Tropical Update: Hurricane Ike Batters Cuba

Hurricane Ike has been downgraded to a Category One Storm due to interaction with the island nation of Cuba, and should be in open water again by Wednesday. Current forecast models show the storm heading to southern Texas. As always, please refer to the National Hurricane Center for up-to-date information on this, or any other tropical storm.

Here are the 5AM graphics and NHC Advisory for Ike:

Graphic Courtesy of National Hurricane Center


Graphic Courtesy Skeetobite Weather



AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HAVANA CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...IKE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND
SOUTH COAST OF HAVANA PROVINCE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
THEN MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IKE MOVES OVER WESTERN CUBA
TODAY. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WHEN IKE
REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM. THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AT CASABLANCA
HAVANA RECENTLY MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 75 MPH...120 KM/HR. KEY
WEST RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 54 MPH...87 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 965
MB...28.50 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...22.0 N...82.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA