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I am working on the template of this blog today in order to chase down some problems that have developed with my template and widgets.

Friday, December 24, 2010

Christmas Winter Storm Headed for WNC Region
Multiple Updates Included

**12.26** Here is Version 5.0 of the NWS Storm Total Snow Depth
This puts me firmly in the 12" range!!!


The FIFTH Snow Depth Forecast on the 2010 Christmas Storm 
Graphic Courtesy of the Greenville Office of the National Weather Service


**9.59am** New Snow Forecast Map from the National Weather Service! 



The FOURTH Snow Depth Forecast on the 2010 Christmas Storm 
Graphic Courtesy of the Greenville Office of the National Weather Service






**5.23am** This Storm is now in the dangerous category. 


The following discussion mentions a ratio of 12:1 for the snow based on QPFs of 0.5 to 0.75 liquid equiv. I think that 20:1 or greater is m ore likely for a large part of the region that would yield 10 inches for the the 0.5 and 15 inches for the 0.75 regions. 


 Here is a map of the latest GFS run of the QPF Numbers





Latest QPF Numbers from NOAA GFS Model Run 
Graphic Courtesy NOAA



Here is a portion of the latest Area Forecast Discussion from the GSP Office of the NWS: 



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
519 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF 
OF MEXICO TODAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TURNS NORTHEAST ALONG 
THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY SUNDAY AND CONTINUES TO THE NEW ENGLAND 
COAST EARLY MONDAY. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE VEERED DRAMATICALLY BACK INTO THE HEAVY 
SNOW CAMP FOR THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. 

A NRN STREAM STREAM SHORT WAVE IS DIGGING MORE THAN THE MODELS HAD 
ORIGINALLY PREDICTED. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS 
INDICATED BY THE INCREASING DARK BAND ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER 
THE SRN PLAINS. THIS IS RESULTING IS DOWNSTREAM UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 
QG FORCING. A BAND OF 600 MB FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDS ACROSS TN AND 
INTO WRN NC. THIS BAND IS MOST CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PCPN OVER 
SRN TN. THE FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH 18 
UTC...WHICH MATCHES THE INCREASING PCPN TREND. THE LATEST GFS AND 
ECMWF NOW HAVE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN OVER 
THE MTNS OF NC/SC/GA AND THE NC FOOTHILLS THROUGH 00 UTC TODAY. WITH 
A SNOW RATIO OF 12:1...THIS WOULD YIELD OVER 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN 
SPOTS. WE/VE BEEN PLAYING CATCHUP WITH THIS EVENT...AND THE 6 INCH 
TOTALS I HAVE IN THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS TODAY WILL PROBABLY 
NEED TO BE BUMPED UP ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES AT LEAST. THIS AMOUNT OF 
SNOW IS LIKELY TO DOWN TREES...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES AND WILL MAKE 
CHRISTMAS TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE MTNS BY LATER IN 
THE MORNING....WITH THE NC FOOTHILLS EXPERIENCING SIMILAR CONDITIONS 
LATER IN THE DAY. IN SHORT...THIS IS GOING TO BE A SIGNIFICANT AND 
DANGEROUS WINTER STORM FOR THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS TODAY.

THEN THERE IS PART TWO. A POTENT SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS 
ONLY INDIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVY SNOW TODAY...WILL BE 
PICKED UP BY THE NRN STREAM WAVE. AS THE NRN STREAM WAVE IS SLOWER 
AND DEEPER...IT LOOKS TO PHASE MORE WITH THE SRN STREAM ENERGY THAN 
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. AS STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE 
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...A PIVOTING BAND OF SNOW IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FA. BOTH NAM AND 
GFS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A GOOD AREA OF NEGATIVE EPV CROSSING THE 
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD 0600 UTC. AS THIS HAPPENS...A PERIOD 
OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE. FOR NOW I/M JUST GOING WITH 2 TO 4 
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH IS STILL ENOUGH TO WARRANT A 
WINTER STORM WARNING UP THE I-85 AND I-77 CORRIDORS. HOWEVER...IF 
THIS WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT AND PHASING CONTINUES...THEN HEAVIER SNOW 
IS VERY POSSIBLE.

THIS IS SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM 
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG UP TO THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREAS. IT WILL TAKE 
SOME TIME FOR THE LOWEST LEVELS TO COOL TODAY AND FOR ALL SNOW TO 
FALL ACROSS THESE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS SECONDARY AREA OF FORCING 
WITH THE SRN STREAM WAVE IS LIKELY TO REINVIGORATE THE PCPN THIS 
EVENING...RESULTING IN A RAPID TRANSITION TO HEAVY SNOW WHERE THERE 
WAS A MIX BEFORE. STILL...I THINK THE URBAN CORRIDOR WILL CHANGE 
OVER IN THE 19 TO 20 UTC TIME FRAME...WHICH IS PLENTY OF TIME TO 
WATCH THE SNOW FALL AND EXPERIENCE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE 
PIEDMONT.

&&



**4.47am** The NWS has upgraded the entire region to a Winter Storm Warning, and they've updated their maps to match my earlier prediction of a heavier event... 









The THIRD Snow Depth Forecast on the 2010 Christmas Storm Courtesy of the Greenville Office of the National Weather Service



Please continue to follow this snow closely and keep checking for further updates on the National Weather Service website [Storm Totals] or your favorite TV or Radio Station.


Here is the announcement: 





Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
437 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010


...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA TODAY AND TONIGHT...


.A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO
THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFTER AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INTERACT
WITH MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER.


...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
NOON EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.


* LOCATIONS...THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES OF NORTH CAROLINA NOT
  BORDERING TENNESSEE...THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
  GEORGIA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS.


* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.


* TIMING...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
  MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.


* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES.


* IMPACTS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AND INCREASING
  SNOWFALL INTENSITY THROUGH THE MORNING...ROADS WILL RAPIDLY
  BECOME SLICK AND SNOW COVERED. TRAVEL WILL QUICKLY BECOME
  DANGEROUS. HEAVY SNOW MAY ALSO BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.


* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOWS IN THE MID TO
  UPPER 20S.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...BE SURE TO TAKE ALONG YOUR CELL
PHONE. WEAR A WARM COAT...GLOVES...AND BOOTS. KEEP A BLANKET...
FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY.


&&


$$





**Christmas Day, 2.24am** The NWS has increased the snow depth map. Here it is:










Second Snow Depth Forecast on Christmas Eve Courtesy of the Greenville Office of the National Weather Service











Initial Snow Depth Forecast on Christmas Eve Courtesy of the Greenville Office of the National Weather Service

As the above map indicates, we're gonna get a shot at a once in a lifetime event in Dixie...a White Christmas! It looks like most of the snow will fall during the day on Christmas and the day or two following...but we'll get the 1" on the ground that'll qualify it for a White Christmas on Christmas Day. 


It is my belief that we'll get more than what they are predicting and I'm stacking out a prediction of at least 5" in Franklin, NC...which is 2.4" on the above map.


Remember to keep checking the forecast on your favorite TV or Radio Station, or on the web at the National Weather Service website.


Here is the Urgent Winter Weather Message from the National Weather Service:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
256 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2010


...WINTER WEATHER TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTH GEORGIA CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH MONDAY...


.A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY. AFTER AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER.


GAZ010-017-NCZ068>071-SCZ001>010-251000-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0032.101225T1400Z-101226T0500Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...SHELBY...
LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...
GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON
256 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2010


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY NIGHT...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM
SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY NIGHT.


* LOCATIONS...THE I-85 CORRIDOR IN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...AS
WELL AS THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.


* HAZARDS...LIGHT SNOW...MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN AT TIMES.


* TIMING...MID-MORNING THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVENING.


* ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND 1 INCH.


* IMPACTS...SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP ON ELEVATED SURFACES...SUCH AS
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.


* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.


&&


$$


NCZ033-048>052-058-251000-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.A.0010.101225T2300Z-101227T2300Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE
256 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2010


...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON ABOVE 3500 FEET...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WATCH ABOVE 3500 FEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.


* LOCATIONS...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET IN THE TENNESSEE BORDER
COUNTIES OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.


* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS...AND
BITTER WIND CHILLS.


* TIMING...ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A PERIOD
OF HEAVIER NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT
AND LINGER INTO MONDAY.


* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED 8 TO 10 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS.


* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND. BLOWING SNOW COULD LOCALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.


* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS. BITTER WIND CHILLS BETWEEN ZERO
AND MINUS 10 WILL RESULT...ESPECIALLY AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY
MORNING.


* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.


&&


$$
LANE/HG


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