This is a mirror of an Open Thread that will be posted on our news and weather Facebook Page at 7 am this morning.
Entries will be posted below in reverse chronological order with the newest information at the top and the older information at the bottom.
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Live Blog for January 29, 2019
**11:27am** The forecast temperature crash is happening. Most places have dropped to between 36 an 34 in the Franklin area. Be very careful, as area roads will start to freeze in the next two or three hours and accidents may start happening.
**10:42am** **10:42am** Highlands has just a skiff of snow. See the Town of Highlands webcams at https://www.highlandsnc.org/cam
**9:40am** I think it is safe enough to take a nap so I can be rested up for the slick road follies later today. Back in a couple of hours unless something major happens. --Bobby
**9:35am** Here is a temperature graph from the last 24 hours at the Macon County Airport. Current temperatures are still above 38 °F.
**9:05am** Nantahala School has now closed for the day.
**8:57am** Back in the office. Jeb Walk canceled due to lack of snow.
**8.40am** The wind is starting to pick up with winds gusting in a 10 to 15 mile an hour range at the clock tower. The rain has also picked up.
***8:27am*** The snow totals look s like a bust. Now for the slick road follies later today.
8.15am.... so far it is just rain in the downtown Franklin area.
8.00 am.... town of Franklin crews are out applying material to the sidewalks
**7:45am** I will be out of the office for a little bit in an effort to capture photos and viudeo of the arrival of the snow. I will be on my phone, so my responses may be bit delayed for the next half hour to hour or so.
**7:35am** A diagram attempting to show what p[art of the system will impact Macon County.
7:18am** SCC has canceled day classes except for the Public Safety Training Center. A decision about evening classes will be made by 3 pm.
**7:15am** Schools in Jackson County have been closed for the day.
**7:08am** Remember the hazards from this storm won't be in the amount of snow we receive, but in the slick road conditions and then the cold weather that will follow over the next 36 to 48 hours.
**6:50am**
The NWS thinks we might not get as much snow as they forecast.
Forecast guidance from the National Weather Service in Greenville:
As of 632 am: The race is on between the area of precip expanding along the front over the Great Valley of TN, and the sub-freezing wet bulb temps moving quickly in from the Cumberland Plateau. Meanwhile, the analysis shows wet bulb temps hovering at or below 32F across the NC mtns above about 5k feet, which indicates that we are probably good to go with our snow fcst across the ridgetops/peaks. Some very light precip has already moved across the southwest mountains of NC, probably yielding some light accum across the ridgetops, but only very light rain in the valleys. The main band of precip should reach the mtns beginning around daybreak while the cold air comes in from the west through mid morning. To be quite honest, there's plenty to not like about this forecast. Precip coverage still remains underwhelming to say the least, while the cold air seems tardy. Not quite the anafront scenario that we had in mind. The first problem is one of QPF. The latest guidance continues the slow downward trend in precip amount potential. The second problem is the slowness of the cold air, but really this could just be a symptom of the model guidance overestimating how much precip would slope back into the cold air. Readers with a long memory may recall me saying a few days ago that expecting a precip changeover from rain to snow can be a suckers bet, and the trend right now is in that direction. All that being said, we can't (or won't) throw in the towel before the event has even started. Think it more prudent to stay the course at least through the middle part of the morning. We still have a forecast that supports a 3-5 inch total above 3500 feet across the Smokies, Balsams, and Nantahala mtns, and 1-2 inches in most of the rest of the NC mountain zones. Suffice to say, owever, as suggested by the previous shift, our forecast appears to be already near the top end of the envelope of possible solutions, so it is highly unlikely we will exceed those amts and have to expand any of our winter products. There remains a flash freeze potential across the mtns this afternoon so we will wait to see how that evolves with whatever precip we get today. No advisories are contemplated east of the mtns, where it seems increasingly unlikely that precip will still be around when the cold air makes it past the Blue Ridge. The forecast will keep a very brief window where a passing brief snow shower could occur, but with no significant accumulation.
Sky should clear quickly late in the day and early in the evening. Low potential for lingering NW flow snow potential. Temps will drop down well below normal early Wednesday morning. The strong winds overnight will yield a wind chill problem across the high elevations, so the ongoing Advisory for Wind Chill looks good.
**6:23am**
Here it comes!!!
Be safe, and stay off the roads if you can.
Macon Media will start an open thread within the hour.
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If you have a business or event you are interested in sponsorship opportunities or underwriting coverage, send an email to editor@MaconMedia.com for more information. Serious inquiries only.
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Published at 6:42 am on January 29, 2019
**7:45am** I will be out of the office for a little bit in an effort to capture photos and viudeo of the arrival of the snow. I will be on my phone, so my responses may be bit delayed for the next half hour to hour or so.
**7:35am** A diagram attempting to show what p[art of the system will impact Macon County.
7:18am** SCC has canceled day classes except for the Public Safety Training Center. A decision about evening classes will be made by 3 pm.
**7:15am** Schools in Jackson County have been closed for the day.
**7:08am** Remember the hazards from this storm won't be in the amount of snow we receive, but in the slick road conditions and then the cold weather that will follow over the next 36 to 48 hours.
**6:50am**
The NWS thinks we might not get as much snow as they forecast.
Forecast guidance from the National Weather Service in Greenville:
As of 632 am: The race is on between the area of precip expanding along the front over the Great Valley of TN, and the sub-freezing wet bulb temps moving quickly in from the Cumberland Plateau. Meanwhile, the analysis shows wet bulb temps hovering at or below 32F across the NC mtns above about 5k feet, which indicates that we are probably good to go with our snow fcst across the ridgetops/peaks. Some very light precip has already moved across the southwest mountains of NC, probably yielding some light accum across the ridgetops, but only very light rain in the valleys. The main band of precip should reach the mtns beginning around daybreak while the cold air comes in from the west through mid morning. To be quite honest, there's plenty to not like about this forecast. Precip coverage still remains underwhelming to say the least, while the cold air seems tardy. Not quite the anafront scenario that we had in mind. The first problem is one of QPF. The latest guidance continues the slow downward trend in precip amount potential. The second problem is the slowness of the cold air, but really this could just be a symptom of the model guidance overestimating how much precip would slope back into the cold air. Readers with a long memory may recall me saying a few days ago that expecting a precip changeover from rain to snow can be a suckers bet, and the trend right now is in that direction. All that being said, we can't (or won't) throw in the towel before the event has even started. Think it more prudent to stay the course at least through the middle part of the morning. We still have a forecast that supports a 3-5 inch total above 3500 feet across the Smokies, Balsams, and Nantahala mtns, and 1-2 inches in most of the rest of the NC mountain zones. Suffice to say, owever, as suggested by the previous shift, our forecast appears to be already near the top end of the envelope of possible solutions, so it is highly unlikely we will exceed those amts and have to expand any of our winter products. There remains a flash freeze potential across the mtns this afternoon so we will wait to see how that evolves with whatever precip we get today. No advisories are contemplated east of the mtns, where it seems increasingly unlikely that precip will still be around when the cold air makes it past the Blue Ridge. The forecast will keep a very brief window where a passing brief snow shower could occur, but with no significant accumulation.
Sky should clear quickly late in the day and early in the evening. Low potential for lingering NW flow snow potential. Temps will drop down well below normal early Wednesday morning. The strong winds overnight will yield a wind chill problem across the high elevations, so the ongoing Advisory for Wind Chill looks good.
**6:23am**
Here it comes!!!
Be safe, and stay off the roads if you can.
Macon Media will start an open thread within the hour.
CROWDFUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES
If you receive value from what Macon Media provides to the community, please consider becoming a supporter and contribute at least a dollar a month. Those who support Macon Media with at least a dollar a month receive early access to video of some events and meetings before they are made public on the website. Videos and news involving public safety are not subject to early access.
Patreon Subscriber History May 2014 to Present
If you have a business or event you are interested in sponsorship opportunities or underwriting coverage, send an email to editor@MaconMedia.com for more information. Serious inquiries only.
Thank You to the people who have been sending in donations and those businesses who are underwriting coverage of news and events. You have kept Macon Media online.
Published at 6:42 am on January 29, 2019
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