OUTLOOK
Cool and dry high pressure will continue to build south over the region today. The high will then weaken and shift south and east, allowing temperatures to gradually warm to near normal by the end of the week. Rain chances will be on the increase as well late in the week.
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News Brief
US-64 road closure next week between Buck Creek Rd and Brush Creek Dr [LINK]
Another COVID-19 Case Identified at Cartoogechaye School
Press Release, Monday, Sept 21st at 8:44am
Today we were notified that a positive case of COVID-19 has been confirmed at Cartoogechaye Elementary School. This individual is currently under quarantine. Contact tracing is underway through the Macon County Health Department. Any student or staff member identified through the contact tracing will be notified. Macon County Schools will continue to work closely with the Macon County Health Department as we monitor this situation.
General forecast through Thursday night
Today
Widespread fog, mainly before 10am. Otherwise, sunny, with highs ranging from the mid-60s in the higher elevations to the mid-70s in the lower elevations. Calm winds.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with lows mostly in the 40s to near 50 in the lower elevations. Calm winds.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy, with highs ranging from the mid-60s in the higher elevations to the mid-70s in the lower elevations. Calm winds.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with lows in the 50s. Calm winds.
Thursday
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 2pm. Cloudy, with highs in the 60s to ner 70 in the lower elevations.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 11pm and 3am, then showers likely after 3am. Cloudy, with lows in the 50s. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
HAZARDS
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
Air Quality
Air quality is in the upper range of green today as ozone and particulate matter levels are exptected to not be a problem today.
Pollen
Pollen levels are expected to be medium today (6.6 out of 12) with ragweed, chenopods, and grasses being the main culprits. Tomorrow is expected to be a little lower (6.1 out of 12).
TROPICAL WEATHER
(The North Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to Nov 30th)
Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan (video recoded yesterday afternoon)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Beta, located over the Texas coast, on Hurricane Teddy, located about 600 miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia, and has re-initiated advisories on regenerated Tropical Storm Paulette, located about 300 miles south-southeast of the Azores.
1. Showers and thunderstorms extending from the Bahamas westward through the Straits of Florida and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a frontal system. This system is forecast to move slowly southward over Cuba during the next couple of days, and then move back northward on Thursday through Saturday. Environmental conditions could be marginally conducive for some slight development over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late this week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
TROPICAL STOM BETA
Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020
There has been a recent increase in convection along the Texas coast just to the north of Beta's center this evening. A blend of flight-level and SFMR winds from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Beta's peak intensity remains around 40 kt. The aircraft has reported a minimum central pressure of around 999 mb, which is unchanged from earlier today. West-southwesterly vertical wind shear and land interaction should gradually weaken the cyclone over the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above model guidance through 24 hours since a significant portion of the circulation is forecast to remain over water. Strong vertical wind shear is expected to prevent re-strengthening when Beta moves near or just offshore of the Upper Texas coast in a couple of days.
Beta is moving northwestward or 325/3 kt. The tropical storm should move just inland along the central Texas coast overnight, but it is expected to become nearly stationary on Tuesday as steering currents collapse. A weak trough over the south-central United States should begin to steer Beta east-northeastward Tuesday night and Wednesday, and a northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed should continue until dissipation in 72-96 hours. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF models.
Key Messages:
1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall will also spread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end of the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is possible.
2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials.
3. Tropical-storm-force winds will spread westward across the Texas coast through Tuesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 28.4N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 28.6N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/0000Z 28.8N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1200Z 29.1N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 24/0000Z 29.5N 93.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 24/1200Z 30.4N 92.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/0000Z 31.7N 90.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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Published at 2:45am Tuesday, September 22, 2020
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