OUTLOOK
Now that Tropical Cyclone Isaias is moving away from our area, a more typical summertime pattern of afternoon and evening thunderstorms can be expected to return today, persisting for the remainder of the week.
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Closed Saturday and Sunday
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Local News Brief
Macon County Public Health has identified a COVID-19 outbreak in staff and residents at Drake Cottage, a congregate living facility. Four individuals have tested positive for COVID-19. [LINK]
The 2020 Edition of Pumpkinfest has been canceled. [LINK]
The Franklin Town Council met last night. [LINK]
Macon County Board of Education approves Plan B for upcoming school year [LINK]
General Forecast Through Wednesday Night
Today
Patchy fog in the morning. Isolated showers, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Otherwise, partly sunny, with highs ranging from the lower 70s in the higher elevations the lower 80s in the lower elevations. Calm winds in the morning, then increasing to come out of the west around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then isolated showers before midnight. Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. A few locations in the higher elevations may drop into the mid-to-upper 50s. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday
Patchy fog in the morning. A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs ranging from the mid-70s in the higher elevations to the mid-80s in the lower elevations. Calm winds in the morning, the increasing to come out of the southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday
A chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 9am. Mostly sunny, with highs ranging from the lower 70s in the higher elevations to the low-to-mid 80s in the lower elevations. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely before midnight, then a chance of showers between midnight and 2am. Partly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Hazards
Hazardous weather is not expected today in Macon County.
Macon County, including the ridegtops, will be a the mid-to-upper range of green today.
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Tropical Weather
(The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Isaias, located inland over southeastern North Carolina.
1. Showers and thunderstorms have mostly dissipated near a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda. Although a weak area of low pressure is expected to form over the next day or so, abundant dry air surrounding the system is likely to limit significant development. This system is forecast to move northwestward at about 10 mph over the southwestern Atlantic today, stall several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda tonight, and then drift southwestward on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Tropical Storm Isaias
Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020
NWS Doppler radar data and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Isaias re-intensified to a hurricane despite a less than impressive appearance in satellite imagery. The aircraft reported 117 kt winds at 700 mb to the east of the center, but these were not mixed to the surface by the weak convection in that area, as the maximum SFMR winds were 75 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is raised to 75 kt.
The hurricane is moving 020/19, and a faster forward speed is expected as the system moves farther into the mid-latitude southwesterly flow. This should bring the center onshore in southern North Carolina shortly, followed by a track through the mid-Atlantic and western New England states Tuesday and Tuesday night and into southeastern Canada early Wednesday.
Interaction with a strong jet stream suggests that Isaias should weaken more slowly than normal as it moves through the eastern United States, and this should produce very strong wind gusts along the mid-Atlantic coast tomorrow. As a result, the gust factors at 24-48 h have been increased above the standard 20 percent in the Forecast/Advisory (TCMAT4). The cyclone is forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low over Canada in about 72 h.
Key Messages:
1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along portions of the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways of northeastern South Carolina and the North Carolina coast, including portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.
2. Hurricane conditions are spreading into the southern portion of the hurricane Warning area and should spread northward through tonight and early tomorrow morning.
3. Isaias is expected to bring widespread sustained tropical storm force winds and wind gusts to hurricane force to the mid-Atlantic coast, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay region, later tonight and on Tuesday, which could cause tree damage and power outages. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across New England late Tuesday into early Wednesday.
4. Heavy rainfall along the East Coast near the path of Isaias will result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas, mid-Atlantic and northeast through Wednesday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic. Quick-responding rivers in the northeast will also be susceptible to minor river flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 33.8N 78.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 37.0N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0000Z 42.0N 73.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1200Z 46.8N 70.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0000Z 50.8N 68.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 06/1200Z 52.9N 66.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
End Daily Weather Segment
Begin COVID-19 Update
Here are some numbers from the CDC, the NCDHHS, and the Johns Hopkins Dashboard. Macon Media prefers the Johns Hopkins Dashboard because the counts include those non-residents that are left out of the CDC and NCDHHS numbers.
The CDC website [LINK] reports 125,219 people in North Carolina are infected, 1,969 have died, and infections are widespread, the NCDHHS website [LINK] reports 125,532 confirmed cases from 1,837,410 targeted tests, and 1,057 hospitalized and 1,982 deaths in the state. The Johns Hopkins Dashboard [LINK] reports 137,630 people infected and 2,043 deaths.
North Carolina Coronavirus Map and Case Count [LINK] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/north-carolina-coronavirus-cases.html
Data from Macon County Public Health as of August 3rd and graph by Macon Media of data from May 30th to August 3rd [LINK]
Please note there is a gap for Saturdays and Sundays starting two weekends ago since the health department will no longer be reporting numbers on those days.
460 Detected Cases (+4 since Friday)
70 Active Positive (-4 since Friday)
389 Recovered (+8 since Friday)
3 Deaths (unchanged)
Testing Data for Macon County
4218 MCPH Tests (+31 since Friday)
1427 Tests by Others (unchanged)
5645 Total Tests (+31 since Friday)
236 Tests Pending Results (-69 since Friday)
And here is the weekly Demographic Update from Macon County Public Health released on Wednesday, July 29th. The next demographic update will be on Wednesday, August 6th.
Infographic from Johns Hopkins University [LINK]
Resources for Reliable Information about the Corona Virus (COVID-19) [LINK]
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Published at 4:08am Tuesday, August 04, 2020
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