News and Weather Briefing for Friday, November 6, 2020

OUTLOOK

Warm and dry high pressure will remain in place through Saturday. An increasingly moist easterly flow develops from Sunday into next week, slowly bringing rain chances back to the region. Tropical moisture may add to our rain amounts in mid to late week. Temperatures will be well above normal.


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General forecast through Sunday night


Today

Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with highs ranging from the lower 60s in the higher elevations and near 70 in the lower elevations. Calm winds.

Tonight

Mostly clear, with lows ranging from the upper 30s in the higher elevations to the mid-40s in the lower elevations. Calm winds.

Saturday Patchy fog in the morning. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs ranging from the mid-60s in the higher elevations to the lower 70s in the lower elevations. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Saturday Night

Increasing clouds, with lows ranging from the mid-40s in the higher elevations to the mid-50s in the lower elevations. Light winds out of the east.

Sunday

Partly sunny, with highs ranging from the mid-60s in the higher elevations to the lower 70s in the lower elevations. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Sunday Night

Mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from near 50 in the higher elevations to the mid-50s in the lower elevations.




News Brief


2020 Presidential Election

The votes are still being counted for the office of president and results may not be known for days.

Incumbent Donald Trump gave a press conference about the election from the White House.



Challenger Joe Biden gave a brief speech about the election and the pandemic.



COVID-19 UPDATE

Coronavirus Briefing: NC Gov. Roy Cooper (11/05/20)



Here are the latest COVID-19 Numbers and Demographics Report from Macon Public Health, along with a couple of charts by Macon Media to show you the long-term trends since May 30, 2020, when the health department started releasing numbers to Macon Media.

Cases

788 Detected
(+3 from Wedneday and +29 from last Thursday and +113 in four weeks)

39 Active
(+1 from Wedneday and +10 from last Thursday and +6 in four weeks)

742 Recovered
(+2 from Wedneday and +19 from last Thursday and +107 in four weeks)

7 Deaths
(unchanged from Wedneday and unchanged from last Thursday and unchanged in four weeks)

Testing

6542 by MCPH
(unchanged from Wedneday and +154 from last Thursday and +671 in four weeks)

3180 by Others
(unchanged from Wedneday and +94 from last Thursday and +848 in four weeks)

9722 total
(unchanged from Wedneday and +248 from last Thursday and +1519 in four weeks)

93 tests pending results
(unchanged from Wedneday and -33 from last Thursday and +12 in four weeks)

HAZARDS


Hazardous weather is not anticipated for today.



Air Quality

Air quality is in the lower range of yellow today for all elevations.

Pollen

Pollen levels are expected to be low (1.8 out of 12) with ragweed being the main culprit. Tomorrow is expected to be a little higher (2.1 out of 12).


Weather Extremes for Macon County for November 6th

Highest Temperature 78°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station in 1961
Lowest Temperature 14°F in Franklin in 1962
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 2.55 inches in Franklin in 1977 Greatest One-Day Snowfall (there has been snowfall recorded on this date since record-keeping began in 1872)

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TROPICAL WEATHER
(The North Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to Nov 30th)



Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan (video recorded yesterday)

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Eta, located over the Gulf of Honduras.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

Although satellite images and surface observations suggest that the circulation of Eta is elongated, deep convection has been increasing near and over the center during the past several hours. Unfortunately, the ASCAT scatterometer missed the region where Eta is located, so there has not been much additional data to analyze the structure and intensity of the cyclone. The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt based on a 2.0/30 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Eta later today, and that data will be helpful in analyzing the cyclone.

The depression is moving northward at 7 kt. Eta is forecast to turn northeastward later today, and accelerate slightly in that direction through Saturday in response to a mid- to upper-level trough that is expected to slide southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico. This motion should take Eta to the west of the Cayman Islands on Saturday and then across Cuba Saturday night or Sunday. Around the time Eta is forecast to be near Cuba, the models show the storm slowing down and turning northwestward or westward as the trough cuts off, and Eta pivots around the north side of that cut off low. This change in the storm motion should bring Eta near or over the Florida Keys and south Florida late in the weekend and early next week. The details in the location and timing of where Eta and the mid- to upper-level low interact will be very important to the exact track of Eta for south Florida and the Florida Keys. The new track forecast is a touch to the north of the previous one when Eta is expected to be near Florida, to be in better agreement with the latest consensus aids.

The cyclone is currently over warm water, in a moist environment, and will be moving into a region of upper-level diffluence as it tracks across the northwestern Caribbean Sea. These conditions should allow for thunderstorms to organize near the center and for the cyclone to gradually intensify during the next couple of days. However, rapid intensification seems unlikely given the broad structure of Eta. The models show an increase in shear and some dry air entraining into the circulation around the time it nears Cuba this weekend, which in combination with land interaction could limit additional strengthening by then. The intensity forecast for the 72-120 hour period is more complicated as it will depend on the trough interaction mentioned above. Most of the intensity models show Eta holding steady in strength after its passage over Cuba, and the NHC forecast does the same.

The wind field of Eta is expected to increase in size during the next few days, and the cyclone will likely produce a large area of tropical-storm-force winds on its north side when it is near Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida.

Key Messages:

1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later today. Although the details of the future track and intensity of Eta are still uncertain, there is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys and the northwestern Bahamas this weekend and early next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 17.3N 87.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 18.0N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 19.1N 84.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 20.2N 82.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 21.8N 80.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 23.5N 79.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 24.6N 80.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 25.1N 83.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 25.9N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH



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Published at 6:45am Friday, November 06, 2020