Mitt Romney has swept the February 28th Primaries, winning in both Michigan and Arizona. MItt Romney faced stiff competition in Michigan from Rick Santorum, who enlisted the support of Democrats to come out and vote for him, and it appears that call was well-received, both by conservative Democrats and Progressive Democrats, who see him as a much easier opponent for Barack Obama to defeat in the general election. This is a sort of a Karmic payback for the Operation Chaos of the 2008 election cycle.
Results and Exit Polling Data for Michigan
Here are some of the data from the Fox News exit polls that I feel shed some light on this primary:
Which best describes your education? | Total | Romney | Gingrich | Santorum | Paul |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
More than high school grad | 82% | 42% | 6% | 37% | 13% |
High school graduate or less | 18% | 36% | 10% | 42% | 7% |
Do you or does someone in your household belong to a labor union? | Total | Romney | Gingrich | Santorum | Paul |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes, I do | 12% | 28% | 10% | 47% | 12% |
Yes, someone else does | 9% | - | - | - | - |
Yes, I do and someone else does | 1% | - | - | - | - |
No one does | 77% | 44% | 5% | 36% | 12% |
No matter how you voted today, do you usually think of yourself as a: | Total | Romney | Gingrich | Santorum | Paul |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democrat | 9% | 18% | 3% | 53% | 17% |
Republican | 60% | 48% | 7% | 37% | 6% |
Independent or something else | 31% | 35% | 7% | 34% | 21% |
How do you feel about the Tea Party movement? | Total | Romney | Gingrich | Santorum | Paul |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Support | 52% | 42% | 8% | 41% | 7% |
Neutral | 29% | 45% | 5% | 30% | 16% |
Oppose | 17% | 35% | 5% | 39% | 15% |
Religion, combined Protestant and other Christian | Total | Romney | Gingrich | Santorum | Paul |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Protestant/Other Christian | 57% | 40% | 7% | 42% | 10% |
Catholic | 30% | 44% | 7% | 37% | 8% |
Jewish | 1% | - | - | - | - |
Something else | 5% | - | - | - | - |
None | 7% | - | - | - | - |
Which comes closest to your position? Abortion should be: | Total | Romney | Gingrich | Santorum | Paul |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Legal | 36% | 48% | 6% | 24% | 18% |
Illegal | 59% | 38% | 6% | 47% | 8% |
Which ONE of these candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted today? (CHECK ONLY ONE) | Total | Romney | Gingrich | Santorum | Paul |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Can defeat Barack Obama | 32% | 61% | 8% | 24% | 4% |
Is a true conservative | 16% | 18% | 6% | 58% | 15% |
Has strong moral character | 24% | 17% | 2% | 59% | 20% |
Has the right experience | 22% | 57% | 12% | 16% | 9% |
Which best describes your vote today? | Total | Romney | Gingrich | Santorum | Paul |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
I strongly favor my candidate | 45% | 46% | 7% | 32% | 13% |
I like my candidate but with reservations | 38% | 44% | 4% | 40% | 10% |
I dislike the other candidates | 16% | 22% | 9% | 51% | 14% |
If I post any more of the fascinating data, I may be in violation of fair use, so I'll point you once again to the exit poll.
Results and Exit Polling Data for Arizona
Here are the results of the Fox News exit polls. I have included the questions and results I feel are most interesting.
Do you work full-time for pay? | Total | Romney | Gingrich | Santorum | Paul |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 55% | 50% | 14% | 25% | 10% |
No | 45% | 49% | 19% | 25% | 6% |
No matter how you voted today, do you usually think of yourself as a: | Total | Romney | Gingrich | Santorum | Paul |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democrat | 3% | - | - | - | - |
Republican | 75% | 51% | 16% | 28% | 6% |
Independent or something else | 23% | 35% | 22% | 22% | 18% |
How do you feel about the Tea Party movement? | Total | Romney | Gingrich | Santorum | Paul |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Support | 64% | 43% | 19% | 31% | 6% |
Neutral | 24% | 54% | 14% | 19% | 10% |
Oppose | 10% | 55% | 11% | 6% | 19% |
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Which comes closest to your position? Abortion should be: | Total | Romney | Gingrich | Santorum | Paul |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Legal | 36% | 52% | 16% | 21% | 9% |
Illegal | 57% | 50% | 14% | 28% | 6% |
Should most illegal immigrants working in the United States be: | Total | Romney | Gingrich | Santorum | Paul |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Offered a chance to apply for citizenship | 34% | 53% | 16% | 19% | 9% |
Allowed to stay as temporary workers | 28% | 50% | 18% | 27% | 4% |
Deported to the country they came from | 34% | 47% | 15% | 28% | 10% |
Regardless of how you voted today, which ONE of these candidates do you think would be most likely to defeat Barack Obama in November? (CHECK ONLY ONE) | Total | Romney | Gingrich | Santorum | Paul |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gingrich | 13% | 13% | 64% | 20% | 2% |
Paul | 4% | - | - | - | - |
Romney | 57% | 78% | 7% | 10% | 5% |
Santorum | 18% | 5% | 7% | 83% | 4% |
Is your opinion of John McCain: | Total | Romney | Gingrich | Santorum | Paul |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Favorable | 53% | 50% | 15% | 25% | 10% |
Unfavorable | 40% | 37% | 21% | 30% | 7% |
Speechifying
Mitt Romney's Victory Speech
Rick Santorum finishded second in both states, and this is what he had to say about that
Ron Paul remarks on his finishes in Arizona and Michigan after being introduced by his son, US Senator Rand Paul
This is what Newt Gingfrich said about the night after being introduced by his wife, Callista Gingrich
My Thoughts
I still view Mitt Romney as inevitable, especially as long as the "true" conservative voting bloc is split between Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich and by looking at the exit polling data. All Mitt Romney has to do to win any state (and eventually the nomination) is for the vote total between him and Ron Paul exceed 50%.
He continues to out raise his opponents in donations and is the only one with a national infrastructure capable of competing with Barack Obama in the general election in the fall. However, the longer the primary drags on, the less likely it is that the nominee will win in November. I think that if the primary still hasn't produced a clear winner by May, then Obama will very likely win the 2012 election and serve a second term.
Next Up on the Primary Schedule
The Washington State Caucuses are on Saturday, March 3rd and Super Tuesday is (of course) Tuesday, March 6th. 11 States will hold primaries and caucuses. They are: Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, Ohio, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and Vermont.
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