American Attitudes on Abortion

Quinnipiac has conducted a national survey that is quite extensive and includes a few questions on  attitudes toward abortion and here are the crosstabs of one of those questions:

57. Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?

Choices	Tot	Rep	Dem	Ind	Men	Wom	Wht	Blk	His
Legal all cases	22%	12%	33%	21%	20%	24%	22%	21%	19%
Legal most cases	33%	21%	40%	37%	35%	30%	32%	36%	39%
Illegal most cases	25%	37%	12%	27%	27%	23%	27%	20%	22%
Illegal all cases	14%	24%	10%	9%	13%	16%	14%	16%	14%
DK/NA	6%	5%	5%	6%	6%	6%	5%	7%	6%

Survey of 2,605 registered voters was conducted February 14-20, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 1.9 percentage points. Party ID: 30% Democrat; 28% Republican; 33% Independent. [Click here to see the entire poll]

Those opposed to abortion are losing the battle of public opinion and polls like this should serve as a warning that their current strategies and tactics in this culture war are not working. Those of us who are opposed to abortion should go back to the drawing board and develop another set of strategies and tactics if we hope to win this cultural war. 

There was also a question regarding Roe v Wade and 64% of Americans agreed with the court decision while 31% opposed.

I've broken down the numbers on question #57 a bit further:


Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?

• Legal in all cases 22%
• Legal in most cases 33%
• Illegal in most cases 25%
• Illegal in all cases 14%

Among Democrats

• Legal in all cases 33%
• Legal in most cases 40%
• Illegal in most cases 12%
• Illegal in all cases 10%

Among Republicans

• Legal in all cases 12%
• Legal in most cases 21%
• Illegal in most cases 37%
• Illegal in all cases 24%

Among Independents

• Legal in all cases 21%
• Legal in most cases 37%
• Illegal in most cases 27%
• Illegal in all cases 9%

College Degree

• Legal in all cases 26%
• Legal in most cases 36%
• Illegal in most cases 24%
• Illegal in all cases 8%

No College Degree

• Legal in all cases 20%
• Legal in most cases 31%
• Illegal in most cases 25%
• Illegal in all cases 17%

White Born-Again Evangelicals

• Legal in all cases 8%
• Legal in most cases 18%
• Illegal in most cases 41%
• Illegal in all cases 29%

 

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It's the End of 2011 (And the Politicos Know It)

One of the themes for my New Year's resolutions for 2012 concerns focus. One of the things I resolve to focus more on is posting more Linkfests.

To the end, here is a last linkfest of 2011 for you, focusing on...

The Republican Primary Contest

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The Iowa Caucus System Explained

The Iowa caucuses on Tuesday begin the process in that state that will result in 25 delegates being selected for the national convention. At the caucuses, voters will cast ballots in a presidential straw poll, and those results will get the most attention on election night.

Caucus-goers also will elect delegates to county conventions, who in turn will elect delegates to congressional district conventions and the state party convention in June. These are the conventions where delegates to the GOP national convention in Tampa, Fla., are selected.

Each of the four congressional districts will elect three delegates to the national convention. They will also appoint two members to a slate committee, which will choose 13 additional delegates. The slate is voted on at the party's state convention in June.

The system puts a premium on getting the most votes in individual congressional districts. If a candidate's supporters can control a congressional district convention, they can choose national delegates and slate committee members who support their candidate.

[Statesman] Wacky rules complicate race for GOP delegates

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[RCP Polls] 2012 Iowa Polls 

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A full slate of delegate candidates would be forty-one.

So which candidates were able to supply a full slate for Tennessee? Only one:

Michelle Bachmann: 0
Gary Johnson: 0
Rick Santorum: 0
Ron Paul: 35
Newt Gingrich: 34
Rick Perry: 27
Mitt Romney: 48

[Race 4 2012] Romney Proves the Point Again

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Ron Paul will hit the trail in Iowa on Monday with his son, Republican Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, to make a final pitch to caucus goers in the Hawkeye State.

The father-son duo will embark on a whistle-stop tour, visiting five counties one day before the nation's first Republican nominating contest on Tuesday.

[CNN Political Ticker] Rep. Ron Paul to make final push in Iowa with son

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WATERLOO, Iowa -- Rick Perry's events have taken a turn for the crowded. He'll arrive, typically, to find that a coffee shop built to accommodate 75 people is crammed with up to twice that many, spilling out the door and jammed into every available corner.

[CBS News] Can Perry's Recent Crowds Translate to Votes?

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"The dumbest thing I've done in the last four years was sit on a couch with Nancy Pelosi," Gingrich said, according to The Hill's Mike O'Brien. "I can't defend it."

In the ad, Gingrich and Pelosi share a seat on a sofa in front of the Capitol and declare that "the country must take action to address climate change."

[Huffington Post] Newt Gingrich: Nancy Pelosi Climate Change Ad Is 'Dumbest Thing I've Done In The Last 4 Years'

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To underscore her troubles, Bachmann has spent the past 24 hours trying to spin the fallout from her Iowa state campaign chairman’s defection to the Ron Paul camp — insisting repeatedly that the man in question took a payoff to make the switch. Another longtime staffer, who went public to defend the departed chairman, was gone from the campaign by late Thursday.

[Politico] Michele Bachmann's hard fall

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Rick Santorum participated in raiding the federal treasury as an earmarxist, perfectly happy to pork away on Pennsylvania’s behalf. He did not join conservatives who fought against No Child Left Behind. He did not join conservatives who fought against the prescription drug benefit.

Rick Santorum was part of the problem in Washington. He was one of the Republicans the public rejected in 2006. The voters in Pennsylvania rejected him in 2006 because of his and the Republicans’ profligate ways. Along with Tom DeLay, Rick Santorum led the K Street Project, which traded perks for lobbyists for money for the GOP funded with your tax dollars through earmarks and pork projects.

[Red State] Rick Santorum, Earmarxists, and the Pro-Life Statist

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Here's hoping that you have a Happy New Year and that the Republican nomination process is over by early March. I don't think the party can take a long drawn out process this year.

Herman Cain and Rudy Giuliani Viewed Most Favorably

Among Republicans/GOP-Leaning Independents Who Recognize Candidate

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Herman Cain 75%/14% {+61%}
• Rudy Giuliani 76%/18% {+58%}
• Mitt Romney 72% 19% {+53%}
• Rick Perry 68%/21% {+47%}
• Sarah Palin 68%/29% {+39%}
• Rick Santorum 61%/23%  {+38%}
• Newt Gingrich 63%/30% {+33%}
• Michele Bachmann 59%/31% {+28%}
• Ron Paul 56%33% {+23%}
• Jon Huntsman 50%/31% {+19%}

Source: The Argo Journal (more numbers for you to peruse)

Commentary

Notable to me is Rudy Giuliani being viewed more favorably than Herman Cain by one point. Only his higher negative rating keeps him in second place. I suspect that his high rating has to do with him not running. He has not been exposed to the relentless attack machines of the other candidates and the conservative base in the Republican Base, who have recently savaged Rick Perry from the top slot over the revelation that he supported in state tuition for the children of illegal aliens.


Mitt Romney, the presumptive nominee, is third on the favorable list. If two of the conservative candidates dropped out of the race before the primaries started, I doubt Mitt Romney could win the nomination.


Ron Paul is viewed unfavorably than any other candidate, only the fanatical devotion of a tiny minority who like him have kept him out of last position. One in Three Republicans and GOP leaning people do not like him. That is nearly double the number who don't like Mitt Romney. (Just pointing that out to the Paulbearers that more people dislike their guy than any other Republican).


Right now, I am thinking that a Romney/Cain ticket would give us the best of all worlds. This is predicated on the premise that Cain isn't destroyed by the other candidates before the primaries are over.

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Michele Bachmann Wins 2012 Iowa Straw Poll

Here are the results as announced on CSPAN of the Iowa Straw Poll:




4823 Michele Bachmann
4671 Ron Paul
2293 Tim Pawlenty
1657 Rick Santorum
1456 Herman Cain
 567 Mitt Romney
 385 Newt Gingrich
  69 Jon Huntsman
  35 Thaddeus Mccotter
 162 Scattering of candidates


What does it mean? 


In my opinion, it measures the willingness of a campaign to sell its soul to win a poll.

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A Lot of People Sure Do Miss President Bush

A CNN/Opinion Research Poll shows that Americans are almost evenly divided about who is the better President when given a choice between Barack H Obama and George W Bush. Over the past year, those who chose Obama dropped by 10 percent, and those who chose Bush rose by 11 percent. 


Here is the question and result...


11. All in all, do you think Barack Obama has been a better president than George W. Bush, or do you
think Bush was a better president than Obama has been?

Choice	October 2010	October 2009
Obama	47%	57%
Bush	45%	34%
No Difference	06%	06%
No Opinion	02%	02%

Download a PDF of the poll for yourself and check out all the other questions as well. 


Even Dick Cheney is howing a similar increase versus Joe Biden. 


Mua-ha-ha-ha!!! 

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Update on 2010 Federal Races in NC

With less than 40 days to go in the 2010 election cycle, time is getting short to get involved in the race of your choice. 


Here is a handy chart of the Republican candidates running for federal offices in North Carolina this fall, with links to their websites...

Candidate Office Website Richard Burr U.S. Senate Visit Website Ashley Woolard U.S. House NC-1 Visit Website Renee Ellmers U.S. House NC-2 Visit Website Walter Jones Jr U.S. House NC-3 Visit Website William Lawson Jr U.S. House NC-4 Visit Website Virginia Foxx U.S. House NC-5 Visit Website John Coble U.S. House NC-6 Visit Website Ilario Pantano U.S. House NC-7 Visit Website Harold Johnson U.S. House NC-8 Visit Website Suellen Myrick U.S. House NC-9 Visit Website Patrick McHenry U.S. House NC-10 Visit Website Jeff Miller U.S. House NC-11 Visit Website Greg Dority U.S. House NC-12 Visit Website William Randall Jr U.S. House NC-13 Visit Website

And here is an update on the fundraising race, and without exception, the incumbent leads the money race...regardless of party affiliation. 




Data courtesy of The Center for Responsive Politics.

Commentary

This will be a very interesting election cycle, especially with control of the House of Representatives expected to pass into Republican hands and the US Senate expected to remain under Democrat control. President Obama will see his legislative plans under fire and the Republicans will be seeking to defund as many of the already passed legislation as they can. 

Pollster.com graph showing most voters oppose Obama's Health Care Reform

The passage of the Health Care Reform Bill has essentially destroyed the re-election chances of many Democrats this year, and put Obama's Presidency upon the rocks. Many sleeping conservatives and Republicans have been spurred into action, and I'm hoping that we will see dividends of that awakening with the sacking of my Congressman, Heath Shuler, and his replacement with Jeff Miller.


However, none of this has come to pass...unless you cast your ballot on November 2, 2010. 


Previously:

Important 2010 NC Election Dates and Sample Ballots

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The HildaBeast Polls More Qualified than Obama, Romney, Gingrich, or Palin to be President

This is a nightmare scenario!!!


Here are the numbers:

Candidate	Qualified	Not Qualified	Not Sure
Hillary Clinton	57%	34%	8%
Barack Obama	51%	44%	5%
Mitt Romney	49%	32%	20%
Newt Gingrich	35%	48%	17%
Sarah Palin	26%	61%	13%

Source: Rasmussen Reports
Hat Tip: Drudge Report


It is still a year away from serious campaigning, but I think that this poll does indicate that the republicans do have some serious trust issues with the average voter. This is something they need to work on. It is a good thing that Barry is such a screw-up...otherwise we might not stand much of a chance getting a republican the next time around.

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Mitt Romney Wins GOP Presidential Straw Poll

The Southern Republican Leadership Conference had a straw poll that the Paulbearers weren't able to steal with their mobbing action. I hope that this marks the beginning of the end of such childish antics by those anarchists.

Initial Choice
(If the primary election for president were held today, for whom would you vote?)


Mitt Romney 24% (439)
Ron Paul 24% (438)Sarah Palin 18% (330)
Newt Gingrich 18% (321)
Mike Huckabee 4% (80)
Mike Pence 3% (58)
Tim Pawlenty 3% (54)
Rick Santorum 2% (41)
Gary Johnson 1% (3)

Given the distortion presented by the Paulbearers at such events, I think that we can completely ignore the presence of Ron Paul as a contender in 2012. I doubt that he would even match his results in 2008 this time around. Especially since Ron Paul finishes very poorly as a second place choice. I think it also makes it clear that Mike Huckabee should probably stay out of the race in 2012. I'm also gratified to see Gary Johnson finish poorly. He is a guy that could carry the insane Ron Paul agenda to the White House if we aren't too careful...


The straw poll had a question asking for the second choice. This is a good question, because it serves to indicate depth of support a candidate has for those who have someone else as a favorite. Gingrich, Palin and Romney are those candidates. Santorum, Pawlenty, Johnson and Paul are not. 


This is the field fared on the second question...

Second Choice
(Who would be your second choice in the Republican Primary Election for president?)
Newt Gingrich 20% (339)
Sarah Palin 20% (332)
Mitt Romney 14% (242)
Mike Huckabee 11% (178)
Mike Pence 8% (141)
Rick Santorum 7% (125)
Tim Pawlenty 7% (114)
Gary Johnson 6% (104)
 Ron Paul 6% (98)


The Republican Party has a long history of nominating the guy who came in second in the last nomination contest, and it is my belief that 2012 will be no different. The GOP Nomination for 2012 is his to lose, especially since Palin and Paul will be splitting the vote of those who might look to support anyone but Romney. 


It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next couple of years.

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Greenville, SC Leads Poll for Google Fiber

Imagine sitting in a rural health clinic, streaming three-dimensional medical imaging over the web and discussing a unique condition with a specialist in New York. Or downloading a high-definition, full-length feature film in less than five minutes. Or collaborating with classmates around the world while watching live 3-D video of a university lecture. Universal, ultra high-speed Internet access will make all this and more possible. We've urged the FCC to look at new and creative ways to get there in its National Broadband Plan – and today we're announcing an experiment of our own.

We're planning to build and test ultra high-speed broadband networks in a small number of trial locations across the United States. We'll deliver Internet speeds more than 100 times faster than what most Americans have access to today with 1 gigabit per second, fiber-to-the-home connections. We plan to offer service at a competitive price to at least 50,000 and potentially up to 500,000 people.

Our goal is to experiment with new ways to help make Internet access better and faster for everyone. Here are some specific things that we have in mind:

• Next generation apps: We want to see what developers and users can do with ultra high-speeds, whether it's creating new bandwidth-intensive "killer apps" and services, or other uses we can't yet imagine.
• New deployment techniques: We'll test new ways to build fiber networks, and to help inform and support deployments elsewhere, we'll share key lessons learned with the world.
• Openness and choice: We'll operate an "open access" network, giving users the choice of multiple service providers. And consistent with our past advocacy, we'll manage our network in an open, non-discriminatory and transparent way.

Like our WiFi network in Mountain View, the purpose of this project is to experiment and learn. Network providers are making real progress to expand and improve high-speed Internet access, but there's still more to be done. We don't think we have all the answers – but through our trial, we hope to make a meaningful contribution to the shared goal of delivering faster and better Internet for everyone.


Source: Google Blog


Below is the city I support for the project:







2000 people with LED Glow Sticks converge in Falls Park in Greenville, SC to create the Google logo in a bid to show Google how serious they are about attracting the Google Fiber Project. See more about their project at We Are Feeling Lucky.


I support the choice of Greenville, SC because it located in a business-friendly state, it has proven track record for attracting and keeping businesses in the area. Voting is open until May 6, 2010.  Vote.



As of 8.50 am this morning, Greenville, SC leads Asheville by an overwhelming margin.


110,881 Greenville
 60,696  Asheville


If you don't want to vote for Greenville, vote for anyone other than Asheville, because those of us in western North Carolina couldn't live (or grow crops) in the shadow of their big heads if they won. Their heads are already big enough, thank you. 


The running joke around here (I first heard it in elementary school) goes something like this:


Q "How can you tell if someone is from Asheville?"
A "They can't go five minutes without using Asheville in a sentence!"

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11th Congressional District Poll

**7.02pm** Erika Franzi of the Asheville Tea Party and Jane Q Public blog has a screenshot of the poll results at around noon. I'm hoping that she will make that available for public inspection. While we wait on that, Here is a tool that will allow you to explore the geographic voting pattern for this poll. 

Polls Powered By MicroPoll

Note that Dan Eichenbaum won every state. In North Carolina, he won with 39% of the vote among the 6 candidates, and he had 100% of the vote in every other state in the Union. Before I left home this morning, I posted the following tweet:

#NC11 Poll Results so far: [K West 36%][J Miller 27%][None 14%][G Newman 14%][D Eichenbaum 9%] #ConsNC http://bit.ly/d54JX7about 12 hours ago via web

Link to tweet. When Erika produces the screenshot she thoughtfully took around noon [see the first comment in the comment thread for this post if it disappears, I have a screenshot of that for archival purposes], we'll be able to see how things looked a few hours later. It will help me show that the supporters of (at least) two of the campaigns voted multiple times in the poll. The 1st time between 9am and noon, then secondly a push back in favor of one of the other candidates, and another push for the candidate who garnered many votes between 9am and noon. 

I have the IP addresses of the voters who voted more than once, and will be working to tie them to people, if that is possible.


**3.58** 534 of the 927 votes (so far) have been cast among 10 IP addresses. I'm taking screenshots to show how the vote is progressing so you can see how the multiple votes are being cast.

173.16.116.44 4
71.90.237.42 11
99.196.32.58 28
75.104.128.54 30
75.104.128.36 33
99.197.64.56 51
75.105.0.52 54
75.105.0.38 79
68.119.42.197 130
70.158.134.104 141

**2.54pm** Nearly 100 votes have been cast since I took a screen shot at 2.27pm...


Here is the updated list of IP addresses:


70.158.134.104 Hayesville (BREMC) 141 votes
68.119.42.197 Asheville 125 votes
99.197.64.56 Scottsville, Va 20 votes (Wild Blue Communications)
75.04.128.36 Scottsville, Va 15 votes 
99.196.32.58 14 Englewood, Co (again Wild Blue Comms)








**2.34pm** I've returned from Sylva and have taken a screenshot and Erika Franzi has taken one at noon and I've recorded the IP addresses of the poll participants. Three of them amassing more than 200 votes between them, and several more with more than one vote each.


70.158.134.104 New York City 141 votes (Another IP locator puts this one in Hayesville)
68.119.42.197 Asheville 99 votes
71.90.237.42 Asheville 9 votes
173.16.116.14 Sylva 4 votes


I'm still going through the list, but it seems that most of the multiple votes came from IP addresses in Buncombe County. Strange, huh?













Here is a poll to see where readers of this blog stand on the 11th Congressional District Primary. The poll will close at noon tomorrow, Friday the 26th of March 2010.



















For those of you who haven't done their homework, here is a list of the candidates (in alphabetical order) and a link to their webpage so that you can do a little research before you cast your vote: 


REPUBLICANS
Dan Eichenbaum
James Howard
Ed Krause
Jeff Miller 
Greg Newman 
Kenny West 




DEMOCRATS
Heath Shuler 
Aixa Wilson 

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Public Policy Polling: GOP Contenders Closely Matched

Public Policy Polling has released a poll of Republicans to gage support among Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul and Mitt Romney and found the field very close. Here is how they rank according to this poll:


28% Mitt Romney
24% Mike Huckabee
23% Sarah Palin
11% Ron Paul
09% Undecided
06% Someone Else


Hat Tip: Public Policy Polling
Related: Download the PDF of the poll

Commentary

We still have a year before people start getting serious and eighteen months before the primary campaign begins in earnest...a very long time in politics. We have to get through 2010 first.

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2012 Presidential Poll: Huckabee and Romney over Obama Palin and Petraeus trailing Obama

Mike Huckabee has a 45-44 advantage over Obama, aided largely by a 44-38 lead with independents. There continues to be no evidence of any negative fallout for Huckabee after murders of police officers committed by an ex-Arkansas inmate whose sentence he had commuted. His 35/29 favorability breakdown is actually slightly better than it was in November before that incident.

Mitt Romney does the next best, trailing Obama 44-42. His favorability is 36/32, and he's the most popular Republican among independents (41/32). Romney actually matches Huckabee with GOP voters this month and gets over 50%, ending a trend in his numbers that had seemed to spell difficulty for snagging a Republican nomination.

Sarah Palin trails Obama 49-41 largely because she loses 14% of the Republican vote to him, making her the only one of the GOP candidates we tested who Obama could get double digit crossover support against. At the same time Palin continues to be the most well liked potential GOP candidate within her party- at 71% favorability. Her problem appears to be that the Republicans who don't care for her will go so far as to vote for Obama instead of her.

Source: Public Policy Polling
PDF of Poll: Download

Commentary

I'll be posting polls from the other polling groups when I see them, in order to track the potential candidates vs Obama (or his successor) over time...

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Rasmussen Poll Report: Palin At The Top – And Bottom – for GOP Voters in 2012

It looks like trouble ahead no matter how you slice it...

Who would you vote for in the Republican Primary?

• Mitt Romney 25%
• Sarah Palin 24%
• Mike Huckabee 22%
• Newt Gingrich 14%
• Haley Barbour 1%
• Tim Pawlenty 1%
• Some other candidate 6%

Regardless of who you would vote for, which candidate would you least like to see win the Republican nomination in 2012?

• Sarah Palin 21%
• Haley Barbour 21%
• Newt Gingrich 15%
• Tim Pawlenty 15%
• Mike Huckabee 10%
• Mitt Romney 9%

Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)

• Mike Huckabee 78% / 17% (+61%)
• Sarah Palin 76% / 21% (+55%)
• Mitt Romney 73% / 19% (+54%)
• Newt Gingrich 65% / 29% (+36%)
• Dick Cheney 59% / 34% (+25%)
• Tim Pawlenty 38% / 33% (+5%)
• Haley Barbour 34% / 37% (-3%)

Source: Rasmussen Reports

My favorite part is how popular Vice President Dick Cheney is among Republicans. I view him very favorably myself.

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