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Sunday, April 10, 2011

Public Weather Outlook for 04-10-2011 from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center




This is a new series I'll be posting daily during the thunderstorm season this year. I'll include the videos for as long as the SPC continues to produce them. When Hurricane Season cranks up, I'll add a section for that as well.




It appears that we are mostly out of it for today in western North Carolina.

The text of today's severe weather outlook can be found at the SPC website, or below:


 SPC AC 101123
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0623 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
   
   VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
   PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHEAST IA...NORTHWEST IL...MUCH OF
   WI...AND WESTERN UPPER MI...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
   INTO CENTRAL TX...
   
   ...A LOCALIZED OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS
   POSSIBLE LATER TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
   WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...
   
   MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
   WESTERN UNITED STATES.  A 90-100 KNOT MID/UPPER LEVEL JET IS MOVING
   ACROSS NM AND WILL NOSE INTO THE MIDWEST STATES THIS AFTERNOON. 
   RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE...WITH A DEEP LOW TRACKING
   FROM NORTHWEST IA INTO WESTERN UPPER MI.  STRONG AND INCREASING
   SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW WILL DRAW
   60S DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD AND YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS
   FAR NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORES
   OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
   POSE THE GREATEST THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER LATER
   TODAY...INCLUDING THE RISK OF DAMAGING TORNADOES.
   
   CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MORNING CONVECTION OVER MN/WI WILL
   RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD...WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE DEVELOPING ACROSS
   THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  A RATHER STRONG CAPPING
   INVERSION WILL SUPPRESS NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL MID-LATE
   AFTERNOON AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WEAKENS THE CAP NEAR
   THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN MN/NORTHEAST IA.  STORMS
   IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH THE
   THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.  CONVECTION SHOULD RACE
   NORTHEASTWARD AT OVER 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA DURING
   THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
   EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 250-400 MS/S2 AND VERY STRONG DEEP
   LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE COMBINATION OF WEAKENING
   CAP...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS...AND ENHANCED SHEAR NEAR AND JUST
   SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL POSE A RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES. 
   INTENSE ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN UPPER MI BEFORE
   ENCOUNTERING A MORE STABLE AIR MASS...WHERE WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
   
   VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS LEND DOUBT REGARDING COVERAGE OF
   THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT.  IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AT
   LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE/SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AS FAR SOUTH
   AS EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL.  HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT VEERED LOW LEVEL
   FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO DECREASE THE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES
   COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER NORTH OVER WI.
   
   LATER THIS EVENING...MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM MO INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION...AND
   EVENTUALLY INTO TX OVERNIGHT.  STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND MODERATE
   INSTABILITY WILL HELP TO PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
   IN THESE STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
   
   ..HART/GARNER.. 04/10/2011


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