PRESS RELEASE
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the third quarter of 2008, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.8 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter "advance" estimates are based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3). The third-quarter "preliminary" estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be released on November 25, 2008.
The decrease in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), residential fixed investment, and equipment and software that were largely offset by positive contributions from federal government spending, exports, private inventory investment, nonresidential structures, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
Most of the major components contributed to the downturn in real GDP growth in the third quarter. The largest contributors were a sharp downturn in PCE for nondurable goods, a smaller decrease in imports, a larger decrease in PCE for durable goods, and a deceleration in exports. Notable offsets were an upturn in inventory investment and an acceleration in federal government spending.
Final sales of computers contributed 0.06 percentage point to the third-quarter change in real GDP after contributing 0.17 percentage point to the second-quarter change. Motor vehicle output contributed 0.09 percentage point to the third-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 1.01 percentage points from the second-quarter change.
Source: Bureau of Economic Statistics
Hat Tip: Yahoo! News--Stocks Advance After GDP Report
Well, this is surprising, with all the gloom and doom about the housing bubble and the resulting turmoil in the financial markets have only managed to drag it down to a -0.3% contraction instead of a steeper drop.
Now, if we get another contraction next quarter, we will officially be in a recession, that is...unless these figures aren't revised upward.
Here is my post upon the release of the second quarter data.
Here is data from the past year and change:
2008 3Q......-0.3%
2008 2Q......+3.3%
2008 1Q......+0.9%
2007 4Q......-0.2%
2007 3Q......+4.9%
2007 2Q......+3.8%
Here are the historical figures, the first column being the year and quarter, the second column being the GDP in current dollars, and the third column being in constant 2000 dollars.
| Yr&Qtr 1992q3 | $ pres. 6,380.5 | $2000 7,369.5 | |
| 1992q4 | 6,484.3 | 7,450.7 | |
| 1993q1 | 6,542.7 | 7,459.7 | |
| 1993q2 | 6,612.1 | 7,497.5 | |
| 1993q3 | 6,674.6 | 7,536.0 | |
| 1993q4 | 6,800.2 | 7,637.4 | |
| 1994q1 | 6,911.0 | 7,715.1 | |
| 1994q2 | 7,030.6 | 7,815.7 | |
| 1994q3 | 7,115.1 | 7,859.5 | |
| 1994q4 | 7,232.2 | 7,951.6 | |
| 1995q1 | 7,298.3 | 7,973.7 | |
| 1995q2 | 7,337.7 | 7,988.0 | |
| 1995q3 | 7,432.1 | 8,053.1 | |
| 1995q4 | 7,522.5 | 8,112.0 | |
| 1996q1 | 7,624.1 | 8,169.2 | |
| 1996q2 | 7,776.6 | 8,303.1 | |
| 1996q3 | 7,866.2 | 8,372.7 | |
| 1996q4 | 8,000.4 | 8,470.6 | |
| 1997q1 | 8,113.8 | 8,536.1 | |
| 1997q2 | 8,250.4 | 8,665.8 | |
| 1997q3 | 8,381.9 | 8,773.7 | |
| 1997q4 | 8,471.2 | 8,838.4 | |
| 1998q1 | 8,586.7 | 8,936.2 | |
| 1998q2 | 8,657.9 | 8,995.3 | |
| 1998q3 | 8,789.5 | 9,098.9 | |
| 1998q4 | 8,953.8 | 9,237.1 | |
| 1999q1 | 9,066.6 | 9,315.5 | |
| 1999q2 | 9,174.1 | 9,392.6 | |
| 1999q3 | 9,313.5 | 9,502.2 | |
| 1999q4 | 9,519.5 | 9,671.1 | |
| 2000q1 | 9,629.4 | 9,695.6 | |
| 2000q2 | 9,822.8 | 9,847.9 | |
| 2000q3 | 9,862.1 | 9,836.6 | |
| 2000q4 | 9,953.6 | 9,887.7 | |
| 2001q1 | 10,021.5 | 9,875.6 | |
| 2001q2 | 10,128.9 | 9,905.9 | |
| 2001q3 | 10,135.1 | 9,871.1 | |
| 2001q4 | 10,226.3 | 9,910.0 | |
| 2002q1 | 10,333.3 | 9,977.3 | |
| 2002q2 | 10,426.6 | 10,031.6 | |
| 2002q3 | 10,527.4 | 10,090.7 | |
| 2002q4 | 10,591.1 | 10,095.8 | |
| 2003q1 | 10,705.6 | 10,126.0 | |
| 2003q2 | 10,831.8 | 10,212.7 | |
| 2003q3 | 11,086.1 | 10,398.7 | |
| 2003q4 | 11,219.5 | 10,467.0 | |
| 2004q1 | 11,405.5 | 10,543.6 | |
| 2004q2 | 11,610.3 | 10,634.2 | |
| 2004q3 | 11,779.4 | 10,728.7 | |
| 2004q4 | 11,948.5 | 10,796.4 | |
| 2005q1 | 12,155.4 | 10,875.8 | |
| 2005q2 | 12,297.5 | 10,946.1 | |
| 2005q3 | 12,538.2 | 11,050.0 | |
| 2005q4 | 12,696.4 | 11,086.1 | |
| 2006q1 | 12,959.6 | 11,217.3 | |
| 2006q2 | 13,134.1 | 11,291.7 | |
| 2006q3 | 13,249.6 | 11,314.1 | |
| 2006q4 | 13,370.1 | 11,356.4 | |
| 2007q1 | 13,510.9 | 11,357.8 | |
| 2007q2 | 13,737.5 | 11,491.4 | |
| 2007q3 | 13,950.6 | 11,625.7 | |
| 2007q4 | 14,031.2 | 11,620.7 | |
| 2008q1 | 14,150.8 | 11,646.0 | |
| 2008q2 | 14,294.5 | 11,727.4 | |
| 2008q3 | 14,429.2 | 11,720.0 |
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