OUTLOOK
Abundant tropical moisture flowing into the area around a deep ridge of high pressure will maintain precipitation chances through Tuesday. An upper level high will strengthen Wednesday and temperatures will rise above normal into the weekend. The remnants of tropical cyclones Laura and Marco will bring higher levels of moisture and increased precipitation chances to the area by late week.
---BEGIN SPONSOR SEGMENT---
DAY SPONSOR
Carrion Tree Service is underwriting Macon Media for today. they are a fully licensed and insured tree service, specializing in dangerous tree removal, view clearing, pruning, and crane services with a 24 Hour emergency response.
Their phone number is 371-4718.
They can handle all your tree removal needs in good or bad weather.
---END SPONSOR SEGMENT---
Macon Calendar
1st Annual Radical Love Lobster Fest [EVENT PAGE]
SATURDAY AT 12 PM – 4 PM
What better way to celebrate Stephanie's 50th birthday than with a New England lobster dinner! Come help us raise money to support Smoky Mountain Harm Reduction and the free services we provide!
Place your order before Wednesday 8/26 at 5 pm and we'll fly your lobster in fresh from Gloucester, MA! On Saturday, you can either pick up your lobster steamed with an ear of corn and a potato or cook it at home yourself. Your choice!
All proceeds will go to provide life saving services to our most vulnerable folx in WNC. Questions? Call Stephanie at 617-828-9184.
Thanks for everyone's continued support as we work to together to keep our most vulnerable folx alive and healthy.
Macon County Cooperative Extension, Christy Bredenkamp will be hosting a Ginseng Workshop in September
The N.C. Cooperative Extension Service is offering a free seminar on Ginseng Production for homeowners who desire to grow “sang.” This program will be held on Thursday September 3 rd from 6:00 – 8:00 p.m. online via Zoom.
Topics covered will be: state regulations for growing and hunting “sang”, plant physiology, present and historical use of ginseng and comparing Asian versus American ginseng. Major time and emphasis of the program will be dedicated to the woods simulated cultural practices such as: site selection and preparation, sowing, harvesting, drying the roots and seed stratification.
To register go to the Eventbrite link at https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ginseng-production-tickets-115231454382
For more information contact the Macon County Extension Center at 828 349 2046 or e-mail Christy
Bredenkamp at clbreden@ncsu.edu
News Brief
Macon County Schools COVID-19 Update [LINK]
More Macon County COVID-19 News [LINK]
General Forecast Through Monday Night
Today
Isolated showers, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9pm, then a slight chance of showers between 9pm and 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 10am. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67.
Hazards
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast today. Some of these heavier thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall leading to isolated flash flooding.
Air Quality
Macon County, including the ridgetops, will be in the upper range of green today.
---BEGIN SPONSOR SEGMENT ---
Weather Sponsor
Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing & public safety updates for the month.
Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC. Visit our Facebook page at:
https://www.facebook.com/Adams.Oldcastle.Franklin.NC/
All your masonry needs are available. Our phone number is 828.524.8545, the public is welcome, we’ll help you with your next project.
---END SPONSOR SEGMENT---
Tropical Weather
(The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th)
Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Laura, located near eastern Cuba, and on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Marco, located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Tropical Storm Laura
Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020
Radar data from Cuba and satellite images indicate that Laura continues to gradually become better organized. Convection is quite deep on the south side of the circulation, and rainfall is likely very heavy over portions of eastern Cuba and Jamaica. A surface observation from Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, measured sustained winds of 52 kt with a wind gust to 63 kt a few hours ago. Based on this observation and the system's improved structure, the initial intensity is nudged up to 55 kt.
Laura continues to move swiftly to the west-northwest on the south side of a strong subtropical ridge, with the initial motion estimated to be 285/18 kt. The subtropical high is expected to expand westward during the next couple of days, and that should keep Laura moving fairly quickly to the west-northwest near or over Cuba through Monday and then across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. The models suggest that a gradual turn to the northwest is likely by early Wednesday as the storm nears the western side of the ridge, followed by a northward motion after that. The details of the northwest and north turn are quite important when trying to figure out where the core of Laura is going to make landfall.
However, at this time there is still a notable spread in the models and their ensemble members, meaning that it is still unclear exactly where the worst weather conditions will occur. The NHC track forecast is little changed from earlier and near the consensus aids. This forecast shows landfall along the northern Gulf coast in about 3 days.
The tropical storm is expected to move very near or over the entire island of Cuba through Monday, and the interaction with the island should limit strengthening during that time. However, significant
intensification is expected when the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico due to a combination of favorable conditions of low wind shear, high moisture, and warm SSTs. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Although not explicitly forecast, Laura could threaten the northwestern Gulf coast near major hurricane strength.
Users are again reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecast as the average NHC track error at 72 h is around 100 miles and the average intensity error is around 15 mph (13 kt). In addition, winds, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across much of Cuba through Monday. Heavy rainfall is likely across Cuba and Jamaica through Monday and these rains could cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and urban flooding. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas on Monday.
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the Middle and Lower Florida Keys on Monday.
3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain uncertain, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by Marco.
Interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Laura and Marco and updates to the forecast during the next couple of days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0300Z 20.1N 76.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR CUBA
12H 24/1200Z 21.1N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR CUBA
24H 25/0000Z 22.5N 82.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR CUBA
36H 25/1200Z 23.8N 85.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 25.3N 88.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 27.1N 90.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 29.2N 92.4W 90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 28/0000Z 34.2N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 29/0000Z 37.4N 83.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Tropical Storm Marco
Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020
Marco is feeling the effect of strong southwesterly shear. The center, as identified by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, is displaced to the southwest edge of the convective canopy. That said, Marco has not quite fully decoupled yet and has moved well right of the previous forecast. Data from the plane indicates that Marco has weakened; the highest flight-level winds were only 58 kt with unflagged SFMR winds just above 50 kt. Marco's intensity has been lowered slightly to 60 kt, but this is probably generous.
The intensity guidance remains maddeningly inconsistent. The most recent runs of the HWRF and HMON show that there is still a chance that Marco could reach the Gulf Coast as a hurricane, despite the shear. While this seems unlikely given the current structure of the cyclone, it also seems slightly premature to rule it out entirely. After all, the shear lessened enough to allow Marco to briefly strengthen after it was strongly sheared for a time last night. The rest of the guidance shows Marco weakening further as it approaches the coast, and this seems like a more likely solution. The NHC forecast just holds Marco at 60 kt for the next 24 h, but its certainly possible it could already be weaker than that. Rapid weakening is likely by 36 h if it hasn't happened sooner and Marco is forecast to become a remnant low by early Wednesday.
Marco's track is tied entirely to its intensity and structure. Once Marco becomes fully decoupled it will slow and turn westward. It is not out of the question that this could happen before Marco reaches the coast and the system never makes landfall. However, as long as the strong southwesterly upper-level flow contributes to the steering, Marco will continue to move more northward to north-northwestward. Due to the recent northward movement of Marco's center, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction, but it is blended to the previous forecast by about 36 h and onward. Confidence in this forecast unfortunately remains low since the model spread remains usually high.
It is worth noting that Marco is a small tropical cyclone. The large area of Tropical Storm and Hurricane watches and warnings along the northern Gulf Coast is a reflection of the unusually high uncertainty in the forecast, and it is unlikely that all of those regions will experience tropical-storm-force winds or life-threatening storm surge associated with Marco. However, impacts will likely occur in some portions of the watch/warning area beginning on Monday, and heavy rain is likely across most of the region during the next couple of days. Changes to the watches and warnings are likely on Monday and users should consult products from their local weather forecast office for more information about potential hazards in their area.
Key Messages:
1. Strong winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast beginning on Monday. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local government officials.
2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that may also be affected by Marco.
Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0300Z 26.8N 87.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 28.0N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 29.0N 90.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 29.6N 92.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 26/0000Z 29.8N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 26/1200Z 29.7N 94.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
End Daily Weather Segment
Begin COVID-19 Update
Here are some numbers from the CDC, the NCDHHS, and the Johns Hopkins Dashboard. Macon Media prefers the Johns Hopkins Dashboard because the counts include those non-residents that are left out of the CDC and NCDHHS numbers.
Earth
23,644,201 Detected Infections
813,581 Reported Deaths
USA
5,874,146 Detected Infections
180,604 Reported Deaths
North Carolina
CDC [LINK]
153,641 Detected Infections
2,521 Reported Deaths
NCDHHS [LINK]
155,113 Detected Infections
2,078,472 Total Tests
898 Reported Current Hospitalizations
2,531 Reported Deaths
Johns Hopkins Dashboard [LINK]
155,113 Detected Infections
2,531 Reported Deaths
North Carolina Coronavirus Map and Case Count [LINK]
Data from Macon County Public Health as of Friday afternoon and graph by Macon Media of data from May 30th to August 21st [LINK]
Please note there is a gap for Saturdays and Sundays starting two weekends ago since the health department will no longer be reporting numbers on those days.
514 Detected Cases (+7 in one day)
41 Active Positive (-1 in one day)
469 Recovered (+8 in one day since Friday)
4 Death (unchanged)
Testing Data for Macon County
4677 MCPH Tests (+65 in one day)
1680 Tests by Others (unchanged)
6357 Total Tests (+65 in one day)
123 Tests Pending Results (+28 in one day)
And here is the weekly Demographic Update from Macon County Public Health released on Wednesday, August 19th. The next demographic update will be on Wednesday, August 12th.
Infographic from Johns Hopkins University [LINK]
Resources for Reliable Information about the Corona Virus (COVID-19) [LINK]
CROWDFUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES
If you receive value from what Macon Media provides to the community, please consider becoming a supporter and contribute at least a dollar a month. Those who support Macon Media with at least a dollar a month receive early access to video of some events and meetings before they are made public on the website. Videos and news involving public safety are not subject to early access.
Or, if you prefer Pay Pal, try PayPal.me/MaconMedia
Published at 5:00am Monday, August 24, 2020
Posts
0 comments :
Post a Comment