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Thursday, May 13, 2010

Chance of Severe Weather for Carolinas on Friday

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Carolinas under slight risk of severe weather on Friday, so be careful when planning outdoor activities and keep aware of the developing weather. If the models hold up, it looks like upstate South Carolina (with a few pulse-type thunderstorms) and the Piedmont (with convection thunderstorms) could be getting most of the action. If we get anything in the mountains, it'll probably be in the evening hours. 

The statement from the Storm Prediction Center...



...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRI AFTN AND EVE ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE TN VALLEY/CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...AND CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS
   INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRI AFTN AND EVE ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT REMNANTS OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER
   LOW/TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z
   FRIDAY.  THE SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO TURN EASTWARD...AND GRADUALLY
   SOUTHEASTWARD...ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST LATE
   FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITHIN A CONFLUENT REGIME TO THE WEST AND
   SOUTH OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  AS THIS
   OCCURS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO FLATTEN ACROSS THE
   LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE THE
   HIGH CENTER WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD...AWAY FROM SOUTH ATLANTIC
   COASTAL AREAS.





 ...OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS EASTWARD TO MID ATLANTIC COAST...
   THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION...WHICH
   COULD BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...AND AREAS
   TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  THIS MAY REMAIN
   SOUTH OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...AT LEAST
   THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT
   INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
   HOURS.  ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES...30-50 KT
   500 MB FLOW WILL PROBABLY ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE
   OF MIXED LAYER CAPE GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG.  A FEW
   SEVERE STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE RISK FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.


As usual, pay attention to the National Weather Service or your favorite mind-numbing radio or TV station for weather alerts as this thing develops...

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