News and Weather Briefing for Tuesday, November 10, 2020

OUTLOOK

High pressure will move from the Mid-Atlantic coast to a position over the western Atlantic. This high will eventually help to direct a plume of tropical moisture in our direction for the middle part of the week ahead of a slow moving cold front. The front will slowly cross the forecast area Wednesday through early Friday, keeping the weather unsettled.


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General forecast through Thursday night


Today

A chance of rain or drizzle, mainly between 9am and noon, then a chance of rain after noon. Mostly cloudy, with highs ranging from the lower 60s in the higher elevations to near 70 in the lower elevations. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tuesday Night

Rain. Patchy fog after 9pm. Lows ranging from the mid-50s in the higher elevations to the lower 60s in the lower elevations. Calm winds in the early morning increasing to come out of the southeast around 5 mph by midmorning. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Veterans Day

Showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs ranging from the mid-60s in the higher elevations to the low-to-mid 70s in the lower elevations. Light winds out of the southeast. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then showers likely. Lows ranging from the mid-50s in the higher elevations to near 60 in the lower elevations. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Thursday

A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before noon. Mostly sunny, with highs ranging from the mid-to-upper 60s in the higher elevations to the low-to-mid 70s in the lower elevations.

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, with lows ranging from the mid-40s in the higher elevations to near 50 in the lower elevations.


HAZARDS

A deep fetch of tropical Atlantic moisture will arrive across the region by this evening and possibly persist through early Thursday. This setup may support heavy rainfall with isolated flash flooding of low lying areas including near streams and urban areas. The greatest threat for flooding is focused from the eastern slopes of the southern Appalachians eastward along and north of the I-85 corridor.

A second round of tropical moisture and with periods of heavy rain may arrive this weekend as the remnants of Eta pass to our east.

News Brief


An eighth person has died from COVID-19 in Macon County. According to a press release by the Macon County Health Department, the person was over 65 years of age. Kathy McGaha, the Health Director, emphasized the importance of the 3Ws during this pandemic. The 3Ws are: Wait six feet apart, Wash your hands frequently, and Wear a mask when around other people. This provides a firebreak for the virus and slows its spread and can save the live of the people who are most vulnerable to it.

Danny Reitmeier Announces Candidacy for Mayor of Franklin [LINK]

McKenzie Redoutey will be signing with LSU Softball at Cat Creek Lodge on 11/17/20 at 6:30pm. [LINK]

COVID-19 Briefing

Dr John Campbell: Vaccine, game changer



Read more at "Pfizer and Biontech Announce Vaccine Candidate against Covid-19 Achieved Success in First Interim Analysis from Phase 3 Study" [LINK]

TWiV 679: Mink, mutation, and myocytes
(Released November 5th)

Daniel Griffin provides a clinical report on COVID-19, Slovlakia's plan to test all adults for SARS-CoV-2 infection, viral variants arising in Danish mink and their potential threat to humans, why it is unethical to carry out challenge trials, Nipah virus dynamics in bats and spillovers into humans, and direct cardiac damage by spike-mediated cardiomyocyte fusion. Show notes at [LINK]



Here are the latest COVID-19 Numbers and Demographics Report from Macon Public Health, along with a couple of charts by Macon Media to show you the long-term trends since May 30, 2020, when the health department started releasing numbers to Macon Media.

Cases

805 Detected
(+9 from Friday and +29 from last Monday and +110 in four weeks)

38 Active
(-4 from Friday and +6 from last Monday and +5 in four weeks)

759 Recovered
(+12 from Friday and +22 from last Monday and +104 in four weeks)

8 Deaths
(+1 from Friday and +1 from last Monday and +1 in four weeks)


Testing

6647 by MCPH
(+59 from Friday and +159 from last Monday and +679 in four weeks)

3307 by Others
(+127 from Friday and +221 from last Monday and +905 in four weeks)

9954 total
(+186 from Friday and +380 from last Monday and +1584 in four weeks)

87 tests pending results
(-52 from Friday and +1 from last Monday and +16 in four weeks)

Air Quality

Air quality is in the upper range of green today for all elevations.

Pollen

Pollen levels are expected to be low (0.1 out of 12) with ragweed being the main culprit. Tomorrow is expected to be lower (0.3 out of 12).


Weather Extremes for Macon County for November 9th

Highest Temperature 78°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station in 2005
Lowest Temperature 15°F in Franklin in 1953
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 3.17 inches in Highlands in 1966 Greatest One-Day Snowfall 1.0 inches in Highlands in 1913

TROPICAL WEATHER
(The North Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to Nov 30th)



Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan (video recorded yesterday)

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Eta, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and on newly formed Subtropical Storm Theta, located over the eastern Atlantic.

1. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This wave is expected to move westward into more conducive environmental conditions, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend when the wave reaches the central or western Caribbean Sea.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

There hasn't been a lot of change to the cloud pattern of Eta overnight, with the center apparently located on the northwestern side of a small central dense overcast. Scatterometer data from earlier indicated 35-40 kt winds, and with the typical undersampling from that instrument, along with consensus 45-kt estimates from TAFB/SAB, so Eta's initial wind speed is kept at 45 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the storm this morning.

Eta is forecast to be in a low-to-moderate shear environment over warm SSTs for the next couple of days. Gradual strengthening is expected through early Thursday, with the main restrictive factor being nearby dry air. After that time, increasing shear and drier mid-level air are likely to cause Eta to weaken. The rate of this weakening is pretty uncertain, and a lot depends on how much Eta can re-intensify over the next couple of days. The new forecast is similar to the previous one, which is quite close to the consensus guidance.

The storm has basically become stationary overnight. Eta should drift to north today due to steering flow changes with a nearby upper-level low losing influence while ridging east of Florida builds southward. A slow northward track is then anticipated for a couple of days over the east-central Gulf of Mexico in this flow pattern. Beyond that time, model guidance is in rather poor agreement, ranging from a stronger system moving faster to the northeast due to broad troughing over the south-central United States, to a weaker tropical cyclone getting caught under a narrow ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and turning west-southwestward. Since the new forecast expects Eta to be weakening, the NHC forecast will be west of the consensus and west of the previous track. I have little confidence in the long-range track forecast due to its seeming dependence on the intensity, and the wide spread in the guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and South Florida today and tonight. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for western Cuba.

2. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should continue to monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 22.9N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 23.1N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 24.0N 85.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 25.0N 85.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 26.0N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 26.8N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 27.3N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 28.8N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 30.0N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH



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Published at 5:15am Tuesday, November 10, 2020