OUTLOOK
Warm and dry high pressure will shift slightly north and east of our region on today through early next week. Meanwhile, a cold front will slowly approach from the west, while Tropical Cyclone Eta tracks near southern Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. A persistent, moist easterly to southeasterly flow between these features will increase the rain chances for most of the upcoming week but especially for Tuesday and Wednesday.
---BEGIN SPONSOR SEGMENT---
DAY SPONSOR
Carrion Tree Service is underwriting Macon Media for today. they are a fully licensed and insured tree service, specializing in dangerous tree removal, view clearing, pruning, and crane services with a 24 Hour emergency response.
Their phone number is 371-4718.
They can handle all your tree removal needs in good or bad weather.
Weather Sponsor
Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing & public safety updates for the month.
Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC. Visit our Facebook page at: https://www.facebook.com/Adams.Oldcastle.Franklin.NC/
All your masonry needs are available. Our phone number is 828.524.8545, the public is welcome, we’ll help you with your next project.
--- END SPONSOR SEGMENT---
General forecast through Wednesday night
Today
Mostly sunny, with highs ranging from the mid-60s in the higher elevations to the lower 70s in the lower elevations. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers after midnight. Patchy fog after 5am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with lows ranging from near 50 in the higher elevation to the mid-50s in the lower elevations. Calm winds.
Tuesday
Patchy fog in the morning. A 40 percent chance of rain, mainly after 10am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with highs ranging from the lower 60s to near 70 in the lower elevations. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tuesday Night
Rain likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Lows ranging from near 60 in the higher elevations to the mid-60s in the lower elevations. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Veterans Day
Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Highs ranging from the upper 60s in the higher elevations to the mid-70s in the lower elevations. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Wednesday Night
Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from the mid-50s in the higher elevation to near 60 in the lower elevations. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
HAZARDS
Hazardous weather is not expected today.
A deep fetch of tropical Atlantic moisture will arrive across the region by Tuesday evening and likely persist through at least Wednesday evening. This setup may support locally heavy rainfall with isolated flooding also possible, especially near the eastern slopes of the southern Appalachians. A second round of tropical moisture and with periods of heavy rain may arrive later in the week as the remnants of Eta pass to our east.
COVID-19 Briefing
Dr John Campbell: Mink Mutation
Read more at "SARS-CoV-2 mink-associated variant strain – Denmark" [LINK]
TWiV 679: Mink, mutation, and myocytes
(Released November 5th)
Daniel Griffin provides a clinical report on COVID-19, Slovlakia's plan to test all adults for SARS-CoV-2 infection, viral variants arising in Danish mink and their potential threat to humans, why it is unethical to carry out challenge trials, Nipah virus dynamics in bats and spillovers into humans, and direct cardiac damage by spike-mediated cardiomyocyte fusion. Show notes at [LINK]
Here are the latest COVID-19 Numbers and Demographics Report from Macon Public Health, along with a couple of charts by Macon Media to show you the long-term trends since May 30, 2020, when the health department started releasing numbers to Macon Media.
Cases
796 Detected
(+8 from Thursday and +34 from last Friday and +116 in four weeks)
42 Active
(+3 from Thursday and +16 from last Friday and +8 in four weeks)
747 Recovered
(+5 from Thursday and +18 from last Friday and +108 in four weeks)
7 Deaths
(unchanged from Thursday and unchanged from last Friday and unchanged in four weeks)
Testing
6588 by MCPH
(+46 from Thursday and +142 from last Friday and +668 in four weeks)
3180 by Others
(unchanged from Thursday and +94 from last Friday and +847 in four weeks)
9768 total
(+46 from Thursday and +236 from last Friday and +1515 in four weeks)
139 tests pending results
(+66 from Thursday and -45 from last Friday and +9 in four weeks)
Air Quality
Air quality is in the lower range of yellow today for all elevations.
Pollen
Pollen levels are expected to be low (2.1 out of 12) with ragweed being the main culprit. Tomorrow is expected to be lower (0.3 out of 12).
Weather Extremes for Macon County for November 8th
Highest Temperature 78°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station in 1975
Lowest Temperature 13°F in Highlands in 1900
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 2.55 inches in Highlands in 2015 Greatest One-Day Snowfall 4.0 inches in Highlands in 1968
TROPICAL WEATHER
(The North Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to Nov 30th)
Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan (video recorded yesterday)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Eta, located near Florida Bay.
1. Shower activity associated with a non-tropical low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores is showing some signs of organization. This system will likely gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics this week, and a tropical or subtropical storm could develop within a few days while this system moves eastward or east-northeastward over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medum...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
2. A tropical wave is forecast to move over the central Caribbean Sea, where an area of low pressure could form in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020
Although deep convection has waned near the center of Eta since this afternoon, radar imagery continues to show a ring of low-topped convection around the center, with some deep convection returning over the northeastern portion of the circulation. Doppler radar velocities of 64-68 kt around 5000 ft, and recent NOAA reconnaissance aircraft observations support maintaining the 55 kt initial intensity. The aircraft reported a minimum pressure of around 993 mb.
Since Eta has a fairly large radius of maximum winds and a dry slot that has wrapped into the inner core, it appears that any short-term strengthening should be slow to occur. As a result, the new NHC intensity forecast calls for a little less strengthening until Eta moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in about 24 hours. Regardless of whether Eta becomes a hurricane near the Florida Keys, there is little difference in impacts between a 55-to-60-kt tropical storm and a 65-kt hurricane. After 24 hours, Eta is forecast to move over warmer sea surface temperatures in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and the vertical shear is forecast to decrease. This is expected to allow for some strengthening and Eta is forecast re-gain hurricane strengthen by Tuesday. Gradual weakening is predicted between 72-120 hours due to increasing southwesterly shear and the entrainment of dry mid-level air. The updated NHC intensity forecast is near the SHIPS/LGEM models during the first couple of days, and in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model thereafter.
Eta has turned northwestward this evening around the north side of a cut-off low located just south of western Cuba. The tropical cyclone should turn west-northwestward to westward overnight, and a southwestward motion is expected on Tuesday as Eta pivots around the upper-low. In 36-48 h, Eta is expected to slow down and possibly stall over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as the steering currents weakening. In about 3 days, Eta should begin moving northward between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a broad trough over the central United States. The models that maintain Eta has a deeper system show a faster northeastward motion late in the period, whereas models that weaken Eta slow its northward progression by day 5. The NHC track forecast lies near the model consensus at 96 and 120 h, and is similar to the previous advisory.
Key Messages
1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central Florida. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible across the urban areas of southeast Florida. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in Cuba, and significant flash and urban flooding are possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida.
2. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Monday across portions of the Florida Keys, and are possible across portions of southern Florida. Tropical storm conditions will extend well away from Eta's center across the southern and central portions of the Florida peninsula.
3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge in portions of the Florida Keys. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
4. Eta is forecast to approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and could bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 24.6N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 24.9N 82.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 24.2N 84.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 23.6N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 24.2N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 25.5N 84.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 26.6N 84.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 28.2N 83.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 30.0N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
CROWDFUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES
If you receive value from what Macon Media provides to the community, please consider becoming a supporter and contribute at least a dollar a month. Those who support Macon Media with at least a dollar a month receive early access to video of some events and meetings before they are made public on the website. Videos and news involving public safety are not subject to early access.
Or, if you prefer Pay Pal, try PayPal.me/MaconMedia
Published at 4:45am Monday, November 09, 2020
Posts
0 comments :
Post a Comment