OUTLOOK
A weak trough pushing into the region will bring a short-lived break from the heat but continued afternoon showers and thunderstorms this weekend. A building ridge to our west will likely support a return to above normal temperatures early next week with afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day.
Most Recent Local Government Meetings
The Franklin Town Council met on July 6th. [LINK]
The Macon County Board of Commissioners met on June 2nd. [LINK]
The Franklin Town Council met on June 1st. Members of the public and local media outlets were allowed in the town hall. [LINK]
General Forecast Through Saturday Night
Today
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly in the afternoon. Partly sunny, with highs ranging from the mid-70s in the higher elevations to the mid-80s in the lower elevations. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before midnight. Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Some locations in the higher elevations could dip into the upper 50s. Calm winds. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday
Showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs ranging from the mid-70s in the higher elevations to the mid-80s in the lower elevations. Light winds out of the west. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Friday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 11pm, then a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday
A chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 10am. Partly sunny, with highs ranging from the mid-70s in the higher elevations to the mid-80s in the lower elevations. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Saturday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with lows ranging from the upper 50s in the higher elevations to the mid-60s in the lower elevations.
Hazards
Afternoon thunderstorms will again be possible this afternoon, with strong wind gusts and localized flooding the main threats.
Air Quality
Air quality should be in the upper range of green today for the county, including the ridgetops.
The warm, humid pattern with chances for afternoon showers and storms will continue today. An H5 ridge will continue to build over the upper Midwest, while high pressure offshore will allow for south to southwesterly flow to continue to introduce relatively clean air to the region. The incoming clean air should help to temper fine particle pollution levels, and although overnight and early morning hourly values may reach the upper Code Green to lower Code Yellow range, the day overall should net out to Code Green across the region. If there is sufficient afternoon sunshine prior to the arrival of showers and storms, hourly ozone levels in the Charlotte and Triangle areas could reach the upper Code Green to lower Code Yellow range, though the 8-hour Ozone AQI is expected to net out in to the mid to upper Code Green range.
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Tropical Weather
(The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th)
Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gonzalo, located a little over 1000 miles east of the southern Windward Islands.
The National Hurricane Center has begun issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Eight, located over the central Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next five days.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT
Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020
1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020
Surface observations and data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the area of low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico has developed a closed circulation and a well-defined center. In addition, recent satellite images show an area of deep convection expanding over the center. Based on those observations, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eight. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt based on the earlier reconnaissance data.
The initial motion is an uncertain west-northwestward at 5 kt. A subtropical ridge to the northeast of the depression should cause it to continue moving in that general direction through Friday as it tracks across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A slight turn to the left is expected Friday night and Saturday as a ridge builds to the north of the system, taking the center of cyclone across the Texas coast and then inland over southern Texas. The models are in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus models.
The depression is expected to be in generally light to moderate
wind shear conditions, in a fairly moist environment, and over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days, so some strengthening seems likely. However, since the depression is still in its formative stage, the rate of strengthening should be gradual. After the storm crosses the coast, steady weakening should commence. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows the IVCN and HCCA guidance.
Key Messages
1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it could bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a tropical storm watch has been issued.
2. The depression is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Louisiana and southern Texas. These rains could result in flash flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 25.9N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 26.3N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 27.0N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 27.9N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 28.2N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 28.5N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 28.7N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/0000Z 28.8N 98.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/0000Z 28.7N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
Tropical Storm Gonzalo
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
1100 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2020
A series of earlier microwave passes over Gonzalo reveal a small eye feature beneath a relatively ragged, Central Dense Overcast with associated -75.5C cloud tops. Based on the evidence of the small eye and a blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt for advisory.
The intensity forecast philosophy remains the same as the previous advisory with a higher than normal degree of uncertainty in the latter half of the period as the cyclone moves through the Caribbean. Gonzalo should remain in an environment of relatively low shear, although the impacts of dry, stable air and large-scale subsidence could hamper further intensification in a few days. It's worth noting that the ECMWF Ensemble model is showing a pretty significant low- to mid-level easterly surge that spreads just to the north of the cyclone's forecast track and over the northeastern Caribbean in a couple of days. This predicted event could possibly curtail strengthening at that time. On the other hand, with the exception of the ECMWF, the global models now show the cyclone maintaining tropical storm strength while moving into the eastern Caribbean. The official intensity forecast is adjusted slightly above the previous forecast, hedging toward the HFIP HCCA consensus and the IVCN multi-model intensity aid solutions. It should also be noted that the small size of this system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward and downward.
The initial motion is estimated to be due west, or 270/10 kt. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy. Gonzalo is on the south side of a low- to mid-level tropospheric ridge, and this feature should steer the storm generally westward at a faster forward speed for the next few days. After that time, a motion toward the west-northwest is expected. The NHC track forecast is nudged a bit to the north of the previous one and is close to the various consensus aids.
Interests in the Windward Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system. A Hurricane Watch is now issued for Barbados.
Key Messages
1. Gonzalo is expected to move near or over the southern Windward Islands this weekend, and could bring direct impacts from winds and heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude and timing of those impacts, interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 9.9N 45.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 10.0N 47.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 10.2N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 10.6N 52.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 11.2N 55.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 11.8N 58.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 12.6N 61.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 14.3N 67.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 15.6N 73.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
End Daily Weather Segment
Begin COVID-19 Update
Here are some numbers from the CDC, the NCDHHS, and the Johns Hopkins Dashboard. Macon Media prefers the Johns Hopkins Dashboard because the counts include those non-residents that are left out of the CDC and NCDHHS numbers.
The CDC website [LINK] reports 102,861 people in North Carolina are infected, 1,668 have died, and infections are widespread, the NCDHHS website [LINK] reports 105,001 confirmed cases from 1,491,820 targeted tests, and 1,137 hospitalized and 1,698 deaths in the state. The Johns Hopkins Dashboard [LINK] reports 105,276 people infected and 1,732 deaths.
North Carolina Coronavirus Map and Case Count [LINK] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/north-carolina-coronavirus-cases.html
Data from Macon County Public Health as of July 22nd and graph by Macon Media of data from May 30th to July 22nd [LINK]
Please note there is a gap for Saturdays and Sundays starting this past weekend since the health department will no longer be reporting numbers on those days.
415 Detected Cases (+8 in one day)
121 Active Positive (unchanged in one day)
292 Recovered (+8 in one day)
2 Deaths (unchanged in one day)
Testing Data for Macon County
3898 MCPH Tests (+84 in one day)
1006 Tests by Others (unchanged)
4904 Total Tests (+84 in one day)
351 Tests Pending Results (+11 in one day)
And here is the weekly demographic report from macon Public Health
Infographic from Johns Hopkins University [LINK]
Resources for Reliable Information about the Corona Virus (COVID-19) [LINK]
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Published at 4:30am Thursday, July 22, 2020
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