight time)


Sky Guides for this week


Sky and Telescope Magazine 
Astronomy Magazine


There will be three solar and two lunar eclipses in 2018. [LINK]

Heavens Above has an Android App that will assist you in observing the sky and even has a satellite tracker that will let you know when the International Space Station and dozens of other satellites are overhead. [LINK]

Stellarium is also an app that will assist you in observing the sky. It is available in both Android [LINK] and iOS versions. [LINK]

CROWDFUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES


If you receive value from what Macon Media provides to the community, please consider becoming a supporter and contribute at least a dollar a month.



Become a Patron!

If you have a business or event you are interested in sponsorship opportunities or underwriting coverage, send an email to editor@MaconMedia.com for more information. Serious inquiries only. Macon Media rewards early sponsors/underwriters with lifetime guaranteed low rates while newer sponsors/underwriters pay higher rates based on the date they first support Macon Media.

Thank You to the people who have been sending in donations and those businesses who are underwriting coverage of news and events. You have kept Macon Media online.

3:25 am on September 15, 2018

#WNCscan #MaconWx #MaconSafety


Data and information sources: Sources (except where otherwise credited): heavens-above.com, Ian Webster's Github, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, The National Weather Service, National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, National Hurricane Center, Penn State University Electronic Wall Map, The State Climate Office of North Carolina, Storm Prediction Center, U.S. Naval Observatory, University of Utah Department of Atmospheric Sciences, and the Weather Prediction Center.

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