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Thursday, March 25, 2010

11th Congressional District Poll

3/25/2010 04:04:00 PM , , 16 comments

**7.02pm** Erika Franzi of the Asheville Tea Party and Jane Q Public blog has a screenshot of the poll results at around noon. I'm hoping that she will make that available for public inspection. While we wait on that, Here is a tool that will allow you to explore the geographic voting pattern for this poll. 



Polls Powered By MicroPoll

 Note that Dan Eichenbaum won every state. In North Carolina, he won with 39% of the vote among the 6 candidates, and he had 100% of the vote in every other state in the Union. Before I left home this morning, I posted the following tweet:


#NC11 Poll Results so far: [K West 36%][J Miller 27%][None 14%][G Newman 14%][D Eichenbaum 9%] #ConsNC http://bit.ly/d54JX7about 12 hours ago via web
Link to tweet. When Erika produces the screenshot she thoughtfully took around noon [see the first comment in the comment thread for this post if it disappears, I have a screenshot of that for archival purposes], we'll be able to see how things looked a few hours later. It will help me show that the supporters of (at least) two of the campaigns voted multiple times in the poll. The 1st time between 9am and noon, then secondly a push back in favor of one of the other candidates, and another push for the candidate who garnered many votes between 9am and noon. 

I have the IP addresses of the voters who voted more than once, and will be working to tie them to people, if that is possible.


**3.58** 534 of the 927 votes (so far) have been cast among 10 IP addresses. I'm taking screenshots to show how the vote is progressing so you can see how the multiple votes are being cast.

173.16.116.44 4
71.90.237.42 11
99.196.32.58 28
75.104.128.54 30
75.104.128.36 33
99.197.64.56 51
75.105.0.52 54
75.105.0.38 79
68.119.42.197 130
70.158.134.104 141















**2.54pm** Nearly 100 votes have been cast since I took a screen shot at 2.27pm...


Here is the updated list of IP addresses:


70.158.134.104 Hayesville (BREMC) 141 votes
68.119.42.197 Asheville 125 votes
99.197.64.56 Scottsville, Va 20 votes (Wild Blue Communications)
75.04.128.36 Scottsville, Va 15 votes 
99.196.32.58 14 Englewood, Co (again Wild Blue Comms)








**2.34pm** I've returned from Sylva and have taken a screenshot and Erika Franzi has taken one at noon and I've recorded the IP addresses of the poll participants. Three of them amassing more than 200 votes between them, and several more with more than one vote each.


70.158.134.104 New York City 141 votes (Another IP locator puts this one in Hayesville)
68.119.42.197 Asheville 99 votes
71.90.237.42 Asheville 9 votes
173.16.116.14 Sylva 4 votes


I'm still going through the list, but it seems that most of the multiple votes came from IP addresses in Buncombe County. Strange, huh?













Here is a poll to see where readers of this blog stand on the 11th Congressional District Primary. The poll will close at noon tomorrow, Friday the 26th of March 2010.



















For those of you who haven't done their homework, here is a list of the candidates (in alphabetical order) and a link to their webpage so that you can do a little research before you cast your vote: 


REPUBLICANS
Dan Eichenbaum
James Howard
Ed Krause
Jeff Miller 
Greg Newman 
Kenny West 




DEMOCRATS
Heath Shuler 
Aixa Wilson 



16 comments :

Hey Bobby,

I noticed that after noon today (when the poll had closed) Dan had a score of 70%.

I got a screen shot of it with a time stamp.

Now his score is lower.

What's up with the numbers changing after the poll has closed? Is this one of those "funny polls" you like to write about?

Erika

According to his Twitter Account, he is in Sylva teaching a class. http://twitter.com/ThunderPig/status/11090429721

And according to the post, the poll closed at noon.

I wasn't near a computer at noon. Could you post the info re the votes at noon?

I've got info for previous hours with data on who got how many votes and would like to see how many people voted between 9 and noon. Less than one hundred votes had occurred the previous 18 hours of the poll.

Right now, I'm showing 736 votes from less than 120 IP Adresses.

Why don't you just give it up. You're not even entertaining any more.

@Tim:

Your IP address is 74.167.177.# (BellSouth.net) and you did not cast multiple votes. At least you're honest. So much for the ten people (IP addresses) that cast nearly 500 votes, huh?

It's also funny that under a hundred people had participated in the poll by 9am today, then someone posted a call for people to help Dr Dan on an online poll at 9.06am and the floodgates opened. Dr Dan went from 9% to over 70% (according to Erika). By the time I saw the poll (after 2pm), the number was around 56%.

I'd say that supporters of at least two candidates have been casting more than one vote per IP address.

That's the main difference between online polls and carpooling to events to try to flood the poll results. I wasn't at any of the events where polls were taken, but at least with this poll, I can identify the locations of where the "funny votes" were cast from.

I've posted the IPs for the world to see. I'm hoping that Erika is forthcoming with the screenshot she took at noon, and am glad that she was interested enough in the poll to go to such measures.

I am not in this business to entertain, Tim. Are you?

@Erika:

I'm interested in seeing how the numbers looked at noon. Could you post them somewhere? TwitPic is a good place (http://twitpic.com/user/JayneQPublic) That way, I could link to it when I get my post ready about this poll.

It looks like supporters of more than one candidate were playing dirty with the poll.

Thanks in advance. (I am going to try to connect names with the IP addresses that cast more than 10 times each).

@Erika (of the Asheville Tea Party and Jane Q Public):

I'm still waiting on the screenshot you spoke of earlier.

It will prove instrumental in showing how supporters for at least two of the candidates cast multiple votes in this poll. Or are you interested in being a part of the investigation, no matter where it leads?

There are many polls like this running at different websites.

Just to see what was going on here at TB's blog, I tried to vote again and could not. After that, I received many other links to polls that were identical to the TP poll. Some polls had Dr. Dan at 36% and others were as high as 67%.

If anyone in the Dr. Dan camp is doing multiple voting on this site, please stop this. Dr. Dan can win almost any poll in this district without cheating. Doing this is a disservice to our candidate and does not help our campaign.

Gary M. Shoemaker

I cleared my cache and found I could vote again. That's probably what was happening.

Gary is right, it does Dr Dan no good to have people cheating. There will be bad blood like there was in 2008 when Dr Mumpower pissed off everyone. We can't let that happen again.

JR in Franklin

Thanks, JR for explaining how this can be done.

I don't know who is doing this, but I will make it known that this campaign does not condone this type of activity.

Gary

Sorry for the delay. Haven't been back here 'til now.

Here's the poll at 1:07.
http://twitpic.com/1b9uhg

(Bobby, I said I shot the screen "after noon" not at noon.)

Here's the poll at 1:54
http://twitpic.com/1b9uar

I assume you can check my IP address and see that I only voted once as well.

Erika

@ Bobby

Wow. I just read that obnoxious insinuation you made.

I can't believe you just accused me of wanting to suppress something from your your "investigation" just because I hadn't been back to your trifling blog in half a day.

Good luck with the big case, Dick Tracy.

Only 40% in NC support Dr Dan right now. It seems like all his support is coming from other states.

Didn't Shuler's support come from other states?

@Mark and Bobby:

Did I miss something? The poll was supposed to close at noon yesterday.
Of what value is it to continue with looking at the numbers that came in after noon yesterday?

I can't believe how badly done and completely illegitimate this poll has been, especially given the fact that you, Bobby, occupied the better part of your week a while back criticizing our poll that had none of these issues.

Thanks for showing us how it's supposed to be done. It has been quite entertaining.

Perhaps Bill Fishburne will now do an article on your superior polling methods. That would be a treat.

By the way, do you intend to leave this poll open until Jake Howard is the winner?

I believe the poll became bogus after Eichenbaum supporters began to vote en masse from a few Ip locations before noon. As TP is so fond of pointing out, Have you no reading comprehension?

I've heard several people complain about Eichenbaum Supporters traveling en masse to other counties just to stack the results of straw polls. Our county did not have a straw poll due to such concerns brought up in the executive committee of such behavior.

I expect that Dr Dan Eichenbaum will be like Dr Ron Paul...performing well in polls, but not so well when it came time for people to cast a ballot. One person casting one ballot each instead of dozens as TP has shown in this post. No wonder you people want to have a ballot where you can give multiple points to candidates you support, and fewer to candidates you dont support. It is a way of casting more than one vote in a poll.

I'm printing off several copies of it and will show it around at work on Monday. I hope you don't mind being laughed at.

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