OUTLOOK
A plume of deep tropical moisture from the Atlantic has spread over the area last night, ahead of a slow moving cold front that approaches from the west. The front will slowly cross the forecast area today through early Friday, helping generate widespread rain.
Veterans Day Vaterans Day will be observed this year in a private ceremony at a new facility in the Onion Mountain area established to help Gold Star families and veterans. Macon Media will, if there is enough internet bandwidth, stream live video of the ceremony. The ceremony will also be broadcast live on 1050 WFSC-AM and 104.1 WNCC-FM. < br/>
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General forecast through Friday night
Today
Showers and thunderstorms before 1pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly after 1pm. Patchy fog before 11am. Highs ranging from the mid-to-upper 60s in the higher elevations to the mid-70s in the lower elevations. Light winds out of the southeast. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tonight
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 3am, then showers likely. Patchy fog. Lows raing from the low-to-mid 60s in the higher elevations to near 60 in the lower elevations. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three-quarters of an inch possible.
Thursday
Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 4pm, then a slight chance of showers. Otherwise, partly sunny, with highs ranginf from the upper 60s in the higher elevations to the mid-70s in the lower elevations. Light winds out of the northwest. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with lows ranging from the mid-40s in the higher elevations to near 50 in the lower elevations. Calm winds.
Friday
Sunny, with highs ranging from the mid-60s in the higher elevations to the lower 70s in the lower elevations.
Friday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers after 2am. Partly cloudy, with lows ranging from the upper 30s in the higher elevations to the mid-40s in the lower elevations.
HAZARDS
Macon County is under a Flood Watch until 7pm Friday afternoon. A copy of the warning is posted below.
A second round of tropical moisture and with periods of heavy rain may arrive this weekend as the remnants of Eta pass to our east.
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
318 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...
The Flood Watch continues for portions of northeast Georgia...North Carolina and upstate South Carolina, including the following areas,
in northeast Georgia,
Rabun.
In North Carolina,
Alexander, Avery, Buncombe, Burke Mountains, Caldwell Mountains, Catawba, Eastern McDowell, Eastern Polk, Graham, Greater Burke, Greater Caldwell, Greater Rutherford, Haywood, Henderson, Macon, Madison, McDowell Mountains, Mitchell, Northern Jackson, Polk Mountains, Rutherford Mountains, Southern Jackson, Swain, Transylvania and Yancey.
In upstate South Carolina,
Greenville Mountains, Oconee Mountains and Pickens Mountains.
* Through Thursday evening
* Flooding may occur through this morning near the south and southeast-facing areas of the Blue Ridge Escarpment and adjacent foothills. Rainfall may diminish from late morning to early afternoon, but likely will occur again this evening through Thursday. Flooding will become increasingly likely in areas that experience multiple rounds of heavy rainfall.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. Please monitor the latest forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
News Brief
The Macon County Board of Commissioners met last night for their regular meeting for the month of November. [LINK]
COVID-19 Briefing
Coronavirus Briefing: NC Gov. Roy Cooper (11/10/20)
The governor has paused North Carolina at Phase 3 for three more weeks and has dropped the limit on the number of people who can gather indoors from 25 to 10. He and the DHHS Director emphasize the 3Ws in order to slow the spread of COVID-19 so our hospitals are not overwhelmed like they are in other states.
Dr John Campbell: Hydroxychloroquine as a theraputic
Biden COVID-19 advisory board member Michael Osterholm on pandemic response challenges
Here are the latest COVID-19 Numbers and Demographics Report from Macon Public Health, along with a couple of charts by Macon Media to show you the long-term trends since May 30, 2020, when the health department started releasing numbers to Macon Media.
Cases
811 Detected
(+6 from Monday and +30 from last Tuesday and +112 in four weeks)
40 Active
(+2 from Monday and +4 from last Tuesday and +8 in four weeks)
763 Recovered
(+4 from Monday and +25 from last Tuesday and +103 in four weeks)
8 Deaths
(+1 from Monday and +1 from last Tuesday and +1 in four weeks)
Testing
6647 by MCPH
(unchanged from Monday and +159 from last Tuesday and +659 in four weeks)
3307 by Others
(unchanged from Monday and +227 from last Tuesday and +861 in four weeks)
9954 total
(unchanged from Monday and +286 from last Tuesday and +1540 in four weeks)
87 tests pending results
(unchanged from Monday and +1 from last Tuesday and +16 in four weeks)
Air Quality
Air quality is in the mid-to-upper range of green today for all elevations.
Pollen
Pollen levels are expected to be low (0.3 out of 12) with ragweed being the main culprit. Tomorrow is expected to be lower (0.3 out of 12).
Weather Extremes for Macon County for November 11th
Highest Temperature 80°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station in 2006
Lowest Temperature 0°F in Nantahala in 1950
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 2.88 inches in Highlands in 1998 Greatest One-Day Snowfall 2.0 inches in Highlands in 1968
TROPICAL WEATHER
(The North Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to Nov 30th)
Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan (video recorded yesterday)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Eta, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and on Tropical Storm Theta, located over the eastern Atlantic.
1. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to move slowly westward into more conducive environmental conditions over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the wave reaches the central or western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible flash flooding to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of Hispaniola over the next couple of days. For more detailed information, refer to products issued by your local weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020
Eta has become better organized over the past few hours, with a better-defined eye feature on the Key West radar. Satellite pictures also show a more symmetric presentation and a large cluster of deep convection near the center. Radar data has shown increasing wind speeds in the mid-levels, which supports conservatively raising the initial wind speed to 60 kt. The current position is southwest of the eye feature on radar, assuming some shear remains, but a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be in the storm in a few hours to acquire better data on both the initial position and intensity.
It appears that the center of Eta has re-formed to the north- northeast tonight, so an initial motion is hard to determine, but is estimated to be northward at about 10 kt. Remarkably, model guidance has become well clustered just east of the previous forecast track as it seems apparent that Eta will now recurve around the ridge toward the Florida Big Bend region and out into the western Atlantic Ocean. The biggest change is that the models are faster than before, and the official forecast follows that lead, along with a small eastward forecast adjustment, near or just east of the model consensus.
Further strengthening is possible today while the shear remains low-to-moderate. However, all of the models do show increasing shear by tonight, and the NHC forecast continues to call for weakening of Eta as it approaches the west coast of Florida. However, it would take only a small forecast error to allow Eta to come ashore as a hurricane, and hence a Hurricane Watch has been issued this morning. Rapid weakening is anticipated once Eta makes landfall, and strong shear should prevent any regeneration over the western Atlantic Ocean. The new forecast is a little higher than the previous advisory, mostly due to current trends, and is closer to the more bullish HMON and HWRF models.
Key Messages:
1. Life-threatening storm surge is possible early Thursday along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the west coast of Florida from Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown by early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected by late Wednesday along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwanee River, and are possible Thursday from Suwannee River to Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta, as additional watches and warnings may be needed today.
3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and South Florida and spread northward across portions of West and North Florida Wednesday through Friday. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida on Wednesday, especially across previously inundated areas, and across portions of West Florida through Friday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 25.0N 84.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 27.9N 83.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 29.2N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 13/0600Z 30.2N 81.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 30.9N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 31.0N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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Published at 4:45am Wednesday, November 11, 2020
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