Tropical Update: Ike Finishes Cuba, Drifts West

Hurricane Ike has crossed the Pinar del Rio, and is leaving Cuba behind as it continues on a westward track that will put it on the Gulf Coast sometime Friday, probably in Central Texas. The intensity models are varied, with a range between Ike hitting the shore between a Category One and Three, with about half forecasting Category Two or greater strength. Friday will be an interesting day for Texans as those who are in the storm path may be ordered to evacuate.

Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for accurate and up-to-date information.



Here is an interesting image of Ike in Infrared:

Image Courtesy NOAA Satellite Services Division


And here are the standard 5 Day Cone and the Spaghetti Models...all seem to agree that Texas is the place where Ike will come ashore:



Graphic Courtesy National Hurricane Center




Graphic Courtesy Skeetobite Weather

And here is the 5 AM Forecast for Hurricane Ike:

000
WTNT44 KNHC 100848
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. AN AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE
CENTER AND THERE ARE NUMEROUS OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. IKE
CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS PRODUCING TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERMOST
FLORIDA KEYS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
SAMPLING THE HURRICANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 963 MB AND
SFMR WINDS OF 73 KNOTS. THE MAXIMIUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SO FAR IS 81
KNOTS. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UP TO 75
KNOTS. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IKE HAS BEGUN TO RECOVER FROM THE
MANY HOURS OF INTERACTION WITH LAND. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD
CONTINUE AS IKE MOVES OVER A COUPLE OF WARM EDDIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOOP CURRENT AND MOVES WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE BASED ON A BLEND BETWEEN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL
HURRICANE MODELS. HOWEVER...THE INTENISITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN
AND IKE COULD END UP BEING A CATEGORY HIGHER OR LOWER THAN
FORECAST.

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IKE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD AND EXPAND WESTWARD FORCING IKE TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT TREE DAYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN WILL OCCUR AFTER THE
CYCLONE IS ALREADY INLAND. I HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 24 TO 48
HOUR FORECAST TRACK SINCE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.
THEREAFTER...THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT SO HIGH BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE
MORE SPREAD OUT...BUT THEY ALL BRING THE HURRICANE ASHORE ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 23.5N 84.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 24.0N 86.0W 80 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 24.7N 87.7W 90 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 25.2N 89.7W 100 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 25.8N 92.0W 105 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 27.5N 96.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 31.5N 98.0W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/0600Z 34.5N 97.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA