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Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Public Weather Outlook for 04-19-2011 from the SPC


The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has started an experimental product where they issue a video briefing in the mornings of days with a Moderate or High risk of severe weather. I have taken the liberty of uploading the videos to You Tube and have encouraged the SPC to do the same thing...


Check out what Matthew East has to say about the weather. We are fortunate to have someone in our area that takes the time to put out a short weather briefing video on the Internet.





Please visit the Storm Prediction Center for up to date information on their products, which...as tax-payer funded projects, are available in the public domain.


Here is the text of today's Public Weather Outlook, followed by the SPC Convective Outlook...


PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0437 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011
   
   ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE OZARKS...THE
   LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...AND THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
   LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL FROM THE
   OZARKS INTO PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS LATER TODAY
   THROUGH TONIGHT.
   
   THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
   
          NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
          CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
          CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
          WESTERN AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
          SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI
          WESTERN OHIO
          EASTERN OKLAHOMA
          NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
   
   ELSEWHERE...SURROUNDING THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK...SEVERE STORMS
   ALSO MAY OCCUR FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
   NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
   
   A POTENT JET STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
   CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...BEFORE TURNING
   NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS TONIGHT
   AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.  AT THE SAME TIME...AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
   AND COLD FRONT WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS MORNING TO
   NORTHERN OHIO BY DAWN WEDNESDAY.
   
   AHEAD OF THE LOW...A BROAD CURRENT OF WARM...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALREADY
   IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES WILL STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD
   MOISTURE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BENEATH FAST
   SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAM WINDS. 
   
   AS THE JET STREAM IMPULSE AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE EASTWARD...AND AS
   DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES THE REGION...POWERFUL
   THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND
   AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. 
   
   CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELL
   STORMS WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS.  WITH
   TIME...HOWEVER...THE STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO EXTENSIVE BAND OR INTO
   SEVERAL LARGE CLUSTERS.  THESE COULD PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD WIND
   DAMAGE...IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUING RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
   HAIL...THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
   
   STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
   SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
   WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
   WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
   TODAY.
   
   ..CORFIDI.. 04/19/2011
   








SPC AC 191245
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0745 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011
   
   VALID 191300Z - 201200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK AND THE OZARKS
   NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VLY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
   FROM NE TX TO THE LWR GRT LKS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN RCKYS WILL MOVE E ACROSS
   THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS TODAY...BEFORE TURNING ENE ACROSS THE MID MS AND
   OH VLYS TONIGHT/EARLY WED.  ATTENDANT SFC LOW NOW OVER SE KS SHOULD
   TRACK ENE TO NEAR KSTL THIS EVE...AND TO LK ERIE BY 12Z WED AS
   TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES STEADILY S ACROSS THE PLNS...AND E/SE
   ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MS VLY.  THE COLD FRONT...AND TO A SOMEWHAT
   LESSER EXTENT...THE WARM/QSTNRY FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THE
   LOW...WILL SERVE TO FOCUS SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY LATE TODAY
   THROUGH EARLY WED.
   
   ...ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLNS AND THE OZARKS NORTHEAST INTO THE OH
   VLY AND LWR GRT LKS...
   
   SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS FORECAST
   PERIOD...WITH WIDESPREAD DMGG WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW
   POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES.
   
   CLUSTERS/BANDS OF ELEVATED TSTMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
   THE DAY ALONG AND N OF WARM/QSTNRY FRONT OVER THE MID MS/OH VLYS. 
   FORMING ALONG NERN FRINGE OF EWD-EXPANDING EML...THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   YOUNGER AND/OR MORE DISCRETE UPDRAFTS.  SOME...ALBEIT
   LOW...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SFC OR NEAR-SFC-BASED STORMS ALONG
   THE SRN FRINGE OF THESE ELEVATED CLUSTERS OVER PARTS OF
   IL...IND...KY...AND PERHAPS SW OH.  IN THOSE AREAS A THREAT FOR
   LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST...IN ADDITION TO
   LARGE HAIL.  
   
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE...ASCENT WITH APPROACHING UPR
   TROUGH AND SFC HEATING EXPECTED TO OVERCOME CAP PRODUCE RAPID AND
   PERHAPS NEARLY SIMULTANEOUS STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
   AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND SFC LOW FROM ERN MO/IL SW INTO ERN OK/NE TX.
   
   THE FIRST STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER OK AND VICINITY...LIKELY WILL BE
   SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN FAVORABLY STRONG/VEERING WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT.
    THESE COULD YIELD A COUPLE TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE
   HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND.  HOWEVER...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MORE
   LINEAR STORM MODE SHOULD OCCUR BY EARLY EVE AS FRONTAL UPLIFT
   FOCUSES DEVELOPMENT AND CAPPING LIMITS STORM INITIATION IN THE
   PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.  DRIER/MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...VEERING
   LOW-LVL FLOW...AND WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF
   SWWD DEVELOPMENT INTO TX.
   
   FARTHER NE...A SOMEWHAT GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE ALONG
   WARM FRONT FROM ERN MO INTO IL/IND...WHERE LOW-LVL SHEAR SHOULD BE
   MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF SFC LOW.  HOWEVER...CINH AND FORCING
   CONSIDERATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY ALSO WILL EVOLVE INTO A
   QLCS...WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DMGG
   WIND/POSSIBLE DERECHO CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF IL/IND/KY/TN
   TONIGHT.  THIS THREAT LIKELY WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO WED MORNING AS
   BAND OF 60+ KT SWLY LLJ SWEEPS NEWD IN TANDEM WITH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
   ACROSS LWR TN AND OH RVR VLYS.  THOUGH SOME WEAKENING IN STORM
   INTENSITY MAY OCCUR EARLY WED...STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND DEGREE OF
   MOISTURE AVAILABILITY /PW OF 1.25 - 1.50 INCHES/ SUGGEST THAT AT
   LEAST A LIMITED SVR THREAT WILL PERSIST AS FAR E AS THE WRN SLOPES
   OF THE APPALACHIANS.
   
   ..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 04/19/2011



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