Tropical Update: Hurricane Gustav and TS Hanna

This is your Saturday morning huricane tracking website update:

Image Courtesy National Hurricane Center

FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE
SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE EXTREMELY WARM AND DEEP WATERS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS...ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR GUSTAV. IN ADDITION...SINCE
THE LOOP CURRENT IS SOUTH OF ITS TYPICAL LOCATION...THE HURRICANE
WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS THAT ARE NOT NEARLY AS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING AS THEY COULD BE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL HOPEFULLY
WEAKEN THE STORM PRIOR TO U.S. LANDFALL. HOWEVER...GUSTAV IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE AND THE NHC FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SHOW GUSTAV AS A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO NORTHERN FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
THE HURRICANE TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL
LEFTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO
EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET/HWRF...WHICH TURN THE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE.
THESE TWO MODELS ARE SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...WHICH ALLOWS A RIDGE TO FORM OVER TEXAS TO TURN THE
STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. GUSTAV
WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LONGER-TERM...WHICH
COULD CAUSE A CONSIDERABLE FLOODING THREAT OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS.

Image Courtesy National Hurricane Center


Image Courtesy Skeetobite Weather
The computer models show some weird divergence in the predicted path of Tropical Storm Hanna, as they continue to show the storm under the weakening influence of an upper level Low for the next 12 to 48 hours, which will be replaced by a High that will steer it westward, and may slow it down some.

All eyes will be on Hurricane Gustav for the next few days as it continues to threaten the gulf coast area in the middle of the coming week.

As always, refer to the National Hurricane Center for more updated information.

As Gustav comes closer to shore, I will begin posting my hurricane protocol for the areas forecast to be affected by the storm that will allow you to monitor local sources of data about the storm. For now, I will leave you some shortwave frequencies of regional National Guard units posted on the informative Milcom Monitoring Post, those of us with shortwave radios will be tuning in to listen to the radio traffic:

Alabama National Guard
State HQ ALE Address: A040LN
4724.5 4924.5 8047.0 8622.0 9141.5 10233.5 12087.0 13722.0 14653.0 16338.5 20906.0 kHz

Alabama NG 131 AVN
3345.0 4780.0 4961.5 5065.0 5118.0 5778.5 5850.0 6910.0 6911.5 7360.0 8040.0 9036.0 9122.5 9145.0 9295.0 11574.0 11578.0 12129.0 14483.5 kHz

Alabama NG 117 MedCo
8184.5 10530.0 11439.5 14757.0 kHz

Alabama NG 46th WMD-CST
8047.0 kHz

Lousiana National Guard
State HQ ALE Address: L060AN
4035.0 4924.5 5877.0 8047.0 12087.0 13722.0 14653.0 20906.0 kHz

Lousiana NG 1-244 AVN
5211.0 5778.5 5781.5 6906.5 11630.0 12129.0 kHz

Lousiana NG 62nd WMD-CST
8047.0 12087.0 14653.0 kHz

Mississippi National Guard
State HQ ALE Address: M040SN
4960.0 5847.0 8047.0 9121.0 9141.5 10796.0 10816.5 12087.0 13722.0 14653.0 20906.0 kHz

Mississippi NG 185 AVN
4960.0 10680.0 11578.0 11630.0 kHz