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Monday, February 20, 2012

Newt Calls For Mitt to Drop Out of Race

Newt Gingrich is quickly becoming a laugh track candidate. By that I mean when he opens his mouth to speak, you expect to hear a laugh track in the background because no serious person (or at least one in full control of his mental faculties)would say the things he does.

His latest outburst is a statement that Mitt Romney should drop out of the Republican nomination if he doesn't win Michigan.

“If he loses his home state, I don’t see what he says the next morning to his donors to stay in the race,” Mr. Gingrich told Fox News Sunday.

If a person hasn't been paying attention to this primary race this cycle, he or she might not know that Newt has won only one state out of nine and Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum have each won four states. If anyone should go, it is Newt Gingrich.

GOP Delegates Awarded So Far:

Candidate States Won Total Delegates Bound Unbound
Mitt Romney NH, FL, NV, ME 99 73 26
Rick Santorum IA,MO,CO,MN 47 3 44
Newt Gingrich SC 32 29 4
Ron Paul None 20 8 12

So, you can see how things are currently in the race as far as the delegate count goes. Some of the delegates that are unbound are free to choose another candidate to support after the first ballot is cast at the national convention, other states allow their delegates to choose whomever they wish despite who has won the support of voters in their state. Typically, delegates in caucus states may choose who they will support. In years past, they've almost always gone for who ever holds the lead in the delegate count at the national convention.

RNC Delegate Math

The real reason the primary race is dragging out so long this year is that the RNC (in their very limited wisdom) decided it would be best if the primary lasted until May so the candidates could dig up dirt on each other and alienate the various factions of the Republican party in the process.

On August 6, 2010, the Republican National Committee (RNC) adopted new rules for the timing of elections, with 103 votes in favor out of 144.[source] Under this plan, elections for delegates to the national convention were to be divided into three periods:[source]

  • February 1 – March 5, 2012: Contests of traditional early states Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina,
  • March 6–31, 2012: Contests that proportionally allocate delegates,
  • April 1, 2012, and onward: All other contests including winner-take-all elections.
Several states, most notably Florida, scheduled their contests earlier than prescribed. This pressured every traditional early state except Nevada to push back their contest into January. As a result of their violation of RNC rules, these states were penalized with a loss of half their delegates, including voting right for RNC delegates. Despite having early caucuses, Iowa, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri were not automatically penalized, because their contests do not bind national delegates until after the prescribed time period for the early voting states. 

If Gingrich really was interested in defeating Romney, he'd be the one to drop out of the race instead. The only thing that is keeping him afloat is a billionaire sugar daddy named Sheldon Adelson. [$21 million so far]

The Real Clear Politics polling average has shown that numerous ABR (Anyone But Romney) candidates have enjoyed a brief time as a bubble candidate before they are vetted in this drawn out primary season and dropped as unelectable in comparison to Romney by the conventional wisdom of the polls.

More Information:

National Journal: Gingrich Pushes Santorum to Drop Out

Washington Times: Gingrich Says Romney Should Drop Out

Real Clear Politics: GOP Delegate Count (retrieved Feb 20, 2012)

ABC News: Delegate Apocalypse

Wikipedia: The 2012 Republican Primaries

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