I am working on the template of this blog today in order to chase down some problems that have developed with my template and widgets.

Thursday, April 30, 2009

Swine Flu Infection Update

I've been following the reports of infections in the U.S. and preserving data for the purpose of analyzing the rate of spread of the Swine Flu on Conservative Thunder, and here is a very preliminary report based on 5 days of data...

And I've updated the graph...

The reason I've included the graphs is that infections tend to follow a predictable curve as they burn through a population, and I want to see if this one follows that trajectory...

One very good piece of news is that the infection has reached a status where WHO has declared this a Level 5 Pandemic so quickly after the initial reports of infection. If the decision is a scientific one, and not driven by politics...then that means the Swine Flu will burn out relatively quickly, even if there are multiple waves of future infections...this means that the Swine Flu will be unable to reach levels seen in the 1918 Pandemic. It will probably be unable to even become worse than the regular flu...which kills between 30,000 and 100,000 people a year in the USA.

If the decision to jump the gun was a political one, then all bets are still off.

What I would like to see is criminal indictments of people in the media for inciting a panic.