OUTLOOK
Warm and dry high pressure will shift slightly north and east of our region on today through early next week. Meanwhile, a cold front will slowly approach from the west, while Tropical Cyclone Eta tracks near southern Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. A persistent, moist easterly to southeasterly flow between these features will increase the rain chances for most of the upcoming week but especially for Tuesday and Wednesday.
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General forecast through Monday night
Today
Mostly sunny, with highs ranging from the low-to-mid 60s in the higher elevations to the low-to-mid 70s in the lower elevations. Winds out of the southeast 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from the upper 40s in the higher elevations to the mid-50s in the lower elevations. Winds out of the east 5 to 10 mph.
Monday
Patchy fog in the morning. Otherwise, partly sunny, with highs ranging from the lower 60s in the higher elevations to near 70 in the lower elevations. Winds out of the southeast 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from near 50 in the nhigher elevations to the upper 50s in the lower elevations. Winds out of the southeast 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday
Showers likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with highs ranging from the lower 60s in the higher elevations to near 70 in the lower elevations. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday Night
Showers. Lows ranging from the mid-50s in the higher elevation to the lower 60s in the lower elevations. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
HAZARDS
Hazardous weather is not expected today.
A deep fetch of tropical, Atlantic moisture will arrive across the region on Tuesday and likely persist through at least early Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible during this period, with isolated flooding also possible along and near the eastern slopes of the southern Appalachians. This moisture plume will exist well to the north of tropical system Eta, which will likely remain in the eastern Gulf of Mexico during this period.
News Brief
2020 Presidential Election
Most news organizations have projected Joe Biden the winner of the 2020 Presidential election. Votes are still being counted for the office of president and official totals may not be known for days. President Trump is pursuing legal options to contest the results in several states.
Since there was no concession speech by the President last night, here is the vicotory speech he gave in 2016 after the news organizations announced that he was the winner.
Vice President-elect Harris spoke last night in Wilmington, Delaware
Why did the media hold off on calling the presidential race? [LINK]
COVID-19 Briefing
Dr John Campbell: Mutation Update and UK Flattening the Curve
Osterholm Update COVID-19: A New Dialogue
(Released November 6th)
In this episode, Dr. Osterholm and host Chris Dall discuss record-breaking case numbers in the US, public trust in science amid the COVID-19 pandemic, expectations for vaccines, more details related to bubbling, and the risks associated with gatherings.
Here are the latest COVID-19 Numbers and Demographics Report from Macon Public Health, along with a couple of charts by Macon Media to show you the long-term trends since May 30, 2020, when the health department started releasing numbers to Macon Media.
Cases
796 Detected
(+8 from Thursday and +34 from last Friday and +116 in four weeks)
42 Active
(+3 from Thursday and +16 from last Friday and +8 in four weeks)
747 Recovered
(+5 from Thursday and +18 from last Friday and +108 in four weeks)
7 Deaths
(unchanged from Thursday and unchanged from last Friday and unchanged in four weeks)
Testing
6588 by MCPH
(+46 from Thursday and +142 from last Friday and +668 in four weeks)
3180 by Others
(unchanged from Thursday and +94 from last Friday and +847 in four weeks)
9768 total
(+46 from Thursday and +236 from last Friday and +1515 in four weeks)
139 tests pending results
(+66 from Thursday and -45 from last Friday and +9 in four weeks)
Air Quality
Air quality is in the lower range of yellow today for all elevations.
Pollen
Pollen levels are expected to be low (2.4 out of 12) with ragweed being the main culprit. Tomorrow is expected to be a little lower (1.1 out of 12).
Weather Extremes for Macon County for November 8th
Highest Temperature 79°F in Franklin in 1975
Lowest Temperature 15°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station in 1960
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 2.00 inches in Franklins in 1996 Greatest One-Day Snowfall (there has been no snowfall recorded on this date since record-keeping began in 1872)
TROPICAL WEATHER
(The North Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to Nov 30th)
Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan (video recorded yesterday)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Eta, located near central Cuba.
1. A broad non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form several hundred miles southwest of the Azores within the next couple of days. Any subtropical development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves generally eastward or east-northeastward over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean through the middle of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020
Although Eta has a ragged and asymmetric appearance in satellite and radar images, the cloud tops are quite cold with a lot of embedded lightning strikes being detected in the northeastern quadrant. The center is estimated to be very near the south coast of central Cuba, with much of the thunderstorms over the island. Since the storm has not changed much since last evening, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Eta again later this morning once it emerges off the north coast of Cuba.
Eta continues to move northeastward, but at a slightly slower pace of 10 kt. The cyclone is now located just to the east or southeast of a mid- to upper-level low. This feature and a broader trough over the Gulf of Mexico should cause Eta to turn northward later this morning and then northwestward this afternoon and evening. This track should take the core of Eta across central Cuba during the next couple of hours and then into the Straits of Florida. Eta is forecast to pass over the Florida Keys tonight. After that time, a slow westward motion is expected as the cyclone merges with the trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday. Later in the week, the steering currents weaken and Eta will likely be drifting around over the Gulf of Mexico. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the south, or left, of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest models.
The tropical storm is feeling some effects of southwesterly wind shear and water vapor satellite images show a swath of dry air entraining into the western side of the circulation. These factors along with the interaction with the landmass of Cuba later this morning should cause Eta to hold steady in strength or weaken a little in the short term. The shear is expected to lessen when the storm moves over the Straits of Florida, and that could allow Eta to become more symmetric and strengthen, and it could become a hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys tonight. After the cyclone passes the Keys and enters the Gulf of Mexico, there are mixed signals in the models. Although the shear is expected to be moderate while Eta passes over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico Loop current, there will likely be drier air surrounding the storm. As a compromise, the NHC intensity forecast shows Eta holding relatively steady in strength for much of the forecast period.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central Florida. This rain may result in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today in portions of Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.
3. Damaging tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin this afternoon, with hurricane-force winds possible, in the Florida Keys and portions of the southern Florida peninsula, where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Elsewhere across portions of the east and west coasts of the Florida peninsula, the risk of tropical-storm-force winds will extend well away from Eta's center, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect.
4. A dangerous storm surge is possible along portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in the Storm Surge Watch area should follow any advice given by local officials.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 21.5N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 23.0N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 24.5N 81.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 24.3N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 24.2N 84.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 24.2N 85.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 24.6N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 25.8N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 26.7N 84.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
CROWDFUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES
If you receive value from what Macon Media provides to the community, please consider becoming a supporter and contribute at least a dollar a month. Those who support Macon Media with at least a dollar a month receive early access to video of some events and meetings before they are made public on the website. Videos and news involving public safety are not subject to early access.
Become a Patron!
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Published at 4:07am Sunday, November 08, 2020
Dr John Campbell: Mutation Update and UK Flattening the Curve
Osterholm Update COVID-19: A New Dialogue
(Released November 6th)
In this episode, Dr. Osterholm and host Chris Dall discuss record-breaking case numbers in the US, public trust in science amid the COVID-19 pandemic, expectations for vaccines, more details related to bubbling, and the risks associated with gatherings.
Here are the latest COVID-19 Numbers and Demographics Report from Macon Public Health, along with a couple of charts by Macon Media to show you the long-term trends since May 30, 2020, when the health department started releasing numbers to Macon Media.
Cases
796 Detected
(+8 from Thursday and +34 from last Friday and +116 in four weeks)
42 Active
(+3 from Thursday and +16 from last Friday and +8 in four weeks)
747 Recovered
(+5 from Thursday and +18 from last Friday and +108 in four weeks)
7 Deaths
(unchanged from Thursday and unchanged from last Friday and unchanged in four weeks)
Testing
6588 by MCPH
(+46 from Thursday and +142 from last Friday and +668 in four weeks)
3180 by Others
(unchanged from Thursday and +94 from last Friday and +847 in four weeks)
9768 total
(+46 from Thursday and +236 from last Friday and +1515 in four weeks)
139 tests pending results
(+66 from Thursday and -45 from last Friday and +9 in four weeks)
Air Quality
Air quality is in the lower range of yellow today for all elevations.
Pollen
Pollen levels are expected to be low (2.4 out of 12) with ragweed being the main culprit. Tomorrow is expected to be a little lower (1.1 out of 12).
Weather Extremes for Macon County for November 8th
Highest Temperature 79°F in Franklin in 1975
Lowest Temperature 15°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station in 1960
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 2.00 inches in Franklins in 1996 Greatest One-Day Snowfall (there has been no snowfall recorded on this date since record-keeping began in 1872)
TROPICAL WEATHER
(The North Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to Nov 30th)
Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan (video recorded yesterday)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Eta, located near central Cuba.
1. A broad non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form several hundred miles southwest of the Azores within the next couple of days. Any subtropical development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves generally eastward or east-northeastward over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean through the middle of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020
Although Eta has a ragged and asymmetric appearance in satellite and radar images, the cloud tops are quite cold with a lot of embedded lightning strikes being detected in the northeastern quadrant. The center is estimated to be very near the south coast of central Cuba, with much of the thunderstorms over the island. Since the storm has not changed much since last evening, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Eta again later this morning once it emerges off the north coast of Cuba.
Eta continues to move northeastward, but at a slightly slower pace of 10 kt. The cyclone is now located just to the east or southeast of a mid- to upper-level low. This feature and a broader trough over the Gulf of Mexico should cause Eta to turn northward later this morning and then northwestward this afternoon and evening. This track should take the core of Eta across central Cuba during the next couple of hours and then into the Straits of Florida. Eta is forecast to pass over the Florida Keys tonight. After that time, a slow westward motion is expected as the cyclone merges with the trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday. Later in the week, the steering currents weaken and Eta will likely be drifting around over the Gulf of Mexico. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the south, or left, of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest models.
The tropical storm is feeling some effects of southwesterly wind shear and water vapor satellite images show a swath of dry air entraining into the western side of the circulation. These factors along with the interaction with the landmass of Cuba later this morning should cause Eta to hold steady in strength or weaken a little in the short term. The shear is expected to lessen when the storm moves over the Straits of Florida, and that could allow Eta to become more symmetric and strengthen, and it could become a hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys tonight. After the cyclone passes the Keys and enters the Gulf of Mexico, there are mixed signals in the models. Although the shear is expected to be moderate while Eta passes over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico Loop current, there will likely be drier air surrounding the storm. As a compromise, the NHC intensity forecast shows Eta holding relatively steady in strength for much of the forecast period.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central Florida. This rain may result in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today in portions of Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.
3. Damaging tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin this afternoon, with hurricane-force winds possible, in the Florida Keys and portions of the southern Florida peninsula, where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Elsewhere across portions of the east and west coasts of the Florida peninsula, the risk of tropical-storm-force winds will extend well away from Eta's center, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect.
4. A dangerous storm surge is possible along portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in the Storm Surge Watch area should follow any advice given by local officials.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 21.5N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 23.0N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 24.5N 81.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 24.3N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 24.2N 84.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 24.2N 85.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 24.6N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 25.8N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 26.7N 84.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
CROWDFUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES
If you receive value from what Macon Media provides to the community, please consider becoming a supporter and contribute at least a dollar a month. Those who support Macon Media with at least a dollar a month receive early access to video of some events and meetings before they are made public on the website. Videos and news involving public safety are not subject to early access.
Or, if you prefer Pay Pal, try PayPal.me/MaconMedia
Published at 4:07am Sunday, November 08, 2020
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