Due to technical problems, the weather briefing for today will be truncated.
For those interested in yesterday's local COVID-19 numbers, check out [MaconMedia.com]
Weather Outlook
A stormy pattern will persist over the area into this weekend, with scattered if not numerous showers and thunderstorms developing each afternoon. Temperatures will remain above normal through Saturday. Cooler but still rainier weather will arrive Sunday with a stalling cold front and possibly the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred Monday night into Tuesday.
---BEGIN SPONSOR SEGMENT---
Weather Sponsor
Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing & public safety updates for the month.
Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC. Visit our Facebook page at: https://www.facebook.com/Adams.Oldcastle.Franklin.NC
All your masonry needs are available. Our phone number is 828.524.8545, the public is welcome, we’ll help you with your next project.
--- END SPONSOR SEGMENT---
Franklin area
Today
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 85. Calm wind. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a slight chance of showers between 2am and 4am. Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Patchy fog before 8am. High near 87. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 9pm, then a chance of showers between 9pm and 2am, then a chance of rain after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Sunday
Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 4pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. High near 82. Light south southeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then showers likely. Low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Highlands Plateau
Today
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 78. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a slight chance of showers between 2am and 4am. Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Patchy fog before 8am. High near 78. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 7pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 7pm and 9pm, then a chance of showers after 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday
Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 3pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. High near 73. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then showers likely. Low around 60. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Otto area
Today
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 85. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a slight chance of showers between 2am and 3am. Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday
A slight chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 9pm, then a chance of showers between 9pm and 4am, then a chance of rain after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday
Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 4pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. High near 81. Light south southeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then showers likely. Low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Nantahala area
Today
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 82. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a slight chance of showers between 2am and 4am. Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 65. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 2pm and 4pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 4pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 1am, then a chance of rain, mainly between 1am and 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday
A chance of rain and thunderstorms, then showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. High near 78. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 4am, then a chance of showers between 4am and 5am, then a chance of rain after 5am. Low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous weather is not expected today. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue for several more days. A cold front will stall over the area Saturday or Saturday night and linger through Monday, further enhancing the development of precipitation. The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Fred may move into the area early next week. Altogether, an increasing threat of localized flash flooding is expected over the coming days, especially in areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy rainfall.
Tropical Outlook
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fred, located about 180 miles south-southeast of southern Andros Island, Bahamas.
1. A small low pressure system located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity primarily west of the center. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. The system is forecast to move generally westward at about 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic, reaching portions of the Leeward Islands Saturday night, and Virgin Islands on Sunday. Interests in these locations should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Tropical Tidbits by Levi Cowan
Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft this indicate that Fred's inner-core wind field Fred remains poorly organized. Also, data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft suggests that the 650-mb mid-level circulation center is titled at least 40 nmi to the east of the low-level center. The maximum 925-mb flight-level wind measured thus far has been 43 kt and the highest reliable SFMR surface wind speed sampled has been 33 kt. A blend of these data support maintaining a solid 30-kt intensity for this advisory, but Fred is right on the cusp of regaining tropical storm status.
Fred has slowed down some more, with the initial motion estimate an uncertain 295/08 kt. The uncertainty in Fred's forward motion is related to the speed due to the low-level center jumping around every time a small convective tower develops within the larger cloud mass. However, the general motion of the wind field and the associated pressure envelope is toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees. Otherwise, there is no significant changes to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Fred is expected to continue moving west-northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a northwestward motion near or just offshore the Florida west coast in the 48-to-72-hour period. On days 4 and 5, a slower northward motion is forecast as Fred moves into a developing weakness in the ridge. The latest track guidance has become more divergent, with the GFS model dissipating and then redeveloping Fred over south Florida in about 48 hours, with the other models taking a weakening cyclone more westward. The exception is the westward-trending ECMWF model, which moves Fred along the Florida west coast. The new NHC track forecast was nudged slightly to the east or right of the previous advisory track after 24 hours, but lies to the left of the ECMWF model and between the NOAA-HCCA and TVCA consensus track models.
Fred is forecast to remain under the influence of westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear for the next 72 hours. It is the magnitude of the shear that is in question. The GFS maintains 15-20 kt of shear for the next three days, whereas the ECMWF model decreases the shear to around 10 kt in the 24-to-60-hour period, with the latter scenario favoring some strengthening if Fred doesn't interact too much with the Florida peninsula. Due to the uncertainty in the amount of shear and land interaction that will be encountered, latest official intensity forecast remains similar to the previous advisory and a blend of the HCCA and TVCA consensus model intensity forecasts.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. From Friday into Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, small stream, and exacerbated river flooding, across southern and central Florida, and into the Big Bend of Florida. By early next week, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont.
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Friday night and Saturday in the Florida Keys and portions of southern Florida, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. The risk of tropical storm conditions will spread northward along portions of the Florida west coast and to the Florida Panhandle Saturday night through Monday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0300Z 21.5N 75.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 22.2N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 23.0N 79.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 24.2N 80.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 25.5N 82.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 27.2N 83.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 29.1N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 31.8N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/0000Z 34.4N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
Published at 5:00am on Friday, August 13, 2021
Posts
0 comments :
Post a Comment